$SPX Hurst Analysis
#1
Posted 09 July 2008 - 09:22 PM
If markets right themselves somehow in the coming weeks, this bearish view can change. I'll be trading one way or another and will put buy/hold on hold, most likely for some time to come.
At the beginning of this year I anticipated the Jan. and March lows, but I did not foresee this terribly weak summer. Looking at the 10 year weekly chart, one can see the double top formed late last year and its bearish implications. Had I sensed this major change of trend, I would have closed all long term core positions. We are still very liquid though with plenty of capital for opportunities as they present themselves.
cheers,
john
#2
Posted 09 November 2008 - 01:25 AM
This does not present a pretty picture. I was bearish when the $SPX cut to new lows in the summer. Now we have to factor in the huge price decline combined with the fact that the next 4.5 year lows are 2.5 - 3 years away. This bear market is ... well, just really bad.
I have stuck with Bob's original phasing, but I will also try a slight deviation in my next post. Here is a replication of the phasing as posted in July.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 09 November 2008 - 01:33 AM.
#3
Posted 09 November 2008 - 02:13 AM
So this phasing supports an imminent bear rally, but then the bears would regain control next year for a slide into an 18 month (80 week) cycle low.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 09 November 2008 - 02:20 AM.
#4
Posted 02 February 2009 - 09:10 AM
This is Bob's original phasing for the 80 week cycle (18 month) and points to a low possibly late Feb./early March. There are some other aspects that point to March 6th at the moment, but that is merely a guess at this point. The 80 week will be good to what +/- 4 weeks but will extend in time due to the very large cycles involved? So could extend to mid-April. Avg. cycle length is 79 weeks for the last 13 counted here (assuming the cycles are accurately counted of course).
What bugs me is the "extra" 80 week cycle we seem to be looking at here for 1987. And I just can't see how a market can top virtually at a 4.5 year low (ie. black vertical lines are 4.5 year cycle lows). From 10,000 feet that is what it looks like. AND if that is correct that the 4.5 year low came in Aug., 2007 near the all-time high, then timewise this bear is going to be really painful, never mind price. I think I have repeated myself more than once on this, but those are the facts.
Once the 80 week low is in we will see a terrific rally, probably one of the best of this bear market.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 02 February 2009 - 09:17 AM.
#5
Posted 02 February 2009 - 04:22 PM
And I just can't see how a market can top virtually at a 4.5 year low (ie. black vertical lines are 4.5 year cycle lows).
John, this is when my private indicators stated going down instead of up even as price proceeded upward the indicators went further down. I almost gave up on them but 15 years of good results sent a warning sign up and I did not ignore.
Some of my way-back post bear this out. As you say, time will tell, but I think 600 SPX is a given, just when-------------
Best to you Scott
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#6
Posted 02 February 2009 - 04:35 PM
John, this is when my private indicators stated going down instead of up even as price proceeded upward the indicators went further down. I almost gave up on them but 15 years of good results sent a warning sign up and I did not ignore.
Some of my way-back post bear this out. As you say, time will tell, but I think 600 SPX is a given, just when-------------
Thanks for the comment. Yes, I remember your early interpretation of the $SPX price action. It proved itself over and over in the last year. If there is one weakness of cycle work, it is that you can get caught out at significant turns. I have done a better job interpreting/anticipating the turns for oil, precious metals, or currencies over the last 2 years, but I was fooled in the $SPX price action. So was Bob and the reason was simply that the 4.5 year cycle low came in so close to when the $SPX crested to all-time highs. I should have had a closer eye on the 18 and 36 year cycles as these are what have come into play. Had I sensed that the longer term cycles (and the sum of all cycles - also known as sigma el to Hurst followers) would turn so hard, then the only interpretation could have been a bearish one. As you can see at the start of this thread, it took me until mid-summer last year to realize what was happening.
Good trading to you. Forget about the investing part. The only "investing" one can seem to do these days is to "invest" in yourself (by that I mean get better at dealing with these markets).
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 02 February 2009 - 04:40 PM.
#7
Posted 05 February 2009 - 08:58 PM
This should be interesting. Is this thing going to rally just enough to hang itself?
I think the swing vote goes to oil. If crude rallies here like it has printed THE LOW for 2009, then this is for real (ie. best bear rally of the year starts right here).
cheers,
john
#8
Posted 05 February 2009 - 11:03 PM
#9
Posted 06 February 2009 - 09:25 AM
Edited by SilentOne, 06 February 2009 - 09:25 AM.