85 replies to this topic

[Echo]

Now while the 44/45 week cycle will be topping out soon, we still have the start of a new 22/23 week cycle coming in here

John, if you use the price low in Mid February as the last nest of lows, I count that we are 20wks out from that low. If your long term analysis suggests 22/23wk cycles, it appears that there could be 2 more weeks hard to the downside right here. In light of that, its a good strategy to scale in as you are doing. If this next couple of weeks does play into the teeth of the 22/23wk cycle, it just may be possible to reach the bearish targets. Time will tell my friend.

Echo

[Lysis]

Hi, John. I think the 7 day cycle has been the way to play USL for the last few months. With that in mind, I agree with you, USL is tremendously oversold and should be ready to turn around. I'm looking to start a position with a tight stop at 32. A more "conservative" way to go would be to look for a close breaking 33.91.

[gismeu]

Echo, when you say, "If Z is right that the USD is itching to take off, those lows could just be met." but is the correlation not such that if the US dollar gets stronger, that that is bearish for oil? thanks, gis

[denmo83]

hi denmo & Echo,

I've only taken a partial position in USL, but will add more at the next 14 day cycle low. The 14 day cycle has been very distinct so I am going with that rather than the bearish FLD target. I count that the current 14 day cycle should have bottomed on Friday, or possibly Monday.

But it is the longer cycles that are of interest here. The last phasing I posted early this year was correct IMO. That had the 44/45 and 88/90 week cycles nest of lows mid-Feb. Now while the 44/45 week cycle will be topping out soon, we still have the start of a new 22/23 week cycle coming in here and the 88/90 week cycle pointing up. So crude can start a rally anytime and last for a few weeks, but possibly it could rally until the 88/90 week cycle tops out late this year. For now there is no way to forecast this on my part. I do feel that crude will be about the last thing to top out before we enter a bearish cycle in commodities and equities next year. Crude oil for exampe will be heading into a 4.5 year Hurst cycle low late next year as the next 44/45 week and the current 88/90 week cycles find a bottom.



cheers,

john

P.S. denmo, it's been a while. Hope you are well.

Been a long time John. All good here, 2nd kid starts college next month. Just Me, Mo and the dog now.

Thanks for sharing your cycle work. Hope all is well by you.

[SilentOne]

hi Echo, I'm watching a number of things that suggests a turn in crude is near. The USD/CDN is a tell IMO. I've covered the long USD positions last week against the CDN and I think a low has been made in this pair. If so it would support a rally in crude. The other thing is a straight count off the late April low where I have the last 11 week low (56 days). It would take at least another 7 day count from the 14 day low here to confirm a larger low (if it forms) so we'll see. cheers, john

[Echo]

Echo,

when you say,

"If Z is right that the USD is itching to take off, those lows could just be met."

but is the correlation not such that if the US dollar gets stronger, that that is bearish for oil?

thanks, gis

Yes gis, and that was my point. Oil could go down to the FLD target of 30 and not up (for the next 1-2wks that is).

Echo

[denmo83]

hi denmo & Echo,

I've only taken a partial position in USL, but will add more at the next 14 day cycle low. The 14 day cycle has been very distinct so I am going with that rather than the bearish FLD target. I count that the current 14 day cycle should have bottomed on Friday, or possibly Monday.

But it is the longer cycles that are of interest here. The last phasing I posted early this year was correct IMO. That had the 44/45 and 88/90 week cycles nest of lows mid-Feb. Now while the 44/45 week cycle will be topping out soon, we still have the start of a new 22/23 week cycle coming in here and the 88/90 week cycle pointing up. So crude can start a rally anytime and last for a few weeks, but possibly it could rally until the 88/90 week cycle tops out late this year. For now there is no way to forecast this on my part. I do feel that crude will be about the last thing to top out before we enter a bearish cycle in commodities and equities next year. Crude oil for exampe will be heading into a 4.5 year Hurst cycle low late next year as the next 44/45 week and the current 88/90 week cycles find a bottom.



cheers,

john

P.S. denmo, it's been a while. Hope you are well.

Another question. Do you go for the 2nd, 14 day low so to be sure the low is in? Or are you confident that 58.32 was the low set on Monday?

[SilentOne]

denmo, I've taken only a partial position in USL. The day count says a bounce should initiate now. But crude will have to show a bullish trend into the current 7 day cycle and 14 day cycle. There are no bullish FLD targets that have been generated yet on these cycles. So it could take until next week to confirm a buy. The safer buy could well be the next 14 day low. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 14 July 2009 - 09:51 PM.

[denmo83]

denmo,

I've taken only a partial position in USL. The day count says a bounce should initiate now. But crude will have to show a bullish trend into the current 7 day cycle and 14 day cycle. There are no bullish FLD targets that have been generated yet on these cycles. So it could take until next week to confirm a buy. The safer buy could well be the next 14 day low.

cheers,

john

My local gas station had regular gas @ 2.61/gal. on July 10th when I open my oil positions, with oil at 59.88/barrel. Today, with oil at 64.58/barrel, regular at the same station is 2.58/gal.. Are they not buying into the 5.00/barrel hike? What are your thoughts here john.echo? Think we've seen the lows? Pullback due this week? TIA.

[SilentOne]

hi denmo, The USL short term target for the 14 day cycle is about 37. I've got a mental stop here for USL just under my entry at ~33. I'll look for a positive cycle here in the current 14 day cycle that started Monday, July 13th. Other than that its watch and wait. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 19 July 2009 - 11:49 PM.