Fluctuating energy from the sun
Reflected by the clouds and volcanic emissions
Stored in the oceans and urban heat islands
page 2 of:
http://www.mfa.bc.ca.....arch 2008.pdf
& Maybe some seismic surprises as we approach perihelion in January?
Climate: The Drivers
Started by
stocks
, Jul 10 2008 03:35 PM
3 replies to this topic
#1
stocks
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Posted 10 July 2008 - 03:35 PM
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#2
stocks
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Posted 13 July 2008 - 08:34 AM
As a dissenting physicist, I simply can no longer buy the notion that CO2 produces any significant warming of the atmosphere at any rate. I've studied the atomic absorption physics to death, from John Nicol's extensive development to the much longer winded dissertation by Gerlich & Tscheuschner and everything in between, it simply doesn't add up. Even if every single IR photon absorbed by a CO2 molecule were magically transformed into purely thermal translational modes , the pitifully small quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere doesn't add up to much additional heat. And if the aforementioned magical 100% transformation from radiation into "heat" were true, then all arguments concerning re-emission ( source of all the wonderful "greenhouse effect" cartoons with their arrows flying in all directions ) are out the window.
More and more, I am becoming convinced that atmospheric heating is primarily by thermal conduction from the surface, whose temperature is determined primarily by solar absorption. I get a lot of email from laymen seeking simple answers ( I'm sure you all do as well ). My simple reply goes like this:
1. The sun heats the earth.
2. The earth heats the atmosphere
3. After the sun sets, the atmosphere cools back down
With a parting comment: "If we were to have 96 continuous hours without sunlight, temperatures would likely be below freezing over all the world's land masses. The warmest place you could find would be to take a swim in the nearest ocean. There is no physical process in the atmosphere which "traps" heat. The so-called "greenhouse effect " is a myth."
http://www.middlebur...warming-01.html
More and more, I am becoming convinced that atmospheric heating is primarily by thermal conduction from the surface, whose temperature is determined primarily by solar absorption. I get a lot of email from laymen seeking simple answers ( I'm sure you all do as well ). My simple reply goes like this:
1. The sun heats the earth.
2. The earth heats the atmosphere
3. After the sun sets, the atmosphere cools back down
With a parting comment: "If we were to have 96 continuous hours without sunlight, temperatures would likely be below freezing over all the world's land masses. The warmest place you could find would be to take a swim in the nearest ocean. There is no physical process in the atmosphere which "traps" heat. The so-called "greenhouse effect " is a myth."
http://www.middlebur...warming-01.html
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#3
stocks
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Member
Posted 13 July 2008 - 04:47 PM
Allan MR MacRae (13:41:41) :
Lower Troposphere Global Average Temperature has cooled ~0.7C since January 2007:
2007 1 0.594
2007 2 0.45
2007 3 0.403
2007 4 0.244
2007 5 0.199
2007 6 0.203
2007 7 0.255
2007 8 0.286
2007 9 0.201
2007 10 0.231
2007 11 0.209
2007 12 0.114
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.02
2008 3 0.089
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.18
2008 6 -0.114
The world is getting much colder. How much colder? ALL the alleged humanmade global warming since ~1940 or perhaps even since 1900 has been nullified, since just January 2007. Humanmade CO2 emissions have increased more than 700% since 1940, and more than 1700% since 1900.
What does this prove? These facts demonstrate that global temperature has NO significant sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO2, which is the main point that climate skeptics have been stating all along.
The science is settled, truly, but not as Al Gore has stated. There is in fact no significant humanmade global warming. The warming we have experienced since the mid-1970s is natural and cyclical.
Global warming, humanmade or otherwise, is the last thing we need to worry about as a society. Global cooling, should it continue to the depths of a Dalton Minimum (as some scientists are predicting), may be the greatest crisis to face humanity in centuries. The irony is that we are likely to be unprepared for global cooling, as our governments continue to obsess on the nonexistent global warming crisis.
Regards, Allan
P.S. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):
In ~1905, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer.
In ~1946, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got colder.
In ~1977, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer again.
In ~2007-08, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got much colder.
NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING SINCE AT LEAST ~1940
Posted with figures and sources May 24, 2008 at
http://www.iberica20...ulo.asp?Id=3774
Excerpt:
The evidence to date suggests that increased atmospheric CO2 plays NO significant role in causing global warming.
The best data shows no significant warming since ~1940. The lack of significant warming is evident in UAH Lower Troposphere temperature data from ~1980 to end April 2008, and Hadcrut3 Surface Temperature data from ~1940 to ~1980.
Chart: The global cooling from approximately 1946-1977 coincides with the cool phase of a natural cycle called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the warming from approximately 1977-2007 coincides with the warming phase of the PDO. NASA announced in 2008 that the PDO has again shifted to its cool phase. Significant cooling was experienced in 2007-2008, and is expected to continue.
Furthermore, it is clear that CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales, from ice core data spanning thousands of years to sub-decadal trends - the latter as stated in my January 31, 2008 paper and previously by Kuo (1990) and Keeling (1995) .
In late November 2007 Pieter Tans described the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, about one month before I made a similar finding. This is a further step forward in our understanding.
Figure 3 from my 2008 paper shows the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, and the approximate 9 month lag of CO2 after temperature.
Finally, human-made CO2 emissions have increased ~700% since 1940.
This data consistently suggests that the sensitivity of global temperature to increased atmospheric CO2 is near-zero, and thus there is no human-made catastrophic global warming crisis.
Allan MacRae, Calgary
May 24th, 2008
Data sources:
LT data: http://www.atmos.uah...t/tltglhmam_5.2
ST data: http://www.cru.uea.a.../hadcrut3gl.txt
My paper: http://icecap.us/ima...O2vsTMacRae.pdf
Tans paper: http://esrl.noaa.gov...nce/agenda.html
CO2 data from CDIAC: http://cdiac.ornl.go...l.1751_2004.ems
Further explanation:
There has been very significant Lower Troposphere (LT) cooling in the past 18 months. This cooling has also been observed in the Surface Temperature (ST), but that data is much less reliable, as further discussed further below.
The average LT global temperature anomaly for the four months January-April 2008 (inclusive) is +0.02 degrees C.
The average LT global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.09 degrees C.
The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.08 degrees C.
The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1940 is +0.02 degrees C.
By no significant warming, I mean no net average global warming between 1940 and 2008, as measured by our best instruments. There has been some cooling and warming and very recent cooling again, but not much net change since 1940.
Some observers might want to (erroneously, imo) use the ST data exclusively, to prove that warming has occurred. The 1980-to-present ST data exhibits a strong and misleading warming bias, as demonstrated by Michaels and McKitrick (2007) and others. Although the monthly variations in the ST and LT data match very well, the two plots diverge, with ST rising above LT. I sincerely doubt that this divergence is a long-term reality, since it would suggest that the surface has warmed significantly more than the Lower Troposphere over the past few decades.
For a comparison of ST and LT data, see Figure 1 of my January 31, 2008 paper.
********************************************************************************
**
Lower Troposphere Global Average Temperature has cooled ~0.7C since January 2007:
2007 1 0.594
2007 2 0.45
2007 3 0.403
2007 4 0.244
2007 5 0.199
2007 6 0.203
2007 7 0.255
2007 8 0.286
2007 9 0.201
2007 10 0.231
2007 11 0.209
2007 12 0.114
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.02
2008 3 0.089
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.18
2008 6 -0.114
The world is getting much colder. How much colder? ALL the alleged humanmade global warming since ~1940 or perhaps even since 1900 has been nullified, since just January 2007. Humanmade CO2 emissions have increased more than 700% since 1940, and more than 1700% since 1900.
What does this prove? These facts demonstrate that global temperature has NO significant sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO2, which is the main point that climate skeptics have been stating all along.
The science is settled, truly, but not as Al Gore has stated. There is in fact no significant humanmade global warming. The warming we have experienced since the mid-1970s is natural and cyclical.
Global warming, humanmade or otherwise, is the last thing we need to worry about as a society. Global cooling, should it continue to the depths of a Dalton Minimum (as some scientists are predicting), may be the greatest crisis to face humanity in centuries. The irony is that we are likely to be unprepared for global cooling, as our governments continue to obsess on the nonexistent global warming crisis.
Regards, Allan
P.S. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):
In ~1905, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer.
In ~1946, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got colder.
In ~1977, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer again.
In ~2007-08, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got much colder.
NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING SINCE AT LEAST ~1940
Posted with figures and sources May 24, 2008 at
http://www.iberica20...ulo.asp?Id=3774
Excerpt:
The evidence to date suggests that increased atmospheric CO2 plays NO significant role in causing global warming.
The best data shows no significant warming since ~1940. The lack of significant warming is evident in UAH Lower Troposphere temperature data from ~1980 to end April 2008, and Hadcrut3 Surface Temperature data from ~1940 to ~1980.
Chart: The global cooling from approximately 1946-1977 coincides with the cool phase of a natural cycle called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the warming from approximately 1977-2007 coincides with the warming phase of the PDO. NASA announced in 2008 that the PDO has again shifted to its cool phase. Significant cooling was experienced in 2007-2008, and is expected to continue.
Furthermore, it is clear that CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales, from ice core data spanning thousands of years to sub-decadal trends - the latter as stated in my January 31, 2008 paper and previously by Kuo (1990) and Keeling (1995) .
In late November 2007 Pieter Tans described the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, about one month before I made a similar finding. This is a further step forward in our understanding.
Figure 3 from my 2008 paper shows the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, and the approximate 9 month lag of CO2 after temperature.
Finally, human-made CO2 emissions have increased ~700% since 1940.
This data consistently suggests that the sensitivity of global temperature to increased atmospheric CO2 is near-zero, and thus there is no human-made catastrophic global warming crisis.
Allan MacRae, Calgary
May 24th, 2008
Data sources:
LT data: http://www.atmos.uah...t/tltglhmam_5.2
ST data: http://www.cru.uea.a.../hadcrut3gl.txt
My paper: http://icecap.us/ima...O2vsTMacRae.pdf
Tans paper: http://esrl.noaa.gov...nce/agenda.html
CO2 data from CDIAC: http://cdiac.ornl.go...l.1751_2004.ems
Further explanation:
There has been very significant Lower Troposphere (LT) cooling in the past 18 months. This cooling has also been observed in the Surface Temperature (ST), but that data is much less reliable, as further discussed further below.
The average LT global temperature anomaly for the four months January-April 2008 (inclusive) is +0.02 degrees C.
The average LT global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.09 degrees C.
The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.08 degrees C.
The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1940 is +0.02 degrees C.
By no significant warming, I mean no net average global warming between 1940 and 2008, as measured by our best instruments. There has been some cooling and warming and very recent cooling again, but not much net change since 1940.
Some observers might want to (erroneously, imo) use the ST data exclusively, to prove that warming has occurred. The 1980-to-present ST data exhibits a strong and misleading warming bias, as demonstrated by Michaels and McKitrick (2007) and others. Although the monthly variations in the ST and LT data match very well, the two plots diverge, with ST rising above LT. I sincerely doubt that this divergence is a long-term reality, since it would suggest that the surface has warmed significantly more than the Lower Troposphere over the past few decades.
For a comparison of ST and LT data, see Figure 1 of my January 31, 2008 paper.
********************************************************************************
**
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#4
stocks
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- Traders-Talk User
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Member
Posted 21 August 2008 - 03:28 PM
& Maybe some seismic surprises as we approach perihelion in January?
The August 7-8 eruption of Kasatochi volcano (Aleutian Islands)produced a very large stratospheric SO2 cloud - possibly the largest since the August 1991 eruption of Hudson (Chile). Preliminary SO2 mass calculations using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data suggest a total SO2 burden of ~1.5 Tg. This figure will be revised in the coming weeks but is more likely to go up than down. The SO2 cloud has drifted over a large area of North America and is now (August 14) reaching Europe.
It seems like Kasatochi has released quite a large flux of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. What effect this might have on climate is hard to tell, typically large SO2 fluxes will lower global temperature (or at least hemispheric temperature) by a fraction of a degree annually - which can actually still have a perceivable effect on weather.
http://eruptions.wor...from-kasatochi/
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
