Option players seem to be fading this rally big time today. I find that encouraging for continuation of this rally. ETF players the past few days have also been leaning much more toward shorts than longs, again a helpful contrary signal, suggesting more upside.
Trapped
#11
Posted 18 October 2016 - 12:52 PM
#12
Posted 18 October 2016 - 12:53 PM
It never seems to work out well posting real time trades to FF ...don't know why, I joked because the market God's smite us, in
my case I found it effected my judgement ...mental side of trading is hard for me...I don't need the added distraction.
Hopefully not the case for you NAV.
It's just superstition.
I never hold overnight except for very long term, because of this kind of gap today....can't count number
of times I got trapped like this - I hated sleeping waiting to wake up to 'surprises'.
I have been caught in these kind of gaps hundred of times over the last 15 years, i have been swing trading. I never sweat about gaps. It's part of swing trading. Usually i get caught in 5-6 point gaps, which are common and normal. But when it gaps big like this (more than .75%) it's painful. My experience is when these kind of gaps occurs, it;s usually when a range expansion occurs. Gotta trust the range expansions. We'll see. the day is still young.
This is why picking a STYLE to suit our personality is key - holding overnight is fine for some people. i'm an overthinker/can't turn brain off - so I finally realized I wore myself out with overnight holds, not being able to forget about market and sleep relaxed - using futures doesn't solve that either. So I switch to purely daytrade couple years ago - I DO hold overnight positions as said, but only very long term and very small positions looking for more IT trending moves occasionally, I can sleep sound with that :-)
#It's just superstition.
'Oh great Market Gods, please don't punish this heresy'
On my system the market has sucked since last thur - I wait for 'triggers' based on how market behaves 99% of time, since thur its never quite triggered, something
is always off ..( sort of what Mark(OEX) is talking about above) ...I prefer to have patience and wait for right setup..but market keeps whipping up/down never giving me
signal ... it want me to 'chase' it ..so I won't...been there, done that lesson :-) FYI - usually this means we are in a complex corrective wave setup ..and ranging not trending.
Edited by Entropy2.0, 18 October 2016 - 12:59 PM.
#13
Posted 18 October 2016 - 01:12 PM
Option players seem to be fading this rally big time today. I find that encouraging for continuation of this rally. ETF players the past few days have also been leaning much more toward shorts than longs, again a helpful contrary signal, suggesting more upside.
dont think so from ISEE?
klh
#14
Posted 18 October 2016 - 01:45 PM
Tomorrow is probably down .
#15
Posted 18 October 2016 - 01:56 PM
The outlook for the volume at this point, which could change is UP HUGE ON LIGHTER VOLUME... which was already at the lightest of the year... so that's a BEARISH UPTHRUST - and there should be consequences yes, but if there aren't, then that speaks to TREND... Once a trend is established it doesn't need volume to go higher or lower... But it does need volume to reject and reverse the trend.
Price wise... we are in the REFERENCE CANDLE ZONE... from the last day of EXTREME VOLUME 9/16/16 and that's where we are trading right now from 2131-2146... establishing LONG TERM SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE.
Don't rule anything out until we blow away one of those numbers...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#16
Posted 18 October 2016 - 02:00 PM
So we compressed a lot into that trading range with all that volume...
So you want to talk about TRAPPED ?
It's all the buyers and short-sellers in this price range.
Time to make some decisions...
For the bagholders...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#17
Posted 18 October 2016 - 02:05 PM
I can tell you by looking at these charts...
This market is like the elections - butt ugly.
Neither side is happy...
.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#18
Posted 18 October 2016 - 03:39 PM
This thing is almost mean spirited.
Trading ranges tend to do that to both sides.
Only thing worse is a symmetrical triangle.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#19
Posted 18 October 2016 - 07:17 PM
FWIW I love me a fractal for a road map ...this is the one I have for where we are right now i.e. a bit of ugly range.
My ST signals are sell here for tomorrow AM...which supports idea of the orange rectangle .. down to close todays gap tomorrow,
but things often rhyme not repeat.
http://screencast.com/t/2lsQiaibYpg
Trading wise i wouldn't touch this ..for starters. since I mainly day trade...and also since
this thin market allows overnight operators to cause gaps like today 'at will'.
It no fun for day trading either, days that gap then churn like today ..are 'no bueno'.
Scalpers market mon-tue ...maybe Wed brings something better ..but I suspect another gap, likely down.
Edited by Entropy2.0, 18 October 2016 - 07:20 PM.
#20
Posted 18 October 2016 - 08:52 PM
Fact that they could not take out SPX 2146.1 brings us back to square one. More range trading. No positions for now, but still leaning towards getting long unless they gap big again tomorrow.