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Sector Trends 3/24/04


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#1 Porter

Porter

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Posted 27 March 2004 - 12:57 AM

Sector trends show that the stock market had a selloff sufficient for an Intermediate Term bottom within an ongoing bull market. Below are Sector Trend Percentages for the Monthly, Weekly, and Gator trends. The Monthly and Weekly percentages are similar in concept to Bullish Percentage indices. They use a definitive method for determining trends (Wyckoff's swings). The Gator Trend percent is based on sectors above the 13D EMA offset 8 periods. That in turn is similar to a 21D SMA. Date......Month%.....Week%.....Gator% 8/5/03.....63.............31............-78 9/30/03...63.............19............-78 11/21/03..74............41............-72 3/24/04...72............-24...........-78 Note that the Monthly Trend percent is greater than that of 8/5/03. This suggest that the Intermediate Term trend structure of the market is still in good shape. It also suggests to me that the current correction is a Wave 4 of some degree. The Weekly Trend Percent shows a greater weakness than anytime since the March 2003 lows and suggests that the bull market is in a mature phase. Again that suggests that this correction is a Wave 4 of some degree. Finally note the consistency of the Gator Trend percent at bottoms. This data suggests that the market has corrected sufficiently for an Intermediate Term bottom. Porter