The days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday September 11th and a window stretching from Wednesday September 13th till the morning of Thursday the 14th.
Of more importance is the upcoming crash risk window which stetches from Wednesday October 11th through Monday October 16th. I know, I know, none of the ones I have noted in the past have worked out, but I live by the maxim that if you can't predict accurately, predict often and vociferously. My optimistic crash target is gap fill and the A wave low at about 28,500. Before it finishes, I expect the C wave to reach the intersection of the 61.8% blue line and the green trend line at about ~25,500, or lower if things get really bad.
I believe the key is crude. If the black sticky stuff's march north has turned the inflation figures which will be released this coming 13th and 14th of September back up, J. Powell will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. His kinder and gentler inflation attack will have failed, and he will probably be forced to channel Volker and crank rates up enough to cause that recession that has failed to appear on cue.
My current EWave count also shown above, which surprisingly has survived quite a long while without major revision, shows the B wave of the current correction completing on August 1st. I must admit that the five wave green count leading up to that completion is more than a bit flaky. Any breach of the August 1st high will require a rethink. Also if J. Powell just accepts his Arthur Burns redux place in history and does not go full Postal on any new rise in inflation, my count and crash prediction will be wrong.
To get a bit dark for a moment, my pessimistic C wave target is the "4" of previous degree at about 18,200, the pandemic low. This will require a B-52 sized black swan event which are rare as hen's teeth, but is still within the faint realm of possibilities, just not all that likely, and probably would involve Putin or the new covid variant more than crude or J. Powell.
Regards,
Douglas