I don't think the short-lived 1920-21 depression is a good analog. The fed raised interest rates instead of decreasing them like now, and this caused short term pain while providing ballast for the 1920s boom economy. Corporate and speculator leverage were low. The only resemblance is the severe downturn in commodities.
In my opinion, the stock market and economy were taking a similar route to 1920-21 in 2018:
1. We had volmageddon in February 2018 at QQQ=168 similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average correction at 108 in June 1919
2. We had a second top one month later in March 2018 at QQQ=172 similar to the Dow correction one month later at 112 in July 1919
3. We had a third top several months later in September 2018 at QQQ=185 similar to the third Dow top at 120 in October 1919
In both cases, a sharp 25 % correction followed after the third top. In the the 2018 case, the Fed capitulated and decreased interest rates + stopped quantitative tightening, resulting in the resumption of the Bull. In the 1919-20 case, the Fed increased interest rates and allowed the bear market to run its course (after a large bear market rally in March-April 1920) to form a final bottom at Dow=68 in December 1920.
IMHO, due to the Fed's easy money and high leverage in both the corporate and leveraged speculation spheres, the only analog that matches the present is 1929. The 1900 top in the London stock market also has some structural similarities to the present situation.
Edited by kaiser soze, 03 April 2020 - 11:35 AM.