Message board sentiment has been the same for years. All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complaceny, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, is always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any upmove in the markets. That has been the story of this board or any other message board for years. It's too predictable and boring, honestly.
Great post and insights. Back in the day I knew a well known doom and gloom guru who told me in reality he was never all that doom and gloom but that doom and gloom is what sold best to the masses so doom and gloom it would be.
Edit: I am reminded of that maxim the bears always like to trot out about it doesn't take genius to make money in a bull market. While I completely concur I have always wondered then what does it take to not make money in a bull market.
Edited by Gary Smith, 08 August 2012 - 10:50 PM.