Guardian Checklist for Thursday 4/03/08
Published Wednesday 4/02/08
by Mark S. Young , President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
Investment Management & Research
Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Positive.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Buy. The CBI was up 0.2 to 229.5, 0.9 above the exponential.This is Bullish.
Weekly MACD: Positive.
Bull/Bear Market Indicator: Bear.
Conclusion: We are still technically in a Cyclical Bear Market (though we may have turnedit). This is just a condition but it means more care must be exercised. The Seasonal Cycleis positive. The Weekly MACD gave a buy last week, which implies at least a couple moreweeks of strength.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Buy.
ITBM: Positive.
Summation: Positive.
KTT*: Neutral. Pending Sell.
CCI Daily: Sell.
10-day ARMS: Neutral.
MACD Daily: Positive.
21-day MA: Positive.
Conclusion: Longs are favored.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Sell.
VIX 30': Sell.
MACD 60': Positive.
Moving Averages: Positive (sorry for prior typo). Watch the 1344-1345 area.
Conclusion: Longs are favored. We are overbought.
Last time, I said that the market was overbought but that it could get more overbought. Itdid, before it pulled back very modestly.
I had been worried that breadth had not fully confirmed but now it has. More importantly,breadth was rather positive on what was a down day. This tells us that stocks are underaccumulation. All trends below the long-term are positive and confirmed. Now, we are stillin a Bear market, but this can change and it probably will, right about when we startcorrecting this rally.
The sentiment is still showing some pretty stubborn Bearishness. The message board pollsshow a ton of Bears. The Put/Call ratios are still showing no acceptance of the rally.ISEE is on an outright Buy. Folks, buy weakness in here. I suspect that we see new highsand probably surprisingly quickly. I think we'll have some trouble at 1425, but eventhat's not a lay up.
I think it's OK to take a few profits and I think that it's OK look for a pullback butdon't get out in front of this thing. The game has changed.
KTT traders are flat.
Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would likesomething that hangs onto bigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If youwant to know how I would trade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the followingtracking portfolio is it.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
50% long UWM at 50.61
I'm about fully long. I think that the Russell has more in it.
Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP
2) Rydex Naz Trader
1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program (Allweightings are approximate)
50% Money Market.
25% 2X Dow long fund
25% 2X Nasdaq long fund
We went into the 2X Naz fund at the early cut off on Monday. So far, so good.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long andshort funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net offees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for ouraccounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For furtherinformation, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Marginal Buy.
Rydex Asset Trigger: Positive.
MACD Risk Reducer: Positive.
CCI Entry Improver: Sell.
NDX Stochastic: Neutral.
0% Money Market.
100% Velocity.
Long 100% position in Velocity. I'm going to give it a little more time but we may bailtomorrow.
QQQQ Trading model: 100% long via the QLD at 68.32. We sold the longs from47.47 and 46.95 at 42.98. Dump when the NazTraders does.
Trading is not only risky, but tradingdifferent vehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount ofmoney trading options, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitationsthat must be understood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders shoulddiscuss the forgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't youradvisor unless you have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your owntrading decisions and results. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is noindication of future returns.
See our Web site for more
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
