20 replies to this topic

[beta]

Anyone who got blindsided by today's gold-slam needs to go back and review Charts 101. All the signs were there: 1. USD rising in a strong uptrend/channel, breaking out > 80 last nite 2. GLD fell out of the parabolic channel, attempted to regain support, and regressed again yesterday. 3. PMs weak close yesterday, right on the pivot. 4. Steady decline in PMs over 7 straight days, with confirming weakness in MACDs. 5. Big sell-off in other commodity groups like energy, base metals as I've been warning about since last week. Oh, and board sentiment OFF-THE-CHARTS bullish (to the point of excluding any/all criticism of the bear case). I tried giving the Bull scenario here every last benefit of the doubt, but HUI/GDX was right on the ledge (pivot) as of last nite's close and this morning's gap-down and triangle breakdown was a strong warning to get out asap. Lost some $ on my calls, but it was a small position hedged w/ DZZ. Today's action confirms my thinking we are in the midst of Primary I wave down, with yesterday concluding "iv" and today commencing "v" of "3." Alternatively, we could be nearing "C" down, and about to start "D" up. May take another flier (long) around 253-255, but it will be small and speculative. (I know what you bulls are thinking: we are in wave "2" down, and primary "3" yet to come ....) One tick under 253, and I will go 200% short to 165. Short-term, a bounce to 300-310 (now resistance) may be in the works, but I wont be counting on it.

Edited by beta, 02 October 2008 - 03:57 PM.

[Tor]

Anyone who got blindsided by today's gold-slam needs to go back and review Charts 101.

All the signs were there:

1. USD rising in a strong uptrend/channel, breaking out > 80 last nite
2. GLD fell out of the parabolic channel, attempted to regain support, and regressed again yesterday.
3. PMs weak close yesterday, right on the pivot.
4. Steady decline in PMs over 7 straight days, with confirming weakness in MACDs.
5. Big sell-off in other commodity groups like energy, base metals as I've been warning about since last week.

Oh, and board sentiment OFF-THE-CHARTS bullish (to the point of excluding any/all criticism of the bear case).

I tried giving the Bull scenario here every last benefit of the doubt, but HUI/GDX was right on the ledge (pivot) as of last nite's close and this morning's gap-down and triangle breakdown was a strong warning to get out asap. Lost some $ on my calls, but it was a small position hedged w/ DZZ.

Today's action confirms my thinking we are in the midst of Primary I wave down, with yesterday concluding "iv" and today commencing "v" of "3."
Alternatively, we could be nearing "C" down, and about to start "D" up.

May take another flier (long) around 253-255, but it will be small and speculative. (I know what you bulls are thinking: we are in wave "2" down, and primary "3" yet to come ....) One tick under 253, and I will go 200% short to 165.

Short-term, a bounce to 300-310 (now resistance) may be in the works, but I wont be counting on it.

Seems stupid to make such a post now...why not before?

Cheers.

[beta]

You must be eff'ing blind and deaf, Tor. I've been jumping up and down warning the bullz all week ! Go back and read my numerous posts @ HUI 359 a week ago when I warned the bullz we were topping. But whatever ... I find your posts totally worthless fwiw.

Edited by beta, 02 October 2008 - 04:12 PM.

[beta]

... oh yeah, and something about "harrassing the bullz" ....

[swanstkdh]

Well beta buddy I appreciate your warnings. I had a gut feeling you are right on and sure enough I am now looking for an exit. Some sort of impulse up in a downtrend. . The majors are in a downtrend. The wierd thing is I got a buy on a monthly in Kry. It had been collapsed over the last year.

[Woody]

Beta, My Bearish interpretation is also well knowm but let me add a few comments to yours. Firstly, on a board with a bullish predisposition, an "I told ya so" post on a day Gold is down substantially is poor judgement. Secondly, these are tricky markets and i have deep respect for the Ellioticians who reside here and have far more knowledge than myself, I wouldnt want my daily forecasts scrutinized, what will your Charts 101 course say if Gold rises $100/oz tomorrow? Thirdly, using the small sample of posters here as a read on sentiment is ludicrous. Just a warning from a long term trader, never question a profit but recognize that a profit made for the wrong reasons is as dangerous as an overconfident Politician armed with a little knowledge. Good Luck.

[beta]

Well beta buddy I appreciate your warnings. I had a gut feeling you are right on and sure enough I am now looking for an exit. Some sort of impulse up in a downtrend. . The majors are in a downtrend. The wierd thing is I got a buy on a monthly in Kry. It had been collapsed over the last year.

Hi swanstkdh, I think GLD may be a safer bet here for the short-term than the PMs. If the basic premise is that gold is up because financial institutions are falling apart, PMs may follow stocks, not gold. I do think we'll get a bounce back to HUI 300-310, but staying above 252 is the key right now. Best.

[swanstkdh]

I appreciate that bit of support very much. Thank you. I am puking today thinking about it.

[beta]

Beta,

My Bearish interpretation is also well knowm but let me add a few comments to yours.

Firstly, on a board with a bullish predisposition, an "I told ya so" post on a day Gold is down substantially is poor judgement.

Secondly, these are tricky markets and i have deep respect for the Ellioticians who reside here and have far more knowledge than myself, I wouldnt want my daily forecasts scrutinized, what will your Charts 101 course say if Gold rises $100/oz tomorrow?

Thirdly, using the small sample of posters here as a read on sentiment is ludicrous.

Just a warning from a long term trader, never question a profit but recognize that a profit made for the wrong reasons is as dangerous as an overconfident Politician armed with a little knowledge.

Good Luck.

I think you misunderstand my post.

First, I never said I was bearish on gold. In fact, I posted a couple threads below that I went long today @ 82, which has been my stated E-Wave target since last week (posted on my blog and FF). Im long with a stop @ 80.

Second, the PMs are a different story. For reasons exhaustively explained, I think PMs will behave differently in an environment such as this from the physical itself. Today, both fell, but Im betting that PMs have more downside ahead, along with other stocks.

Third, I understand you've stayed on the sidelines. Ive stuck out my neck for the past week trying to warn newcomers to be cautious in the rush toward gold. As posted in real-time, I got out at HUI 355 with 30% profits, and very glad to have made that choice. (And Ive traded gold and commodities since 2003, so not as new to this as you may think).

My point is, PMs are subject to the same laws of TA as any other sector of stocks. Too many trying to trade the "fundamentals."

So thanks for your condescension, but really not needed.

Edited by beta, 02 October 2008 - 05:21 PM.

[beta]

... as for Ellioticians, anyone who's studied this realm for a while knows that E-wave patterns are like clouds. Everyone has their own interpretation, and some are more "opaque" than others.

Edited by beta, 02 October 2008 - 05:24 PM.