Now What?

So long at blue line or are you waiting for the orange line....

cheers

I haven't made a move in a month.  I bought in with SPY, put a trailing stop loss under it minus 3%, and bet on earnings season.  Last week and this week are the peak of earnings season, and we're still flat.  I don't like that.  Next focus may be the election, but I think it will be a non-event after 2 days.  Drug stocks could take a hit, but I think they already have.  Everyone knows the outcome and is positioned if you think it makes a difference; I don't think it will make much difference.  Get to mid Nov. and the focus will go to the Fed rate hike in Dec.  Last year that didn't go well, I suspect it will be a temporary negative.  I think I'll look for a good exit point if I don't get stopped out before.  Since the trailing stop loss % is a high water mark, my exposure now has been cut to a 1% loss.  The market is overvalued with the trailing 12 month GAAP P/E of the S&P 500 at 24, but that is a slow moving indicator.

So long at blue line or are you waiting for the orange line....

 

cheers

Larger Orange Wedge is the main structure that "solidified" after we nailed the 2150 rejection, will dominate locals within until itself breaks.

 

 

Posted 19 October 2016 - 08:52 AM  Also don't underrate that FISHY blue line as a more sensitive indicator!  

Edited by iloli way, 26 October 2016 - 01:19 PM.

More points (highs or lows) touching a TL making it a more reliable line, said that.

With today's low connecting with other lows, I redraw/replace previous rising wedge and make the 2107.75 as a flag-pole rather than part of formation-body. As you can see chart below (screenshot 3 mins ago) shows the newer Light Blue Dashed Lines now has become a Bearish Tilt Flag. It's still bearish biased, but further moves toward upper TL is 'very' likely per formation's recent tracks. 

That will give bears headaches, as any BO of any line above could be a major BO of the "Disguised Bull Flag". Say, the Orange TL BO now only will need 2145~47 this time, not 2150 anymore.

Good for Bears immediately though is a VST triangle already formed by today's bounce from the low. This could BD the lower Dashed TL overnight or tomorrow as triangle implies continuation down.

I also changed color of former Bearish 4-tier Flag to pale, so the three remaining patterns that matter for now can be better seen.

 

 

Good for Bears immediately though is a VST triangle already formed by today's bounce from the low. This could BD the lower Dashed TL overnight or tomorrow as triangle implies continuation down.

Ignore orange line here, it strayed on its own. 

Hmm... wonder where did this 12 pts swing in 5 hours smashed from the top?  LOL! 

Wondered why I called it 'old friend' ?

one hr to go today,,

Edited by iloli way, 27 October 2016 - 05:38 PM.

5min/hourly double bottom 2116.25

Orange TL very close, no cigar yet...

Edited by iloli way, 28 October 2016 - 08:07 AM.