I don't see evidence of a big decline here

NYSI is not in a position for a big correction here.

If anyone has indications of a big drop you can list them here if you want.

Edited by CLK, 17 January 2021 - 02:28 PM.

Yea the summartion index does not look like it is poised to plummet down.

However if you look at the February 20th Juncture 2020, just before the 23 day MELTDOWN  -30% 

https://stockcharts....id=p12417307558

 and then look at how the 10 and 20 DEMA averages were situated, one can see that we seem to be in a similar setup now....  It looks like no signal and curling up and/or flatlining.

That was the situation in Feb 2020, but then it sharply plunged down out of nowhere.  

The question is why or how would the market just plunge down swifly now.... ?  I can come up with plenty of reasons, but maybe too long to explain in here...

In Feb 2020 it was the unknown fear of corona virus.

Now that fewer than 1% healthy people are dying from corona the fear factor is not there.

The only thing against the market right now is gravity.

For example Tesla has market capitalization 11.5 times bigger than that of GM stock.

While GM sells more cars in dollar volume by orders of magnitude than Tesla.

NYSE summation had rallied +1000 from Feb to April in 2010 then dropped 1600 into and after the famous flash crash in May.  I think it could be called the 1st QE taper tantrum. High to low SPX drop was a little over 18%.  Records across the board in options speculation this past week.

In Feb 2020 it was the unknown fear of corona virus.

Now that fewer than 1% healthy people are dying from corona the fear factor is not there.

The only thing against the market right now is gravity.

For example Tesla has market capitalization 11.5 times bigger than that of GM stock.

While GM sells more cars in dollar volume by orders of magnitude than Tesla.

While they definitely seem overpriced now, I wish I would have realized this before and been more bullish on them long term, but Tesla is basically like Amazon was.  They came into a market where all the competitors are basically dinosaurs stuck in their ways.  My 2014 Lexus has remarkably antiquated technology for the time as a small example. It should easily have had basically a computer onboard for my dash screen etc.  Anyway, they don't have huge union pensions to pay and they are also poised to make most of their money from the data from all the driving, for autonomous driving reasons; plus in theory be in the lead for the whole grid concept with electric cars etc.  Basically have a 'moat' of sorts to future proof themselves, while dinosaur car companies are too busy with execs that were focused on short term bonuses and the like.  They are only FINALLY coming around after a decade, especially Volkswagen. 

 

In Feb 2020 it was the unknown fear of corona virus.

Now that fewer than 1% healthy people are dying from corona the fear factor is not there.

The only thing against the market right now is gravity.

For example Tesla has market capitalization 11.5 times bigger than that of GM stock.

While GM sells more cars in dollar volume by orders of magnitude than Tesla.

While they definitely seem overpriced now, I wish I would have realized this before and been more bullish on them long term, but Tesla is basically like Amazon was.  They came into a market where all the competitors are basically dinosaurs stuck in their ways.  My 2014 Lexus has remarkably antiquated technology for the time as a small example. It should easily have had basically a computer onboard for my dash screen etc.  Anyway, they don't have huge union pensions to pay and they are also poised to make most of their money from the data from all the driving, for autonomous driving reasons; plus in theory be in the lead for the whole grid concept with electric cars etc.  Basically have a 'moat' of sorts to future proof themselves, while dinosaur car companies are too busy with execs that were focused on short term bonuses and the like.  They are only FINALLY coming around after a decade, especially Volkswagen. 

 

Perhaps ~950 for an IT top?

NYSI turned back down, it looks set for RSI to go below 30 now, though stocks could just keep grinding higher in the almost 3 month channel.

I am very cautious now about Feb. through March given the internals and that it has taken so long and we are still

not at 4000-4200.

Edited by CLK, 22 January 2021 - 04:36 PM.

#700 has been Golden so far, I think they would have to gap it down to break it, (JMHO)