Sorry if my note was unclear. Maybe the following will help.
1) Going into Friday my system, which only trades at the end of the day, was long RYDHX
2) The system uses the value of the DJIA at 3 pm in its sell stop calculation
3) At 3pm this past Friday the DJIA was below 20913, the current tight sell stop, so the system sold the RYDHX at the end of day
4) Second guessing the system, I believe it made a mistake in selling out Friday for the following reasons:
* the candle stick Thursday appeared to be a key reversal indicating a bottom
* Thursday had been identified by the system as a potential turn day and although Friday's close was lower, the low was higher
* my Elliott wave count assumes that a small 4th wave finished Thursday and a 5th wave which should march to new highs began
5) Next week my system sees the highest risk of a turn or strong acceleration of the current trend occurring on either Tuesday or Thursday (risk windows)
6) The forward looking portion of my system which only controls the tightness of stops projects a serious turn down in the next week or two
7) So far this year my system is getting its butt kicked by buy and hold due to my tinkering around with the stops in February
Hope the above outline is clearer.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 14 May 2017 - 01:24 AM.