Setups & Signals

Had a great day mountain biking - and market behaved nicely for once while I was away :-)

I actually don't think its 'b' c down - even though we've done what I thought here - while 'b' wave'ish yesterday and now 'c'ish

 dropping to gap close 2635 here.

My view wd take some explaning here ..I believe were in a complex range environment for while, unless 2620 breaks.

I'll try to find time today to post some charts/explain - I call this sort of market x-games, from x-files 'trust no one', or

 more accurately - trust Short term signals/setup less than usual ... seeing all usual signals of 'short term traders being messed with'

here typical of ranges for while.

Market hourly signals are moving to BUY here ....but its complicated ..we are not 'triggered for swing buy'..and I need to explain that a bit

with a chart .. most often, this leads to upward biased choppy range (again provided 2620 holds). The KICKER

though is some of those ranges end with a big up thrust - and i'd want to catch that, so, need follow step by step

here and not get blindsided by each a 2620 failure, or a big upthrust above 2700.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 13 December 2018 - 11:25 AM.

update on short term

https://www.screencast.com/t/mCGXa18nm

Thank you again for sharing the analysis videos...  I also enjoy the daily monthly quarterly and yearly time frame analysis...

Thx tradesurfer.

Market is acting a 'strange' (crazy chop) as is  typical of x-game period as said.

This as said cd go either way ST - fast move off 2620-2635 up, or just collapse if 2620 is lost ...

I'm hoping they don't x-game it into the close, then gap it big up or down ..but they probably will because

that's typical.

Note. AAII poll showing very high bear and low bull reading - now, that's a buy signal in bull market, so, if market can't rally off it,

it tell us something...nudge nudge, wink wink.

OK here's couple charts and bit of explanation of what I was talking about on hourly -

https://www.screenca...om/t/PvIenyU4O9

OK - so 'gap down' ..had to be a gap up or down as I said...no way to tell which ...

->BUT didn't take out that critical pivot of 2620 Cash spx - hit it exactly, well 2621!

So, we're still in X-games mode  -  they can fill the gap, or partial fill, drop again, bounce again ..whatever fun the 'bots want

to throw pesky humans off the trail - THEN we get a big move, fast, up or down.

I'd even allow a move to 2613 spxcash (ES overnight low_ for  a spike low ...

The problem for BEARS here is investor sentiment is so bearish, that's its hard to see a break of Feb lows and thereby obvious bear market with that, VIx is too high,

the only way is literal financial panic and that's NOT the case.. .so for now, I continue to see this bounce as

 - either having to go much longer time wise ...maybe back to 2700, or even 2750 then drop to 2530-2550 OR

 - drop to 2550 area and makes IT low, perhaps an intraday panic spike down below 2530 first. ( this wd occur soon, by tue most likely)

As i've said, don't have strong view on which, just following each VST step intraday.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 14 December 2018 - 10:03 AM.

Testing last support here ES overnight low - do or die ...right here in my view. It's starting to lean for bears to flush

us down to 2580, high odds 2550 into tue but fat lady hasn't sung until 2610 is taken out.

More on video update

https://www.screenca...om/t/PZghwBYRMU

OK that's a failure of KP 2620 -  we shd not now get above 2630 here today, and take out 2600.

Ideally infact we flush down to 2580'ish, maybe another bounce attempt there abouts.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 14 December 2018 - 11:59 AM.

ST LQ is plunging here - shd take market with it into the close unless it(STLQ)  turns up. This is high odds the start of large

LQ drop as daily tops out as well.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 14 December 2018 - 02:47 PM.

Putting the short term aside, and looking at bigger picture  

I've had TWO targets for this IT move down for long time - 

1. 2530-2550 AND

2. 2470-2480

(1) is very high odds as said, almost no chance of IT low without it.

But i'm now seeing alot of setups for (2)

I think the 'flush/panic' phase we've been lacking is close, and cd start into the close here today and into tue.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 14 December 2018 - 03:25 PM.