The long running bull =
#1
Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:17 PM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TYX&p=W&st=1975-02-16&i=p95977540986&a=98354420&r=202.png
#2
Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:36 PM
If anything, the 10 year note will continue to move in a trading range with 5.25% on the high side and 4.25% on the low side for the unforeseen future.
The cumulative Bond Closed End Funds chart below is as of last Friday and will be updated later tonight.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#3
Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:34 PM
#4
Posted 17 February 2007 - 08:53 AM
TNX Sweet Spot Box.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=M&st=1990-11-01&i=p66869836738&a=87143129&r=919.png
#5
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:22 AM
If rates trend back up, what happens ?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TYX&p=W&st=1975-02-16&i=p95977540986&a=98354420&r=202.png
Interest rates went up from approximately 1947-1980 the stock market as measured by the dow went up approximately 386% without dividends. That is an 11.69% return not counting dividends. Not too bad for a 33 year rising rate environment.
The mid 1940's had high commodity prices like now, the start of a rising rate environment like now, war like now etc...
There is every indication that we are at the start of an inflationary expansion, just like the late 40's. It could be that real estate and commodities are discounting what's coming. The broad indexes are about to play catch up with real estate and commodities.
I have some very long term interest rate charts that go back to the 30's, that back up what I am saying, along with some custom trend following indicators. Unfortunately I can't figure out how to post my Metastock graphs here. But the bottom line is: Stocks and interest rates will be going up together!
#6
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:44 AM
Agreed....eventually, just not right away.Stocks and interest rates will be going up together!
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions