31 replies to this topic

[HoseB]

[
But it's a matter of earnings and PEs... SP earnings were $46 in November (12-month trailing), will be lower after this quarter.. maybe even $30... or will hit that later in the year. 10x PE x $30 = SP of 300. Currently the PE is 20-ish... hardly cheap.

If the markets stay down, investors will get more discouraged and PEs likely to erode.

I think SP 300 is easily reasonable.. .maybe significantly lower, too.

I thought on a prominently TA board like this, P/E ratio based projections are a no-no?
Now you are entering the "Funnymentals" zone, my man.

Didn't say "I made trades based upon PEs"... just saying the market is not currently cheap and could reasonably go much lower.... not 300 on this leg, however.... at THE bottom... 2014-2016 maybe?

Edited by HoseB, 14 February 2009 - 02:15 AM.

[humble1]

why not project earnings to $15? we can go to 5X's that and end at spx 75. i knew it: you people are all bulls who think spx 210 will hold!

Edited by humble1, 14 February 2009 - 03:53 AM.

[HoseB]

why not project earnings to $15? we can go to 5X's that and end at spx 75. i knew it: you people are all bulls who think spx 210 will hold!

Why not be open to possibilities? Market has ruined many a player who "thought he was right"..or, "the market just couldn't __________"

Edited by HoseB, 14 February 2009 - 09:42 AM.

[humble1]

yes, why NOT rationalize this delusional bearishness with any and all kinds of bizarre ideas? why NOT use a completely unrealistic and irrelevant "e" and "p/e" to allow absurd predictions to seem reasonable? i'll tell you why: because that is the way for you bears to get your butts kicked into the next ice age and that is what is about to happen!

Edited by humble1, 14 February 2009 - 09:54 AM.

[HoseB]

yes, why NOT rationalize this delusional bearishness with any and all kinds of bizarre ideas? why NOT use a completely unrealistic and irrelevant "e" and "p/e" to allow absurd predictions to seem reasonable?

i'll tell you why: because that is the way for you bears to get your butts kicked into the next ice age and that is what is about to happen!

You strike me as irrationally bullish, and I can't understand it. And as you declare your devotion to the bull case several times daily, you remind me of Kudlow... can't tolerate his rant either... but he's paid to be perpetually bullish on the air. What's your deal?

[humble1]

straight flush

[HoseB]

straight flush

Hope you can tell the difference between a poker hand and a swirly...

[VolPivots]

Man oh man - I LOVE this stuff. This is exactly the kind of doom and gloom required for a good upswing. Music to my ears. I almost wish I was fully invested. I'm playing the sucker's game like everybody else - waiting/hoping for a couple months that we'll retest 741. If and when the market retest the lows, it will happen in such a way that even those "waiting" will fall prey to the fear and then revaluate and decide to wait for an even lower low. Never fails.

Sure, there will be buying at 740 when/if tested...

But it's a matter of earnings and PEs... SP earnings were $46 in November (12-month trailing), will be lower after this quarter.. maybe even $30... or will hit that later in the year. 10x PE x $30 = SP of 300. Currently the PE is 20-ish... hardly cheap.

If the markets stay down, investors will get more discouraged and PEs likely to erode.

I think SP 300 is easily reasonable.. .maybe significantly lower, too.

the current facts from Bob Bronson.....i dunno how much financials account for the collapse, but nevertheless.......

Attached Files

•  bronson_p_e.bmp   2.15MB   146 downloads

[Rogerdodger]

the current facts from Bob Bronson.....i dunno how much financials account for the collapse, but nevertheless.......


Attached File(s) bronson_p_e.bmp ( 2.15MB ) Number of downloads: 26

A PE of 58?

I will say that at the beginning of the post 2002 bull run, the PE was incredibly high.
I figured that there was no way it could rally much.
Oops.

[OEXCHAOS]

[
But it's a matter of earnings and PEs... SP earnings were $46 in November (12-month trailing), will be lower after this quarter.. maybe even $30... or will hit that later in the year. 10x PE x $30 = SP of 300. Currently the PE is 20-ish... hardly cheap.

If the markets stay down, investors will get more discouraged and PEs likely to erode.

I think SP 300 is easily reasonable.. .maybe significantly lower, too.

I thought on a prominently TA board like this, P/E ratio based projections are a no-no?
Now you are entering the "Funnymentals" zone, my man.

Didn't say "I made trades based upon PEs"... just saying the market is not currently cheap and could reasonably go much lower.... not 300 on this leg, however.... at THE bottom... 2014-2016 maybe?

Would the market be cheap if the P/E were 2 but inflation was 10% instead of 0%?

Just askin'.

Think about normalizing P/E relative to inflation and interest rates and you may want to ditch the big screw up banks from the calculations.

Mark