No replies to this topic

[TTHQ Staff]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (04/02/08)
www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 45 on 550 net advances
NASDAQ COMP. - 1 on 250 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


Today was a typical consolidation after a major upward impulse with numerous direction changes. There was one thing that we did like. Breadth was quite good and this shows good underlying strength.

Considering that Bernanke used the “R” word in testimony before Congress and stated again that inflation remains a problem, we thought it was a decent performance. We did get some help from the news. The ADP employment report was better than expected and Best Buy had a better than expected earnings report.

Gold had a big bounce, but it is still being governed by a pattern of highs below highs and lows below lows. Also, note that 6 day RSI has hit the oversold threshold twice. When an oversold condition follows upon the heels of a previous occurrence, it is usually a negative. We might add that a lot depends on the U.S. dollar which has an inverse relationship with gold.

Crude rallied sharply in spite of a bigger than expected inventory figure. This was disappointing. Bonds also gave up a bit.


NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Oil reserves rose 7.3 million barrels which was greater than the expected rise of 2.3 million. The ADP employment figure rose 8,000 which was better than the expected loss of 45,000 jobs. Factory orders lost 1.3% which was more than the expected loss of 0.8%. On Thursday we get initial claims and the ISM services index. On Friday, we get the dreaded non farm payrolls.



BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are back on a buy. Mutual fund investors are in a 100% invested position. If the S&P 500 is higher than 1371 at 4:00 Eastern time, buy the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY at the market on the close, MOC. Place a Three point stop immediately underneath.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. Stay there for now.



OTHER MARKETS

We are on a sell for bonds as of March 27.

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of March 24.

We are on a sell for gold as of April 1.

We are on a buy on Crude as of March 26.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.


STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

RANKED # 1 BY TIMER DIGEST

Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.

Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. The latest survey has us ranked # 1 for the past ten years.


TODD MARKET FORECAST
P.O. Box 4131
Crestline, CA 92325-4131
www.toddmarketforecast.com
e mail – toddmarketforecast@charter.net
phone 909 338 - 8354