85 replies to this topic

[denmo83]

hi denmo,

The USL short term target for the 14 day cycle is about 37. I've got a mental stop here for USL just under my entry at ~33. I'll look for a positive cycle here in the current 14 day cycle that started Monday, July 13th. Other than that its watch and wait.

cheers,

john

Hi John,

Thanks to you and Echo for your insite this past week. I took profits on all my positions today when we popped at the open. Could be premature, but the positions were full size and too much profit to ignore.

I have triple negative divergence on the 15 minute MACD, so not wanting to risk a general market pullback. Will look to re-enter, if it lets me. LOL.

[denmo83]

hi denmo,

The USL short term target for the 14 day cycle is about 37. I've got a mental stop here for USL just under my entry at ~33. I'll look for a positive cycle here in the current 14 day cycle that started Monday, July 13th. Other than that its watch and wait.

cheers,

john

Hi John,

Thanks to you and Echo for your insite this past week. I took profits on all my positions today when we popped at the open. Could be premature, but the positions were full size and too much profit to ignore.

I have triple negative divergence on the 15 minute MACD, so not wanting to risk a general market pullback. Will look to re-enter, if it lets me. LOL.

That triple neg D/15 min is on the SPX. Looks like the hourly MACD topped out Thursday. Looking for a pullback to re-load.

[SilentOne]

The USL short term target for the 14 day cycle is about 37. I've got a mental stop here for USL just under my entry at ~33. I'll look for a positive cycle here in the current 14 day cycle that started Monday, July 13th.

I've taken 1/2 profits on the USL trade here today at $37.28. This was not a full position. I'll leave the remainder in. The next date for crude to watch comes at the next 14 day cycle low due late next week. The next major turn may not be until mid-Aug (IT Top?). I'm very busy the next few weeks so I don't have time to fully follow the markets.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

I've decided to go flat oil. Ten days straight up from the July 13th low. I'll look to see what comes late next week. Won't be around much till mid-August. cheers, john

[denmo83]

I've decided to go flat oil. Ten days straight up from the July 13th low. I'll look to see what comes late next week. Won't be around much till mid-August.



cheers,

john

Hi John,

Not sure if you're still around, but I wanted to congratulate you on how well you called and positioned yourself this month. Outstanding!

In reviewing your posts, you want the March 13th low to hold or else down we go into 2011-2012. Is that your same view? Do you expect the lows to hold into this Friday?

[inamosa]

Any update you can provide would be appreciated, John Hope you enjoyed your time away

[SilentOne]

hi denmo,

In reviewing your posts, you want the March 13th low to hold or else down we go into 2011-2012. Is that your same view? Do you expect the lows to hold into this Friday?

I've been camping and could not follow the markets. I was looking for the 14 day low to buy for a trade but missed it by a day last week.

I have been bullish on crude in the current 44/45 week cycle as posted in this thread. Crude just started a new 22/23 week cycle in July, but the 44/45 week cycle has topped and is now pointing down, while the 88/90 week cycle is still pointing up. From here one has to decide if crude has the strength to break above $75 or not.



At some point I won't be playing this market much until a long term bottom arrives. That long term low may take until 2011. In the meantime, the 14 day cycle is the simplest cycle to follow and play.




I now have to wait and see how the 14 and 28 day cycles unfold. They are due to bottom early next week. If crude rallies into that date, it could mean an important IT top and I'd then wait until a Sept. low for a trade. If crude falls into that next 14 day low, I'd look to buy for a trade.

Hope that helps everyone. I'm about to pack up my PC and move house. So I may not be online for a short while.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 10 August 2009 - 10:58 PM.

[denmo83]

hi denmo,

In reviewing your posts, you want the March 13th low to hold or else down we go into 2011-2012. Is that your same view? Do you expect the lows to hold into this Friday?

I've been camping and could not follow the markets. I was looking for the 14 day low to buy for a trade but missed it by a day last week.

I have been bullish on crude in the current 44/45 week cycle as posted in this thread. Crude just started a new 22/23 week cycle in July, but the 44/45 week cycle has topped and is now pointing down, while the 88/90 week cycle is still pointing up. From here one has to decide if crude has the strength to break above $75 or not.



At some point I won't be playing this market much until a long term bottom arrives. That long term low may take until 2011. In the meantime, the 14 day cycle is the simplest cycle to follow and play.




I now have to wait and see how the 14 and 28 day cycles unfold. They are due to bottom early next week. If crude rallies into that date, it could mean an important IT top and I'd then wait until a Sept. low for a trade. If crude falls into that next 14 day low, I'd look to buy for a trade.

Hope that helps everyone. I'm about to pack up my PC and move house. So I may not be online for a short while.

cheers,

john

Hi John and once again, I thank you for sharing your work.

You're looking for thr next 14 day low early next week. My simple count say the 14 day low should come Thursday unless it's early. Does that sound right?

[SilentOne]

hi denmo,

You're looking for the next 14 day low early next week. My simple count say the 14 day low should come Thursday unless it's early. Does that sound right?

Just moved house and still unpacking. I'm on my kids PC and don't have things entirely setup yet.

On a straight day count, a 14 and 28 trading day cycle low is due later this week. It is worth a long trade, but I am not sure that crude will be able to breakout above $75 thereafter. Crude is now in the 26th week off the Feb. low and at some point it will be heading down into a 44/45 week low. For crude to make a major run beyond $75, it will need help from the USD (ie. weakness) and I am not convinced that will be coming this year anymore.

One currency pair I watch very closely is the USD/CAD pair. I have been looking for a 40 and 80 week Hurst cycle low for this pair. If it has arrived (thought it might have been in June but that proved early), then the $CDN is weak for at least the next 20 weeks minimum if not much longer and that will do nothing for crude IMO. This also suggests the commodity sector will take a hit or at least pause in a major way. Gold is the clearest asset to watch now and should lead liquidity (up or down, but I think down into major cycle lows). The $CDN is also a tell IMO.

I think crude is only for trading at these levels unless we get a good pullback by the end of the week.

I won't be doing much this week.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Went long USL just above $37 late today. Partial position. I'm going off the fact that we are in the 14th day off the last 14 day cycle low. Merriman has an important turn date for a number of markets so it will be interesting to see what transpires here. Will add tomorrow down to $36. That level should see decent support. Simply a trade into month end for now. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 August 2009 - 03:06 PM.