16 replies to this topic

[Woody]

http://stockcharts.c...1807071&r=4.png

[senorBS]

whatever makes your day, looks like a lot of BS to Senor. NO BS Senor

[Woody]

whatever makes your day, looks like a lot of BS to Senor.

NO BS

Senor

was hoping that Senor (and/or Dharma) would use their expertise and indicate why these counts were not very likely

[dharma]

whatever makes your day, looks like a lot of BS to Senor.

NO BS

Senor

was hoping that Senor (and/or Dharma) would use their expertise and indicate why these counts were not very likely

woody, the beauty of the market is the possibly for diverse opinions and outcomes. a trend in motion will continue until it actually stops-aristotle. w/that in mind i try to determine the direction of the trend if it has stopped

1033 finished a 5 wave advance. we had a correction,A then Bto 986 and we just finished a 5 wave C wave to Fibonacci support. so, i look @it and say the correction in the bull market has ended.
this is not an easy game. so, i keep human nature in mind. @the top of every bull market that i have seen, whatever it is, everyone wants it, and the market goes parabolic. real estate, nasdaq in 2k etc . this market will be no different that has not occurred yet. in sept 79-jan 80 gold went from 450-800 that kind of move awaits us. while i appreciate that gold has always been real money, it is a vehicle for me. when it shoots its wad, i will be done w/it. dharma

[SilentOne]

woody,

I like Elliott wave, but my cycle work is always the ultimate arbiter when it comes to possible EW counts. It has saved me a lot of grief. It helped me avoid the junior market completely from its top in early Feb. 2007. Next to nobody that I know here made that call correctly at the time that I know. That was +18 months ago. My cycle work helped me exit long term positions in PM funds last fall. That wasn't popular either. And it gave me the nerve to sell down my bullion last spring. And I know that there has been a world of hurt for many a gold investor in the last few months. My Waterloo was 2004 and I learned from that experience, although it cost me dearly.

For now, the cycles for gold and silver bottomed earlier in the month and the pressure will be there to move higher. JMHO.

PM Hurst Cycles



Buy the pullback when it comes IMO.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 23 September 2008 - 11:55 AM.

[Woody]

Dharma & John.........first class responses in what could be a critical point for the PM's

[beta]

Hi Woody,

I have an even more bearish scenario than the one you posted.

An alternative count is that the move down from the March 08 peak could be construed as the start of a 5-waves down, with the recent termination of wave "3" and the PRESENT move is the ABC correction back up to constitute wave "4". This is something that has troubled me, as I could discern the same pattern in other commodity groups such as oil. If this is correct, we're looking at wave "5" yet to come finishing around HUI 142.

This bearish count would be negated by a move above HUI 380.

I am not saying that this has high probability, but I agree with your cautious, open-minded approach. Bulls are not out of the woods yet, and I am more interested in trading profitably than advocating for Team Goldbug.

Edited by beta, 23 September 2008 - 12:55 PM.

[Woody]

Hi Woody,

I have an even more bearish scenario than the one you posted.

An alternative count is that the move down from the March 08 peak could be construed as the start of a 5-waves down, with the recent termination of wave "3" and the PRESENT move is the ABC correction back up to constitute wave "4". This is something that has troubled me, as I could discern the same pattern in other commodity groups such as oil. If this is correct, we're looking at wave "5" yet to come finishing around HUI 142.

This bearish count would be negated by a move above HUI 380.

I am not saying that this has high probability, but I agree with your cautious, open-minded approach. Bulls are not out of the woods yet, and I am more interested in trading profitably than advocating for Team Goldbug.

Beta, thanks for your thoughts, and yes just trying to be open minded here and balance the bullish case with other possibilities, I am no Elliottician but there are always several possible counts each with their own probabilities, in a perfect world I would like to see another leg down before buying and to get some of the sentiment measures onside like CEF premium and HGNSI.....I think my alternate "Numbered" count is similar to the one you mention. We both hope to join Team Goldbug but maybe not at these levels.

Good Luck

[dougie]

woody: as drawn your 4 maybe overlaps 1. cant have that. so if it turns here it is ok and valid count imo

[Woody]

woody: as drawn your 4 maybe overlaps 1. cant have that. so if it turns here it is ok and valid count imo

or a bit higher from here, anyway,

Thanks Dougie, lets see what unfolds.

Edited by Woody, 23 September 2008 - 02:09 PM.