Conclusion
Last time, I said that despite the Bull Market condition and the Intermediate-term up trend, near term the market had trouble in the form of an Options Oscillator Sell and a VIX P/C Sell. The former is based upon big shifts in "opening only" options transactions and the latter is based upon a big drop in VIX Put Buying--I view the players in the VIX options (think on that; traders of derivatives of a derivative derived from derivatives!) as "smart money". Basically, it looks to me like retail traders are all "Bulled-up" while the smart money guys are betting on a higher VIX (greater volatility/more weakness). Added to that, a number of "swing" indicators were flashing Sells. As Bullish as I was and am, I have to think that we've got one of the better chances for a pullback that we've seen in weeks if not months. Again, I'm a buyer if we get much of a pullback at all, but today I'm Bearish. This is, typically, confounded just a bit by a lot of Bears in the Opinion Poll, which is at least a bit Bullish. I'm expecting that the Bulls will try to defend the market, but that the Bears will win today. We're already down in GLOBEX.
From the WSS Daily
#1
Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:54 AM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#2
Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:55 AM
From last night's letter:
"Near term, however, we have an Options Oscillator Sell and a VIX P/C Sell. Now, our "Secret Hedge Fund" indicator is flashing an unconfirmed Sell, and the market is up against the daily Bollinger Band. TSP issued a Sell and additionally, NAAIM jumped back up to 95, which is troublesome for the market. There's at least a decent chance of a pullback in here, and it might be pretty good."
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#3
Posted 15 August 2018 - 11:29 AM
Hey, Mark,
What's that indicator of yours I like saying? Ted rate, correct?
Tia
~D
Edit: Great call in that newsletter of yours...
Edited by dowdeva, 15 August 2018 - 11:33 AM.
#4
Posted 15 August 2018 - 04:21 PM
Do you mean the Financial Commercial Paper vs. Non-Financial Commercial Paper? That differential was reported today (for yesterday) to be 0.03%. Very benign.
M
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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