Does sentiment drive the market, or does money?
Do traders drive the market or do investors?
Investors are as Bearish as they've ever been.
Traders, not so much.
So, it can go either way in here, except that if it doesn't fall soon, there's a tidal wave of money going to hit this thing, the likes of which we've never seen before. EVER.
So, near term? Weakness "ought" to materialize, but with each passing day, the upside becomes more probable and more dramatically likely.
I'm a big sentiment guy, as you know, but I know that sentiment isn't as easy or as linear as you might think.
Mark
Hi Mark,
I don't normally post much but lately have put a few in here...I live in Orlando...and I'm the one that mentioned about Orange County putting out a bid on an infrastructure project (first in a while) and the bid was 1.7 million with 17 bidders..and the final bid being around 680k...you were mentioning you wanted to know what is going on...after I posted that..I talked to my husband who is a manager in public works...they don't feel they are really going to see the money at their level..they feel the state will take it...I"m sure this is going around all over the nation...I think the stimulus bill will not be our saving grace...they waited too long...yes, we have people ready to go to work on projects..but the money might not get down to the right levels that need it...
also, American Express is calling small businesses and individuals to verify their income with their last year 1040's now...this is new!...they are also reducing outstanding lines of credits..it happened to my son's business and I'm sure it is spreading...what do you think is going to happen to businesses who can't use those credit cards to keep afloat?..a lot more will go out of business because they waited too long...
My nature has always been optimistic...but I"m realistic first...The worse hasn't come yet..and I think the market knows it..time will tell imo.
Irene
Irene, I'm sure your concerns were legit. I just wanted to say that I wasn't even considering the state and local spending in my calculus. I consider it at best a wash, longer term as needed projects are offset by waste and unnecessary projects.
Credit lines drying up IS a problem. That's why the market is down, in part. IF we get just a little bit lucky, the rest of the stimulus mentioned elsewhere will offset this and make the banks feel a bit more comfortable.
Mark