Terminal Move is underway...
#1
Posted 13 July 2007 - 09:33 PM
As you can see from the chart below, the texture of this market changed dramatically on 6/22. Fortunately for me, my methodology picked it up and I was able to confidently forecast we'd break the Nasdaq and SPX highs... Now I'm sending another message... the volume spike low you see on 6/22 will be tested. We could run as high as the all time monthly volume high of 2892 from 1/2001. I can tell you today though, mid-month if that happens it is the short of the century, based on these volume patterns...
If you've read my posts, you know that I saw this coming.... Now I'm telling you to WATCH OUT. This pig is ready for slaughter.... we don't know which day, but we know where it's going when it falls off the yellow brick road to nowhere on light volume... It's a long way down to 2583.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#2
Posted 13 July 2007 - 09:43 PM
Or are you saying that the 6/22 mark will be tested sooner than later?
I had forecast, this would be a light volume wonder, and it has been. Yes, an upthrust/short squeeze on light volume tends to feed on itself... but in no way is this a bullish event. We could go all the way and test the monthly high volume high now from 1/2001 (2892), but no way on this volume is that a bullish event.
As you can see from the chart below, the texture of this market changed dramatically on 6/22. Fortunately for me, my methodology picked it up and I was able to confidently forecast we'd break the Nasdaq and SPX highs... Now I'm sending another message... the volume spike low you see on 6/22 will be tested. We could run as high as the all time monthly volume high of 2892 from 1/2001. I can tell you today though, mid-month if that happens it is the short of the century, based on these volume patterns...
If you've read my posts, you know that I saw this coming.... Now I'm telling you to WATCH OUT. This pig is ready for slaughter.... we don't know which day, but we know where it's going when it falls off the yellow brick road to nowhere on light volume... It's a long way down to 2583.
#3
Posted 14 July 2007 - 05:26 AM
#4
Posted 14 July 2007 - 07:39 AM
....The count is very bullish that I have on spx if we are topping or have topped a wave 1 of an ending diagonal that would target the 1590/1600 area on internal technical fumes....I can't rule that out at the moment ......HOWEVER.....if we hit 1561.80 SPX BEFORE a decent pull back to the 1533/39 area...............that would be a HUGE warning to me that 1530 is going to fail to act as support and we have put in a substantial top with a bull trap having been sprung. Coming down to that 1533/39 area and holding before we hit 1561.80 keeps those higher targets alive.
I do have other technical reasons for the rally possibly failing at that 1561.80 number but it's my own odd ball stuff that would confuse if I explained it all..plus some of it I would prefer to keep to myself....... I will say though....TRAN is a chart that bugs me..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p72820422618&a=34410261&r=7837.png
#5
Posted 14 July 2007 - 09:56 AM
Edited by thespookyone, 14 July 2007 - 09:58 AM.
#6
Posted 14 July 2007 - 11:43 AM
Going Without the Flow: The Changing Dynamics of this Bull Market
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#7
Posted 14 July 2007 - 12:06 PM
Where would you go into QID. It just keeps dropping like a rock. Tried short a few times and stopped out right away.
Next entry is Nasdaq 2722 if we crack it on this leg up...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#8
Posted 14 July 2007 - 04:35 PM
#9
Posted 15 July 2007 - 11:19 AM
McLaren Report
How the NASDAQ performs the next week may give the clue for the entire index. You can see how the index struggled upward for May and June then resolved that struggle with this fast trend up. This is a recognizable pattern of trending and is always resolved with an exhaustion trend that ends the trend. During an exhaustion trend the index hould not correct more than 3 or 4 days or the trend will be complete. The 100 should stay out of the congestion it just broke away from or it will indicate a possible completion. Seeing the more speculative NASDAQ diverge from the S&P 500 could be indicating a little burst of speculation prior to a more serious move down in the averages. I've laid out the criteria for this index to hold this fast trend and if it doesn't meet that criteria it could have ramifications for all the stock indexes.
Edited by SemiBizz, 15 July 2007 - 11:22 AM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#10
Posted 15 July 2007 - 11:57 AM
must not correct more than 3 or 4 days - in a row? or just 3 or 4 negative days at any point since the start of the trend
In my weekend web review, I also found this:
McLaren Report
How the NASDAQ performs the next week may give the clue for the entire index. You can see how the index struggled upward for May and June then resolved that struggle with this fast trend up. This is a recognizable pattern of trending and is always resolved with an exhaustion trend that ends the trend. During an exhaustion trend the index hould not correct more than 3 or 4 days or the trend will be complete. The 100 should stay out of the congestion it just broke away from or it will indicate a possible completion. Seeing the more speculative NASDAQ diverge from the S&P 500 could be indicating a little burst of speculation prior to a more serious move down in the averages. I've laid out the criteria for this index to hold this fast trend and if it doesn't meet that criteria it could have ramifications for all the stock indexes.