Edited by pdx5, 12 January 2007 - 05:21 PM.
Kisacik's FF of an IT top in mid February
#1
Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:19 PM
#2
Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:49 PM
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
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#3
Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:59 PM
The NYSE breadth MCSUM suggested back in November that we'll probably see a price peak sometime in late March or early April. That could extend all depending on how we rally on the next advance. We'll just have to see how things go.
Fib
I know you mentioned this before.. that MCO/MCSUM can do price projections. Looks like it can also do time projections.
I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.
Thanks
#4
Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:15 PM
This one of the many complexities of this "simple" forecasting tool provides, and it would take quite a while for me to explain it in such a way that would make good analytical sense without turning it into a lengthy dissertation.I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.
But fortunately, we do cover this and many other nuances that comes with the McClellan data in the chat sessions. Another idea would be to review the cumulative archives in the April to October 2004 period where I provide this kind of analysis.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#5
Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:17 PM
#6
Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:22 PM
This one of the many complexities of this "simple" forecasting tool provides, and it would take quite a while for me to explain it in such a way that would make good analytical sense without turning it into a lengthy dissertation.I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.
But fortunately, we do cover this and many other nuances that comes with the McClellan data in the chat sessions. Another idea would be to review the cumulative archives in the April to October 2004 period where I provide this kind of analysis.
Fib
Thanks, will look into it.
#7
Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:34 PM
#8
Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:54 PM
The NYSE breadth MCSUM suggested back in November that we'll probably see a price peak sometime in late March or early April. That could extend all depending on how we rally on the next advance. We'll just have to see how things go.
Fib
Fib, I think the cycle lows are due at that time, so I am not sure the indices should float that far, there are enough IT signs that one can expect a top by March or in Feb. I expect the Jan to be up, because I expect the year to be up...
- kisa
#9
Posted 12 January 2007 - 07:13 PM
Yes, according to the blueprint of the 9 month cycle, the next nesting is due the end of April. But with liquidity as high as it is, and the four year cycle continuing its upward arch, this same nesting could present us with only a quick and scary decline (a bottom in which we decline into) - or what may be more plausible - another trading range type formation (a bottom in which we rally up from).Fib, I think the cycle lows are due at that time...
Still, there's a lot of time between now and then to digest, so it would be better to take it day to day and let the market tell us its true intentions.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions