According to my generous reckoning in 2016, 66% of the risk windows identified by the system were turns of one sort or another, 10% were acceleration events and 24% were duds. The system, long or cash only, theoretically returned 23% versus about 16% for buy and hold.
In 2017 I hope to eliminate the "theoretically" bit above by providing specific buy points in advance for a DJIA tracking fund in my Douglas Trading System posts here. I will use the RYDHX mutual fund since it tracks the DJIA fairly well with the buys or sells acted on based on the DJIA at 3 pm to get that day's closing price. I realize that for you quick firing day traders, this is all a bit slow and boring, but given I'm still working part time, I'm supposed to be retired and I'm basically lazy, it's all I have the energy and time to do.
RYDHX closed Friday at 55.61 which will be use as the buy and hold starting point bench mark for the trading system. On December 31, 2017 I'll compare the closing price of RYDHX - 55.61 + the small end of year fund distribution with the RYDHX points gained by the system. Since closing price only will be used and this "H" fund doesn't charge to buy or sell, this should be a pretty good test of the system.
Of course this is not investment advise and is being offered here purely for entertainment value (especially if it goes badly next year for my system and you need a good laugh). I have no plans to trade RYDHX in my personal accounts. In my personal accounts I trade ETF's, proprietary mutual funds, and individual stocks complicated to an almost maddening degree by having to deal with the tax systems of two countries.
Friday after the close the system gave a buy signal which is valid if the DJIA is above 19763 at 3 pm on Tuesday January 3rd.
The 3rd and the 5th and 6th of January are risk windows next week.
Happy New Year,
Douglas