Judging by this board
#1
Posted 20 April 2007 - 06:07 PM
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#2
Posted 20 April 2007 - 06:14 PM
JV
#3
Posted 20 April 2007 - 07:02 PM
#4
Posted 20 April 2007 - 07:23 PM
Is this a correct interpretation.
Seems there are a lot calling for such a top.
Personally I took the hit, and thankfully so, and going to wait for some sign of weakness before shorting. The setup maybe in play already, but can bring myself to act on it.
Hvae a great weekend.
Shorted DIA and SPY on the close for a trade.
#5
Posted 20 April 2007 - 07:23 PM
Judging by this board, maybe 90% are short or expecting a top?
I think it is ok to be selectively short, but it is hard to accomodate a large index short other than a hedge to the long positions for now or very short term (day or two) for now. So far let me emphasize that the declines have been basically bought on the Fed's money for the past 2 wks. This situation and this very fast pace up will not last forever...
I don't think you would be too shocked if I tell you that the high grade credit risk is priced higher than Feb highs in the spreads at the moment, even though the indices made new highs, also the implied volatilities barely budged down this week despite the rally implying also the increased risk...
The market rarely advances before settling down these worries, so a pull back is probably given here...
- kisa
#6
Posted 20 April 2007 - 07:36 PM
#7
Posted 20 April 2007 - 08:57 PM
#8
Posted 20 April 2007 - 09:06 PM
#9
Posted 20 April 2007 - 09:11 PM
Edited by pdx5, 20 April 2007 - 09:12 PM.
#10
Posted 21 April 2007 - 05:36 AM
Kisa, that pretty much jives with my thinking. I am sitting with 60% cash and will
soon go 100% cash. Fed does not have unlimited ammo, contrary to what many
believe. They can not ignore the falling US$ for very long.
Regardless of what they say, The fed wants a weak doo-lar. It's the only way to pay off our debt (with cheap money).
Inflate or Die!