34 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Does sentiment drive the market, or does money?

Do traders drive the market or do investors?

Investors are as Bearish as they've ever been.

Traders, not so much.

So, it can go either way in here, except that if it doesn't fall soon, there's a tidal wave of money going to hit this thing, the likes of which we've never seen before. EVER.

So, near term? Weakness "ought" to materialize, but with each passing day, the upside becomes more probable and more dramatically likely.

I'm a big sentiment guy, as you know, but I know that sentiment isn't as easy or as linear as you might think.

Mark

Hi Mark,
I don't normally post much but lately have put a few in here...I live in Orlando...and I'm the one that mentioned about Orange County putting out a bid on an infrastructure project (first in a while) and the bid was 1.7 million with 17 bidders..and the final bid being around 680k...you were mentioning you wanted to know what is going on...after I posted that..I talked to my husband who is a manager in public works...they don't feel they are really going to see the money at their level..they feel the state will take it...I"m sure this is going around all over the nation...I think the stimulus bill will not be our saving grace...they waited too long...yes, we have people ready to go to work on projects..but the money might not get down to the right levels that need it...

also, American Express is calling small businesses and individuals to verify their income with their last year 1040's now...this is new!...they are also reducing outstanding lines of credits..it happened to my son's business and I'm sure it is spreading...what do you think is going to happen to businesses who can't use those credit cards to keep afloat?..a lot more will go out of business because they waited too long...

My nature has always been optimistic...but I"m realistic first...The worse hasn't come yet..and I think the market knows it..time will tell imo.

Irene

Irene, I'm sure your concerns were legit. I just wanted to say that I wasn't even considering the state and local spending in my calculus. I consider it at best a wash, longer term as needed projects are offset by waste and unnecessary projects.

Credit lines drying up IS a problem. That's why the market is down, in part. IF we get just a little bit lucky, the rest of the stimulus mentioned elsewhere will offset this and make the banks feel a bit more comfortable.

Mark

[Shazzam]

Mark, I assume u mean SP pts and not Dow.

[GreatWarrior]

Refis are happening all the time at a hellish pace.
Mark

Mark, I know you read the headlines, but the truth is wayyyy far from the truth. I humbly suggest this site: http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/

This is a seasoned mortgage broker of decades. The truth to refinancing -- 1) multiple applications from each applicant due to tighter rules and much more rejections. 2) the mortgage index is based on the top 50 largest brokers. Guess what? Many small and medium mum-pop shops have closed, and now the largest surviving 50 mortgage brokers are gaining more market share, therefore rendering a false impression that the index is going higher.

Based on the other not-so-well-known-index that is only known to brokers, and which tracks unique applications, the real story is refi applications only went up around 5%. And that was back in Dec when mortgage rate dropped to record low. Check his site to find out more accurate numbers.

Your refi dream is dead, frankly.

[typicalbear]

Several members of my family are still invested, but they're waiting for any kind of rally and they....they to will be adding to the amount of cash on the sidelines.

[tommyt]

All this will take this market up 400-500 points. It may come back, and I think it will, to these levels, but you don't want to be on the wrong side of that move based upon the OBVIOUS gloom and doom. Mark, you are talking about a 400-500 pt rally cause there are billions and billions on the sidelines? needing a spark? thats peanuts, and I would be looking for that also...thats 5%. We have had a series of 700-1000 pt rallies in this bear... I thought the way you were talking about billions on the sidelines, and that a 2000+ pt rally was soon.

[ogm]

Speaking of hope. Pisiani on CNBC says that since the jobs report on Friday is expected to be very bad, some people now expect it to be better then expected and be a positive surprize. Drivel extraodinaire.

[OEXCHAOS]

Refis are happening all the time at a hellish pace.
Mark

Mark, I know you read the headlines, but the truth is wayyyy far from the truth. I humbly suggest this site: http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/

This is a seasoned mortgage broker of decades. The truth to refinancing -- 1) multiple applications from each applicant due to tighter rules and much more rejections. 2) the mortgage index is based on the top 50 largest brokers. Guess what? Many small and medium mum-pop shops have closed, and now the largest surviving 50 mortgage brokers are gaining more market share, therefore rendering a false impression that the index is going higher.

Based on the other not-so-well-known-index that is only known to brokers, and which tracks unique applications, the real story is refi applications only went up around 5%. And that was back in Dec when mortgage rate dropped to record low. Check his site to find out more accurate numbers.

Your refi dream is dead, frankly.

All I know is that my banker is so crushed with work she can't see straight. Bear in mind that there are folks who refied in November and who can do it again right now. And they are.

How busy is Don?

Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

All this will take this market up 400-500 points. It may come back, and I think it will, to these levels, but you don't want to be on the wrong side of that move based upon the OBVIOUS gloom and doom.

Mark, you are talking about a 400-500 pt rally cause there are billions and billions on the sidelines? needing a spark? thats peanuts, and I would be looking for that also...thats 5%. We have had a series of 700-1000 pt rallies in this bear... I thought the way you were talking about billions on the sidelines, and that a 2000+ pt rally was soon.

No, 500 S&P points.

50%, maybe more.

There will be folks shorting it all the way up, too. Based upon all these obvious fundamentals.

Mark

[LoNotes]

This is the most fascinating thread we've had in a long time. Everyone is right about what they see around them. We all see what is closest to where we live and what we do. In the end, logic just may be the trader's enemy and the market will rip upwards.

[typicalbear]

If higher earnings drive markets higher, then what do lower eanings do to markets? Why is everyone ignoring this basic fundamental? Is anyone expecting earnings to improve?