hi denmo,
In reviewing your posts, you want the March 13th low to hold or else down we go into 2011-2012. Is that your same view? Do you expect the lows to hold into this Friday?
I've been camping and could not follow the markets. I was looking for the 14 day low to buy for a trade but missed it by a day last week.
I have been bullish on crude in the current 44/45 week cycle as posted in this thread. Crude just started a new 22/23 week cycle in July, but the 44/45 week cycle has topped and is now pointing down, while the 88/90 week cycle is still pointing up. From here one has to decide if crude has the strength to break above $75 or not.
At some point I won't be playing this market much until a long term bottom arrives. That long term low may take until 2011. In the meantime, the 14 day cycle is the simplest cycle to follow and play.
I now have to wait and see how the 14 and 28 day cycles unfold. They are due to bottom early next week. If crude rallies into that date, it could mean an important IT top and I'd then wait until a Sept. low for a trade. If crude falls into that next 14 day low, I'd look to buy for a trade.
Hope that helps everyone. I'm about to pack up my PC and move house. So I may not be online for a short while.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 10 August 2009 - 10:58 PM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain