last week, though i had a favored view, i also had just a tad of uncertainty wrt which of the two front running views would be the most likely winner...
so i offered a bit more bullish view on the dow chart, and my more favored, but less bullish view on the spx chart.
methinks this week's market action has laid this matter to rest, with the more favored, but less bullish view prevailing.
in the charts below, the spx and dow are essentially in the same fractal count and also appear to have similar time targets as well as lower and upper megaphone channel line price targets, respectively.
i currently favor the spx to print a price low in the ~1150 range at or near the end of the month (3/29), then to rebound to new print highs up at the ~1240 range at or near the first week of may (5/2).
for the dow, the same time lines would hold with a print low in the 10,300 range and a new print high, but not a new ATH, in the 11,100 range.
and as always... twt.
--tsharp
dow & spx back on the same page...
Started by
tsharp
, Mar 19 2005 12:09 PM
8 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 19 March 2005 - 12:09 PM
#2
Posted 19 March 2005 - 12:59 PM
why, you may ask, do i seem to be so stuck on the ~1240 ending point for this segment of the cyclical bool market?
welp, in previous charts, i've attempted to make the case via. smaller inter-fractal fib relationships; additionally, there appears to be a potential megaphone formation (expanding diagonal triangle - imho, a terminal pattern) with the upper channel line crossing that same price level, which also seems to lend some support to this idea; and finally, there appears to be a potential larger channel line just above the current price level, which also happens to cross the same price level, coincidentally, at nearly the same time as the previous mentioned, appearing to create a confluence of time and price points at the ~1240 level.
in the chart below, i suggest there's also fib-nificant evidence that the 1530 orthodox high (jmho) has been a fib price magnet for many of the price ranges traded over the past two years... but whonoze.
--tsharp
welp, in previous charts, i've attempted to make the case via. smaller inter-fractal fib relationships; additionally, there appears to be a potential megaphone formation (expanding diagonal triangle - imho, a terminal pattern) with the upper channel line crossing that same price level, which also seems to lend some support to this idea; and finally, there appears to be a potential larger channel line just above the current price level, which also happens to cross the same price level, coincidentally, at nearly the same time as the previous mentioned, appearing to create a confluence of time and price points at the ~1240 level.
in the chart below, i suggest there's also fib-nificant evidence that the 1530 orthodox high (jmho) has been a fib price magnet for many of the price ranges traded over the past two years... but whonoze.
--tsharp
#3
Posted 19 March 2005 - 09:09 PM
Tim,
Thanks for your posts.
I've been thinking again. I can't help it.
I am suspicious of the oil/energy play running out. (In the short term anyway.)
But what if the powers that be could spike up oil in a blow-off type move near the end of the month/quarter?
Couldn't that splain a market sell-off to 1050?
And then what if we should see a big reversal in energy?
Couldn't that splain a rally into May.
Sorry. Just thinking out loud.
twt
kutgwts
(keep up the good work Tim Sharp)
Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 March 2005 - 09:09 PM.
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
Posted 19 March 2005 - 10:31 PM
Yes, thanks for the great charts!
I let the market tell me what to do. The trouble is she mumbles a lot, and I'm hard of hearing.
1576 ONO. Upside down, reverse, inside out, snort...
1576 ONO. Upside down, reverse, inside out, snort...
#5
Posted 20 March 2005 - 03:20 PM
Yes, thanks for the great charts!
you're welcome... i appreciate your stopping in from time to time, it's sort of become a one-man-show on this board lately... mebbe i need to change my deodorant er sumtin... ggg
here's the 130-min with out the forks... i've gone back to my first thoughts, as there didn't appear to be sufficient follow-through on friday to justify the running wave-b idea...
that said, i would guess we'll spend most of this week in a b-wave, then down in wave-c at week's end and into the following week.
we'll see.
--tsharp
#6
Posted 20 March 2005 - 08:38 PM
Great charts and analysis, thanks. Wish I had read your post before I posted, my wording would have been different.
Best to you, mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#7
Posted 21 March 2005 - 01:39 PM
I know you said you feel lonely here, but, I always read your posts and look at your charts. I don't usually comment. So thanks, I appreciate your time and effort. TY
#8
Posted 21 March 2005 - 04:08 PM
Tim,
I want to add my vote for you here - thanks for posting, and especially thanks for supporting my thoughts far more eloquently than I can myself.
I feel we need another bond rally to complete the pattern, and the only way we (probably) can get this with a stock rally is for the price of oil to drop. future month contracts stubbornly believe the equilib price is lower, so I think your scenario has good potential.
I didnt realize that anyone could post here - I thought it was by invite only.
best,
Karen
best,
klh
klh
#9
Posted 21 March 2005 - 05:42 PM
Tim, if noone else is really posting here, it is probably that they don't know any better!
Great work,
Thanks,
-kisa