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Intermediate Trend commentary

Today, 04:03 PM

Posted by Entropy3.0 in Fearless Forecasters
Looks an important week to me here on the Intermediate Trend cycle, so i've reviewed my  IT signal model in a little detail below for anyone interested.
 
Bottom line - I'm bearish the IT still here, and see high odds a move down to 2530-2550, but, also high odds a move to 2480 or even 2450 in panic move intraday ( not closing low). We can always bounce, but, I expect any bounce to be short lived, and limited to fib (50% max) retracements of proceeding drops. 
 
Shorter term - monday: there is one setup for a bounce monday AM to 2640'ish - then begin to roll over again, but also a setup for a big move down monday. Sunday night ES might shed some light on that. 
 
Of course, its a FED week, so maybe we get more 'games' and no resolution until post FED - but, that's about the only 'bullish' hope I can see right here. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------------------
IT  model - Liquidity(LQ), then Sentment, internals and price.
LQ - bearish for next week 
 
Sentiment -Investor/Money Managers
 
Trader sentiment-
 
Internals - bearish. 
 
Price Setup - bearish.
 
Bigger Picture - Still a bull? is it a bear?
I posted in spring a price pattern setup bullish into Autumn then sharp drop - see chart.
 
We executed that setup very closely, including the drop. I didn't show what occurs after, so,
it does not answer bull or bear. But I've said since October, I have us in 'transition period', which means
 - there was a possibility of finding an IT low before xmas, and taking a last run toward the High.
 - that possibility is low odds now, because as I said we have failed to trigger for an IT low.
Really, unless we crash, knowing its a 'bear' doesn't change much, the aim is to capture trades in BOTH directions whether its a bull or bear. 
OK but the pattern I posted and current patterns, what kind of bear market does it imply?
A reasonable high odds target of those patterns is SPX 2300, more likely 2100 area over 18month period. Then high odds a 3-5 year bull market to significant All time highs.
OK but first, lets confirm this actually IS a bear market! we don't have price confirmation of that yet on my signals   - I've got various high odds signals on price to confirm a bear market, but we haven't got any yet,  though we are very close - a close in December under 2500 for example would do it.
 
note. not even breaking 2500 on daily basis will put us in confirmed bear, it's more of weekly/monthly, so its kinda moot right now - the transition period into a bear, or out of it into bull, is the hardest to get right and I prefer to take each IT moves up/down as it comes, and use that as confirmation. Right now, we are still in IT downmove, and I don't have buy signals, so the 'bears have the ball' and we'll see how far they run.
 (* However, I would be remiss not to warn, there is a much more bearish alternate pattern, but that is now lower odds due to credit market signals I use, at least until 2025-2030 timeframe,  but, it will become obvious if this were playing out in due course )
 
 
Disclaimers: 
 - just my personal views, not trading advice etc etc ..u know the drill - 
- I'm very confident in my system, but I don't own the holy grail:- no one does, no one can say 100% what market will do. Trading is understanding there is always a  high odds, and low odds setup: betting on the high odds setup, and having a stop in case its the low odds setup. 
 - As per tag line, I can only trade my system and not worry about 'the news', other signals I don't use, or other opinions as that leads to analysis paralysis. 
- Every new trading session is 'new information' that can change/alter the signals/setups and high/lows odds.
- For the short term system, I can't show most of the signals, because I developed unique ways of viewing market that is edge. I utilize mostly the following: price, momentum, volatility, liquidity, sentiment and my own fractal method to generate 'setups' (as opposed to multiple counts).
Questions/Clarifications welcome as time allows. 

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China's Bear Market Started in 2015 (chart)

Today, 12:03 PM

Posted by SemiBizz in Fearless Forecasters

It's been a Bear Market in China For a long time now... and it looks like this is ready to go for 2000 support...

 

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  156 Views · 10 Replies ( Last reply by robo )

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Bear Update

Yesterday, 06:32 PM

Posted by RagingSpartan in Fearless Forecasters
Russel heading to 1350 quickly.

  351 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by LMF )

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This Week's Turn Risk Window

Yesterday, 02:27 PM

Posted by Douglas in Fearless Forecasters

According to my system, Thursday the 20th of December is the most likely day this week for a turn or acceleration of the current trend.  This window is a bit soft, so it might be better to say late Wednesday to very early Friday. 

 

Last  week's Wednesday risk window was a bull's eye with the turn in the DJIA occurring at about 1 p.m. that afternoon slap bang in the middle of the risk window.  I thought the turn would be a sharp, white knuckle affair since the next big step in my Elliott Wave Count is a 3 or C down (I stink at Elliott Wave, so please take my pontifications on the subject with a grain of salt) and I was expecting an important long term soft cycle low.  The window for that low closed on Friday the 14th, so that is in conflict with my expectation for a 3 or C wave down, so I'm all in a fuddle.  

 

Speaking of fuddle, Powell speaks this week on Wednesday the 19th.  Given his recent weak-kneed statements after the current little market swoon, I think you have to tilt the odds in favor of him going full on dovish in his December statement.  He appears to be cut from the same cloth as the last three stock market boosting FED heads more than willing to let the annuitants and savers just eat cake. 

 

Speaking of folks tired of being told to just eat cake, if you're still looking for that special Christmas present for any wide-eyed, radical friends, may I suggest a standard French road safety yellow vest (gilets jaunes)  which you can swipe from your next rent car in France or pick up for a few Euros at www.ebay.fr.  If I'm right about that big 3rd wave down, you might just want to buy one for yourself too. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

  150 Views · 0 Replies



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