SNDK - good short or long candidate?
#1
Posted 27 January 2007 - 07:14 PM
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#2
Posted 27 January 2007 - 07:41 PM
for the usefulness of what appears on the surface to be an ugly chart, loaded with short interest...ck out the stocks and note where price was on the dates when posted -
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=60793
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=63431
you and I both know it is a guess what SNDK will do from here...and more of a guess if you are thinking of holding it only for market timing or short-term trading purposes.
what do you think the odds are it will make an advance vs. a decline off the horizontal price move of recent weeks?
what are you going to do?
btw, Legg Mason or Rich Freeman are not exactly known for being poor stock pickers -
http://webreprints.d...5971150220.html
Edited by hiker, 27 January 2007 - 07:48 PM.
#3
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:10 PM
Edited by hiker, 27 January 2007 - 08:15 PM.
#4
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:19 PM
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#5
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:21 PM
#6
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:25 PM
#7
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:29 PM
greenie...you seem to have all sorts of certainty in your reasoning that makes you stay short the Q's...I do not believe such certainty exists.
I think it is a mistake to have such beliefs when trading.
It is all a guess about probabilties.
Hi hiker,
Thanks for your wise advice. I understand what you are saying, but it is sometimes harder to change one's mind than to think I can. Will keep working on my trades.
Best,
Greenie
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#8
Posted 27 January 2007 - 09:10 PM
what on the chart would have prompted you to buy DECK in October 2005? risk/reward? and money management when making the trade?
DECK (see chart):
buy in Oct after weekly Doji, with reward=retest of downtrend line, risk=Oct low.
Fundamentally, it was selling close to revenue. Not a time to be on the short side.
increase position size 4-5X after breakout in Dec, with a stop just below the downtrend-line. Risk=0, because the gain from small position in Oct is working for you.
increase position in July 2006, on its relative strength over $RUT and the new market rally.
SNDK:
Short on retest and failure of uptrend line in Jan. Stop - Jan high. Small position.
Increase position size 4X, if it breaks below July low, with a stop just above July low.
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#9
Posted 28 January 2007 - 09:49 AM
Edited by hiker, 28 January 2007 - 09:54 AM.
#10
Posted 28 January 2007 - 07:41 PM
This one looks like BRCM did in May. You may recall my post regarding the fact the BRCM had weakness zone in roughly the same price range as this one 35-38... namely that there was no base built in the price range. As you can see SNDK is also hanging around that gap from 7/24. Looks to me like it gets filled. And then depending on how strong the volume is for that move whether or not that weak area from 35-38 gets tested. Considering semiconductor fundamentals are weak as well as weakening consumer demand, either the chips are going to come back as a group and take SNDK back up or they are going lower and SNDK is going to fall under 35 and head for the lower gap.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics