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Eight month follow up to the December 27th buy signal.
After reaching the upside price target in gold of $1375, this months update shows that the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line finally broke trend on August 19th, and then really took it on the chin this past week from the heavy jawboning we heard on the interest rate front that eventually came to a head on Friday with hawkish talk coming out of Jackson Hole by the Fed Chair herself. The technical expectation for next week is for the precious metals stocks to begin to snapback to or toward its rising trendline marked on the chart, and then we'll see whether we get a high level consolidation or a change in trend in September.
As a follow up to the post I made in early February when I shared that I opened my position at $102 in December, I closed out my position in GLD on Monday at $127.60 when the SAR was hit that morning for a gain of about 25%.
65 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by dougie )
FED TO BUY CORPORATE DEBT? As Fed nears rate hikes, policymakers plan for 'brave new world'
Mired in a world of low growth, low inflation and low interest rates, officials from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank said their efforts to bolster the economy through monetary policy may falter unless elected leaders stepped forward with bold measures. These would range from immigration reform in Japan to structural changes to boost productivity and growth in the U.S. and Europe.
"What we have seen since 2007 is half-baked and half-hearted structural reforms. That does not help supporting inflation expectations. That has helped entertain disinflationary expectations,” Coeure said.
In a lunch address by Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future.
"Fiscal expansion can replace ineffective monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Sims said. "It requires deficits aimed at, and conditioned on, generating inflation. The deficits must be seen as financed by future inflation, not future taxes or spending cuts."
462 Views · 18 Replies ( Last reply by qqqqtrdr )
144 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by SilentOne )
My seasonal chart suggests that we move generally higher until about the middle of September then a big drop. http://www.markettra...m/seasonal.html
291 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by opinionated )
"THE CASE FOR UNENCUMBERING INTEREST RATE POLICY AT THE ZERO BOUND
Carnegie Mellon University
National Bureau of Economic Research
Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26-27, 2016"
Excerpt, p. 25:
"The balance of this section outlines three methods that would completely unencumber interest rate policy at the zero bound. The three methods in turn would: i) abolish paper currency; ii) introduce a market-determined flexible deposit price of paper currency; and iii) provide electronic currency (to pay or charge interest) at par with deposits, with or without the provision of paper currency as in (ii) above. Each method is assessed for its effectiveness, technological requirements, institutional modifications, potential for expedited implementation, and acceptability with the public at large."