34 replies to this topic

[isaac613]

I am not sure why anyone would comit money long into this market. Banks are all bankrupt. Look at skf today up 5% on an up day. Realestate is dead. Real unemployment is over 10%. Give me something that would make me bullish on this market and economy. I just don't see it. Sure we could rally 15 points and then fall like 100. Its possible. But buying for a small gain that might or might not come is not really worth the trouble.

[ogm]

Mark, what money ? from where ? 10Shekel, as for economic backdrop I think we haven't seen the real economic hit yet. All those consumers are broke and starting to lose jobs. Only STARTYING to lose jobs. All those states like California that can't pay their bills and will cvut spending dramaticaly, all those corporations who have turned form profitable to loses that are cutting spending. The real economic impact hasn't been felt yet. Corporate profitability is still under question. And at what leve it will stabilize we don't know yet. Mountain of bad paper is still out there and getting worse. Credit card loans, student loans, car loans, boob job loans, Municiapl loans, Corporate loans... you name it, .. the default rates are still rising. The tsunami of debt defaults hasn't even hit yet. Banks capital is still contracting. This isn't the end of economic problems, just the beginning. Maybe thats why "investors" aren't in a big hurry to start bidding up anything. Even that stimulus package, so it will be spent, and then what ? 200 bil in unemployment and COBRA will go into black hole. Tax cuts will be saved, 300 bil in infrastructure spending is nothing, thats why CAT is still laying off people. 300 bil is 3% of GDP. GDP is already contracting at 4% annual rate. Where is the stimulus ?

[ogm]

Those "investors" that are about to start buying stocks are an illusion ... Who are the "Investors" ? Corporate and state pension funds ? ... The UNDERFUNDED corporate and pension funds that are siutting on a mountian of illiquid paper ? The insolvent insurance companies ? The insolvent banks ? The individuals with no savings ? Who are those "investors" with mountains of money that are about to run out and buy a bunch of stocks ?

[zman]

the word HOPE is going to destroy a lot of dreams and inheritance

[stocks]

Ballmer gets it

Ballmer’s perceptive analysis of what is going on is:

“We’re certainly in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions. The perspective I would bring is not one of recession. Rather, the economy is resetting to lower level of business and consumer spending based largely on the reduced leverage in economy,” said Chief Executive Steve Ballmer during a conference call. For consumers, that may mean less discretionary income to spend on a second or third home computer, he said.

Bravo. That is precisely what is happening. It is also why, though government action might slow down the decline, ultimately it can’t prevent a serious decline in economic activity. That can happen only gradually as we slowly replace debt-generated spending capacity with income-generated capacity. What the government can do is remove the logjam standing in the way of that process, which is the crippling mountain of debt accumulated by the Ponzi financing behaviour of the last 4 decades (and in particular the last one). But that will require much more drastic action than simply bailouts: given the scale of debt accumulated, either the debt has to be devalued by inflation, or written down via government decree.

We’re still a long way from any government official or politician realising that. But the fact that someone as influential as Ballmer has put his finger on the problem implies that maybe that day of realisation is approaching.


http://www.debtdefla...allmer-gets-it/


(New lows in the market will finally force the "shock of recognition")

[trioderob]

Does sentiment drive the market, or does money?

Do traders drive the market or do investors?

Investors are as Bearish as they've ever been.

Traders, not so much.

So, it can go either way in here, except that if it doesn't fall soon, there's a tidal wave of money going to hit this thing, the likes of which we've never seen before. EVER.

So, near term? Weakness "ought" to materialize, but with each passing day, the upside becomes more probable and more dramatically likely.

I'm a big sentiment guy, as you know, but I know that sentiment isn't as easy or as linear as you might think.

Mark

Mark, thanks...I agree with your message, cept not this time. This is a once in a lifetime doozy...will go much further than most ever imagined. This sideline money is dead for a longtime. Plenty of trading to go round for bulls and bears...but until we see a rally take out something significant on volume??? Right now we are SPX 800-1000 for me.

just think about this

the guy with the $700,000 home in southern california
now has a $370,000 home.

he paid 390,000 for it six years ago

when is the 330 grand he just lost coming back ?

ok thats just one guy in los angeles

mulitply that by millions of homes in cali, florida etc,,,,,


so how CAN it come back fast?

it aint - this is going to take time

Edited by trioderob, 03 February 2009 - 12:55 PM.

