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Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (08/27/08)
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Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 90 on 1500 net advances
NASDAQ COMP. + 20 on 800 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bearish.
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


The action on Wednesday was surprisingly good, considering the fact that crude oil rose almost 2%. The main catalyst was durable goods. The S&P futures were down as much as six points overnight, but when the durable goods hit the wire before the opening, we saw an immediate surge.

Volume was light, but we’ve been impressed with breadth for the second day in a row. The advance decline stats were excellent. However, we still have that pesky little problem of tops below tops and bottoms below bottoms on the daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite and some other important indices. We’ll have to keep a close eye on this.

In the meantime, take a look at crude oil. It was up today on speculation that Hurricane Gustav could hit the Louisiana coast as a category 4 storm That is a severe one. Aiding with crude is the fact that it is just curling up from an intermediate term oversold condition. This could cause some problems for stocks, especially as we approach the seasonally weak month of September.

Oil, bonds and gold were all higher on the session. The dollar managed a loss, but a manageable one.



NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Durable goods rose 1.3%. The expectation was for a flat reading. Crude oil inventories dropped 177,000 barrels against an expected rise of 1.1 million. On Thursday we get GDP and initial claims.



BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in an equity mutual fund or ETF.

Short term ETF traders sold the Proshares ultra S&P ETF symbol SSO at 61.22 for a gain of 1.33. Stay in cash on Thursday.



OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of July 24.

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of July 23.

We are on a buy for gold as of August 21.

We are on a buy for crude oil as of August 21.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.




STEPHEN TODD : A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

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TODD MARKET FORECAST
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MBI intraday price today is above the March and April daily closing highs

also above the 200day sma for the first time in mos.

15.28 is the late Feb close high on the daily...vs. today's high of 15.66.

16.61 is a mid - January close high

no short inventory has been available for MBI in mos. where I trade.

first mentioned MBI here, after my buy stop was filled on the move above 14.69 -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...age_id=31788364

Can't enter or change chart attributes or stock symbol. Button to report problems doesn't even work. Anybody else having issues?

thanks
TM

stop at 1905

Unlike the other fractal guy, I use other indicators to give better match of fractal's validity (its worked out pretty good for me).

Try looking at S&P pattern between july to oct of last year to the pattern formed recently on an hourly scale. This pattern, some have labelled 'the sign of the bear'.

As I said before, the bottom is in 2-3 weeks.