Fearful Forecast
#1
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:05 PM
#2
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:30 PM
Stephen Coach commented on this recently... link
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=USDEUR=X&t=6m&q=&l=off&z=l&c=USDCHF=X,USDGBP=X,USDAUD=X,USDCAD=,USDJPY=X&.png
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=USDEUR=X&t=5d&q=&l=off&z=l&c=USDCHF=X,USDGBP=X,USDAUD=X,USDCAD=,USDJPY=X&.png
So far it looks like the BoJ's interest rates policy is kind of behind the inflation curve since Dec. It is one of the few major currencies that lost some significant value against the USD!
Edited by kisacik, 22 February 2007 - 06:32 PM.
#3
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:32 PM
"The yen carry trade has been added to with a vengeance for the past couple of days; it will probably continue to grow for a while yet. However, before you assume cheap funding is here forever, have a look at a Usd/Jpy chart for 1998, and note the 3 day 135 to 110 "correction". That's called unwinding the carry trade. Strangely, George Soros gave up active hedge fund management and started writing books shortly thereafter..."
#5
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:39 PM
Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
#6
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:40 PM
#7
Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:54 PM
I don't think this is going to be as big of issue as most make out to be. Major Market Corrections come from the "unknown" because if it is known it is already factored into the Market.
I used to believe this too. My favorite example was real estate. Prior to the middle of last year, I was an ardent proponent of the view that, because the collapse of "housing bubble" had been forecast so frequently in so many places, it simply couldn't happen. Boy, was I wrong -- and boy, am I gonna pay for it. In all likelihood, my loss on paper will eventually run to seven figures before the cycle is complete. But hey, it's not as though I really earned the gain -- so: easy come, easy go. No whining.
#8
Posted 22 February 2007 - 08:44 PM