[ed rader]

Does sentiment drive the market, or does money?

Do traders drive the market or do investors?

Investors are as Bearish as they've ever been.

Traders, not so much.

So, it can go either way in here, except that if it doesn't fall soon, there's a tidal wave of money going to hit this thing, the likes of which we've never seen before. EVER.

So, near term? Weakness "ought" to materialize, but with each passing day, the upside becomes more probable and more dramatically likely.

I'm a big sentiment guy, as you know, but I know that sentiment isn't as easy or as linear as you might think.

Mark

Mark, thanks...I agree with your message, cept not this time. This is a once in a lifetime doozy...will go much further than most ever imagined. This sideline money is dead for a longtime. Plenty of trading to go round for bulls and bears...but until we see a rally take out something significant on volume??? Right now we are SPX 800-1000 for me.

just think about this

the guy with the $700,000 home in southern california
now has a $370,000 home.

he paid 390,000 for it six years ago

when is the 330 grand he just lost coming back ?

ok thats just one guy in los angeles

mulitply that by millions of homes in cali, florida etc,,,,,


so how CAN it come back fast?

it aint - this is going to take time

my neighbor two houses down had his garbage cans confiscated a couple of weeks ago. his comcast was also turned off and he asked my other neighbor to help him pay since she also uses his internet service.

he is awaiting extraction from his house which he paid $240K for 13 years ago. he owes $513K. all my younger neighbors are upside down in their homes...

ed rader

[isaac613]

Alot of those same people that bought the million dollar houses cause they had the super job paying 500 G are now out of work and can't pay their mortage. Remember the unemployment is not getting better, it is getting worse every month. But of course if we did not lose 500 K Jobs they will try to rally the market on Friday on hope. Too funny. Its going to crumble and its going to happen soon because it is just taking its time to get enough people bullish like it did last year. Its the same story, different year. Its like dejavoue almost. Nenner coming on the tv saying we are going higher. Its almost comical.

[tradermama]

Does sentiment drive the market, or does money?

Do traders drive the market or do investors?

Investors are as Bearish as they've ever been.

Traders, not so much.

So, it can go either way in here, except that if it doesn't fall soon, there's a tidal wave of money going to hit this thing, the likes of which we've never seen before. EVER.

So, near term? Weakness "ought" to materialize, but with each passing day, the upside becomes more probable and more dramatically likely.

I'm a big sentiment guy, as you know, but I know that sentiment isn't as easy or as linear as you might think.

Mark

Hi Mark,
I don't normally post much but lately have put a few in here...I live in Orlando...and I'm the one that mentioned about Orange County putting out a bid on an infrastructure project (first in a while) and the bid was 1.7 million with 17 bidders..and the final bid being around 680k...you were mentioning you wanted to know what is going on...after I posted that..I talked to my husband who is a manager in public works...they don't feel they are really going to see the money at their level..they feel the state will take it...I"m sure this is going around all over the nation...I think the stimulus bill will not be our saving grace...they waited too long...yes, we have people ready to go to work on projects..but the money might not get down to the right levels that need it...

also, American Express is calling small businesses and individuals to verify their income with their last year 1040's now...this is new!...they are also reducing outstanding lines of credits..it happened to my son's business and I'm sure it is spreading...what do you think is going to happen to businesses who can't use those credit cards to keep afloat?..a lot more will go out of business because they waited too long...

My nature has always been optimistic...but I"m realistic first...The worse hasn't come yet..and I think the market knows it..time will tell imo.

Irene

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm sure folks are upside down all over the place. It doesn't matter going forward unless they have to sell. That 50% hair cut money was as illusory as the price advance. BUT, there's billions and billions upon billions in cash on the sidelines earning negative returns. Fiduciary duty will drive that back into the market at some point. Sooner rather than later. Period. Just give them some good news. And THAT is coming. Refis are happening all the time at a hellish pace. Next up is the '$7500-$15000 tax credit to new or anyold homebuyers. That's not chump change, guys. Much of it is going to get spent. Even extremely conservative and frugal types (like me) are going to spend some of that type of jack. Then, later on, we've got accelerated depreciation which is hugely stimulative. All this will take this market up 400-500 points. It may come back, and I think it will, to these levels, but you don't want to be on the wrong side of that move based upon the OBVIOUS gloom and doom. You don't have to get out in front of it, either. Just be open to it. Mark