19 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

hey senor, how do you play the gold market primarily, with futures, stocks, etf's or ?

which one is best in your opinion

tradesurfer

Perhaps I can offer some insight into Senor's picks for trading. He often gives them when he posts. After reading Senor's BS for some years now he generally does not trade individual companies, rather, etf's such as GDX, SLV, GLD, CEF. Hope that helps.
Best to you

[beta]

Brilliant timing on yesterday's buys as always, Senor ! GLD 88.5/ HUI 442 are the key pivots that bulls must take out to prove their case. Until then, it's a correction imo.

[senorBS]

Brilliant timing on yesterday's buys as always, Senor !

GLD 88.5/ HUI 442 are the key pivots that bulls must take out to prove their case.

Until then, it's a correction imo.

Si amigo, those are bueno levels and Senor agrees. Stops have been raised and placed.

BS is beautiful

Senor

[dougie]

Beta: what you see at 422? why not 433 (ewave 1 low?) quote name='beta' date='May 8 2008, 11:06 AM' post='371579'] Brilliant timing on yesterday's buys as always, Senor ! GLD 88.5/ HUI 442 are the key pivots that bulls must take out to prove their case. Until then, it's a correction imo. [/quote]

[beta]

Beta: what you see at 422? why not 433 (ewave 1 low?)


quote name='beta' date='May 8 2008, 11:06 AM' post='371579']
Brilliant timing on yesterday's buys as always, Senor !

GLD 88.5/ HUI 442 are the key pivots that bulls must take out to prove their case.

Until then, it's a correction imo.

It's actually 442 (see post above) -- TL resistance.

[gvc]

jordan roy-byrne:


http://www.safehaven...ticle-10203.htm


...."The conclusion though couldn't be clearer. The last four tops in Oil occurred almost simultaneously with bottoms in the Gold/Oil ratio, which correlates strongly to the performance of gold stocks against Gold.

Oil is coming up against very strong Fibonacci resistance at $124 to $125 as both the Gdx/Gld and Gold/Oil ratios are at 52-week lows. All the evidence considered, there is very strong evidence that investors are staring in the face the best buying opportunity for gold shares since May 2005 and late 2000. While I have been eagerly anticipating this point since summer 2006, I pointed out in my 2008 Market Outlook that Oil was the single last market for Gold to "best" on a relative basis. Look for the bottom (on Gold/Oil) that was put in yesterday (May 7) to hold, and look for the mining shares to lead the metals to new highs...."

[dougie]

Beta; oops my bad and thanks.

[outsider]

Hulbert report is also bullish:

http://online.barron...html?mod=djemBF

Not that any of these guys are matching Senor's current streak and overall trading record....

Out

[senorBS]

Hulbert report is also bullish:

http://online.barron...html?mod=djemBF

Not that any of these guys are matching Senor's current streak and overall trading record....

Out

Bueno info amigo and that does offer bueno support for maybe a continuing rally, the GDX is at muy importante resistance and Senor will be watching muy closely.

BSing away

Senor

[scott in Wisconsin]

Hulbert report is also bullish:

http://online.barron...html?mod=djemBF

Not that any of these guys are matching Senor's current streak and overall trading record....

Out

This report may be bullish, but if you read the details, it's not predicting much of a move!

Here's the deal. He's suggesting Gold will be up 1% over the next 30 days, if History is any guide.

And if the sentiment numbers were totally reversed? Gold would be flat for the next 30 days.

(Typical gain for the next 30 days over the last 20 years? 4.4% annual, or $3.50)

I don't think anyone here is buying, because he believes gold will be $9 higher in 30 days, rather than up $3.50, or flat.

Just my 2 cents.


Here's the meat of the article:

The Hulbert Financial Digest has rigorously analyzed the HGNSI back to the 1980s, studying the correlations that exist between high and low sentiment levels and how gold bullion has performed over subsequent weeks and months. These correlations are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to assess whether patterns are genuine.

To illustrate, consider first the 10% of weeks since 1985 in which the HGNSI was as low as it is currently, or lower. (About 120 individual weeks are included in this decile.) Over the 30 days following each of these instances, gold bullion produced an average annualized return of 14.1%.

That's a lot better than the 4.4% average annualized produced by gold over the entire period since the beginning of 1985.

Now consider how gold bullion performed in the wake of sentiment readings at the opposite end of the spectrum -- when the typical timer was quite exuberant, in other words. On average following the 10% of weeks since 1985 in which the HGNSI was highest, gold bullion produced an annualized loss of 1.4%.

That's markedly worse than average.



scott