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The risk window this week turned out to be an acceleration event. I believe these occur when traders get set up for a turn which doesn't happen forcing them to cover and reverse adding fuel to the rally fire. As far as risk windows go, next week is an 8 pane doozy. The risk cycle turns are scattered across the week, so multiple turns and acceleration events are possible. Given the FED decision, Wednesday probably is the highest risk day, since even this Helen Keller FED must see the bubble they've blown.
The trend following trading system is still long and loving it, but the sell trigger is again set just waiting for the tight stop to be crossed. Good luck this week especially anyone short volatility and low on nitroglycerin pills.
(in my best whisper tone)..."snapback complete".
78 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by fib_1618 )
there are cosmic forces at work here that we are not aware of. the universe is a mathematical model as are the market . oh that we can see it ha ha
to be able to put emotions aside and see deeply not clouded by our biases
interesting things lie in our collective future as humanity i truly hope for the best
just something that you get a glimpse of every once in a great while doesnt happen that often
may we all have a great and profitable year trading the markets
173 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by gannman )
in july of 2014 the gdxj peaked at 46.5 and bottomed in nov about 4 months later at 22.3
for a percentage loss of about 55 %
in 2016 we peaked at 52.5 and we have dropped to 32.8 for a loss of about 38 %
this is a corrective wave and NOT an impulse wave if it was an impulse wave we would have given all the gains back
that is the way i see it fwiw and i think we bottom this week
The government bond to stock rally has been a sight to behold ever since the election. The 30 year treasury yield minus the dividend yield on the S&P 100 looks like it is close to a minor resistance at 1.6 which is the high of 2015 which was after the yuan-induced market swoon.
Larry Kudlow had some commentary about the United States treasury issuing 100 year bonds. Although treasuries have already fallen a lot from the peak, they have way more room to fall to get to relative stock-to-treasury valuations similar to 2007, and that is the scary part. It's not a "safe" asset by any means.