4 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Despite the last 2 trading hours that I have to admit surprized me. Nothing has really changed. I don't like big white candles breaking several lines of resistance at once. Usualy not a good sign, unless you're long, but.... I am not going to position against internals. Its not a solid strategy. Yes, the market is carried by a shrinking number of stocks. There is plenty of short selling opportunities, since 50% of the stocks are now in donwtrends. Trading in the direction of momentum and summations has worked for me very well, and I see no reason to all over suddenly change that. I am however not going to add any more index shorts, since as I thought indexes are doing their own thing here. And may remain flat and volatile. And going to continue focusing on individual stocks. Plenty of winners out there. I have a bunch of profitable winners like MBI, ABK, STAR, BIG, HSY, KIM, CLAY, CHRW, BBBY, MDT and quite a few others already. A couple losers, like AAPL and GOOG, but these are 2-4% losers, comparing to 10-40% winners. If internals all over suddenly start rallying and momentum turns up, I'll reconsider. Plenty of time for that. If there will be a good trend in the making there will be time to make money on it. But I do expect the next trend to be down. At this point.... My indicators still remain short. Internals still erroding. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

[hiker]

1490 to 1550 trading range for now. with 1490 area tested over and over it seems lately. 1525 to 1550 not tested as often recently. must mean something...something more than the downside action has been shallow for now.

Edited by hiker, 06 November 2007 - 07:07 PM.

[ogm]

1490 to 1550 trading range for now.

with 1490 area tested over and over it seems lately.

1525 to 1550 not tested as often recently.

must mean something...something more than the downside action has been shallow for now.

Usualy the more one area is tested the more likely it will be broken.

My only concern from bearish perspective here is that price isn't responding as fast as indicators would suggest.

As in, with this setup the price should be in freefall, and its not. Its flattish. We are still not setup for any strong rallies. But as a possibility once the indicators turn the price may rally strongly.

That said... it is very possible that both indicators and price will just whipsaw the crap out of everyone.

Longer term indicators are now starting to roll over too.

But it took plenty of whipsaw action in 2000 to get the downside action going.

I'm not excpecting anything like bear market, though. at this point, Not yet. I'm only expecting test of 33/55 EMA on monthly charts (1290-1360 on SPX). We have plenty of negative divergences in price and internals on longer term charts to accomplish that.

[SemiBizz]

At a minimum... the Nasdaq 2861 volume high will be tested.

[tommyt]

"That said... it is very possible that both indicators and price will just whipsaw the crap out of everyone." that may indeed be what happens for the rest of the year, a grande trading range...internals pointing down, but price not going anywhere so far. Seasonals vs internals battle, and the 9 month cycle low due in mid December.