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Note that the 50 ma has crossed over the 200 ma, the golden crossover. Gold is right on the downtrendline from 2011 (not on this chart) , if it can punch through this area it should really take off. Bearish opinions?
Though the May rally in the precious metals was constructive, we continued to see a lack of underlying internal trend support by the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line, and with the price of silver failing to match the amplitude in the run up in gold, the best interpretation for now is that gold has morphed into a trading range between $1200 and $1300 an ounce. This would actually be good news for the gold bulls for it would suggest that once this consolidation is complete, this pattern base will be used as a platform for gold to rally into the 3rd quarter. Until then, however, trading in the metals will tend to be choppy, if not volatile, with a tradable bottom for investors still scheduled for sometime around early August.
For those who may be interested, the current Precious Metals McClellan Summation Index reading is a +146 after crossing above the zero line on May 22nd for the fist time since March. Technically speaking, we would need to see this indicator move back above the +250 level to change the current intermediate term outlook from bearish to neutral, with a move back above the +500 level to move it from neutral to bullish. Any failure to move back above +250 would likely result in a challenge of the trading range floor at $1200.
65 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by claire )
It's been awhile since my last update here. As of May 26, the SPX (yellow line) continues to track somewhere between the two forecasts shown in the chart below. The blue forecast is based on SPX performance during the first year of the presidential term when the first five tradings days are positive. The green forecast is based on years since 1950 when the SPX is up 5% or more in the first 33 tradings days of the year.
During the first two months of 2017, the SPX appeared to be closely tracking the green forecast. However, since the Mar 1 high, the SPX has meandered sideways, and it briefly dipped below the blue forecast line in mid-May. For now, anyway, the SPX seems to be favoring the blue forecast over the green. As such, the blue forecast suggests the next opportunity for a seasonal low is coming in mid-June to early July. If we do indeed get a correction in that time period, then it should be bought for what could be the best rally of the year in July and early August.
As always, never rely on a single forecast/indicator. Do your own analysis to corroborate this work.
321 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by kssmibotm )
I have moved my correction time window forwards....not early June but mid or late June. My calculations are based on Europe which is actually more forecastable than the USA given that the American indexes are into unexplored territory while for example Milan looks like being inside a range. Also i' ve got an indicator for the Dax which is approaching the red hot zone marking LT tops. As it is a weekly indicator it still needs a few weeks to get there where the bull is over and I' m confident that it will work this time too. America seems unstoppable, but what if new systemic troubles start to emerge from Europe once again ? Or maybe China ? We' re not that far from a Summer storm imo. It's just difficult to calculate when because it's still early to say.