6 replies to this topic

[Regent]

CRB recently hit a 20 yr high and has promptly reversed. (Fib1618 in FF, in a recent post, forshadowed this occurrence with his observation of a significant intraday reversal of copper and nickel). What do you all think? Will the CRB adhere to its past behavior and drop for the next several years or is this an intermediate correction before it climbs again to challenge its all time high of 257?

[mss]

CRB recently hit a 20 yr high and has promptly reversed. -- is this an intermediate correction before it climbs again to challenge its all time high of 257?

My thoughts are it is an intermediate correction, but too early to know. The PMs had a huge run and must consolidate some, how much, time will tell. We should know in the next 5-10 days.
mss

[rono]

Howdy, From my perspective, it smells like an intermediate term correction, or backfilling, or consolidation, or whatever. The fundamentals are still huge. Hell, I added to my WHT yesterday because of the silver and copper. With the dollar showing some signs of strength, much of the action in gold, precious metals and the other metals, strikes me as collateral damage. I've been following the divergences, however, with keen interest - platinum, rhodium, etc. Most of the runnup in gold and much of the runnup in the CRB have been directly correlated with the decline of the dollar and have NOT been reflected in in terms of the euro. At the same time, the demand from our economy in recovery and the asians, particulary the chinese is HUGE and is not going away. So, I'd look upon this as an buying opportunity. best, rono

[Regent]

Thanx MSS and RONO for your input. I stand corrected, the CRB all time high is 334.8. I hold a resource fund that invests much in the base metals so I am a little worried. Fundamentally you are correct in that industrial growth in China alone could fuel base metal demand for years to come.

[rono]

Howdy, Well many of the natural resource/commodity funds have been on a tear. Those with heavy exposure to energy even more so. Pony Express Bob maintains a website that ranks all funds and ETF's by momentum. It's very useful for spotting trends - starting or ending. It also helps to spot new funds. Check the noload leaders, the etfs, and also check the trailers. Of note on the trailer board, the green lights are for junk. RS global natural resources RSNRX has HUGE upside mo which means they own a ton of energy. I'm holding Pimco PCRIX and US Global PSPFX and hold Price PRNEX and RS RSNRX in other accounts. And I wouldn't think of selling them for love nor money. Times like these are for adding. best, rono

[rono]

Sorry, forgot to post the link to Bob's.

http://customer.wcta.net/roberty/

best,

rono

[Regent]

Rono, thanx a lot for the URL. It should be quite helpful.