36 replies to this topic

[TheArchitect]

how bout the simpliest of simple...the spx 500 with a 200day ema???

or the spx weekly and monthly with a 20, 50 ema...

you cant dispute that we are in a bear mkt using the most easily identifiable tools.....

try the coppock

Coppock's original equation is slow... it can be modified however though... using the ROI's of the A/D on a daily (in lieu of ROI's of price)... with the same ROI parameters... fwiw it's turning down since crossing above the zero line mid march... but it has not crossed back below the zero line yet.

[nimblebear]

my favorite indicator is my own personal BS indicator. I can spot fraud, liars, and majority of just plain bs. Its become a refined sixth sense for me. In my career in sales and engineering, its allowed me to post consistently high close ratios, walk away from incredibly bad deals, bad customers, and keep things like my home, my investment portfolio, my finances, my family, growing and out of a lot of trouble. Coupled with a very high literacy comprehension rate, testing out of all required college english classes while sophomore in HS,and a comprehensive background in linguistics, its fairly easy for me now to spot patterns in word use, and detect people who are basic fraudsters and liars or just plain bs artists. How people spell, type, their word choices, inconsistency, grammar, coined terms and phrases all lead to a very reliable indicator of how truthful people are, or being, and who can be trusted or not. Having dealt with literally thousands of people in business, thousands of business transactions, I have proven it out time and again. I use it to determine which web-sites, posters, bloggers, are credible, and what companies to choose to do business with. I also use body language and patterns in speech and tonal changes to detect what is true or not true in conversations. Over the years, What I find amazing is how many people tell so many lies day in and day out, and then themselves actually begin to believe what they are saying is true, or find they can get away with telling so many so called "white lies" where they feel noone will ever detect it or prove them wrong. People who tend to learn how I am, especially in business tend to say much less and are a lot more careful. They become uncomfortable, as they should be, as they often figure out that I am on to them. They will even try to resort to verbal communications, avoid written communications, thinking I can't catch them in their inconsistencies, won't remember what they say, or can't possibly hold them to something later if its not in writing. They couldn't be more wrong which generally ends up in their undoing. So just sayin' - Be careful of some posters out there. And choose your indicators wisely.

[TheArchitect]

how bout the simpliest of simple...the spx 500 with a 200day ema???

or the spx weekly and monthly with a 20, 50 ema...

you cant dispute that we are in a bear mkt using the most easily identifiable tools.....

try the coppock

Coppock's original equation is slow... it can be modified however though... using the ROI's of the A/D on a daily (in lieu of ROI's of price)... with the same ROI parameters... fwiw it's turning down since crossing above the zero line mid march... but it has not crossed back below the zero line yet.

also... you can subtract 50 from a smoothed RSI and watch it perform as Coppock's original formula would... crossing above and below a zero line all day/week/month long (depending on your timeframe)... this works very well to jump in the middle of a trend (VST/ST/IT/LT, etc...) and catch 1-2 points on a 500-1500 tick ES chart.

[TheArchitect]

In my career in sales and engineering

are you in sales? or are you an Engineer?

[snorkels4]

my favorite indicator is my own personal BS indicator.

I can spot fraud, liars, and majority of just plain bs. Its become a refined sixth sense for me. In my career in sales and engineering, its allowed me to post consistently high close ratios, walk away from incredibly bad deals, bad customers, and keep things like my home, my investment portfolio, my finances, my family, growing and out of a lot of trouble. Coupled with a very high literacy comprehension rate, testing out of all required college english classes while sophomore in HS,and a comprehensive background in linguistics, its fairly easy for me now to spot patterns in word use, and detect people who are basic fraudsters and liars or just plain bs artists. How people spell, type, their word choices, inconsistency, grammar, coined terms and phrases all lead to a very reliable indicator of how truthful people are, or being, and who can be trusted or not. Having dealt with literally thousands of people in business, thousands of business transactions, I have proven it out time and again. I use it to determine which web-sites, posters, bloggers, are credible, and what companies to choose to do business with.

I also use body language and patterns in speech and tonal changes to detect what is true or not true in conversations. Over the years, What I find amazing is how many people tell so many lies day in and day out, and then themselves actually begin to believe what they are saying is true, or find they can get away with telling so many so called "white lies" where they feel noone will ever detect it or prove them wrong. People who tend to learn how I am, especially in business tend to say much less and are a lot more careful. They become uncomfortable, as they should be, as they often figure out that I am on to them. They will even try to resort to verbal communications, avoid written communications, thinking I can't catch them in their inconsistencies, won't remember what they say, or can't possibly hold them to something later if its not in writing. They couldn't be more wrong which generally ends up in their undoing.

So just sayin' - Be careful of some posters out there. And choose your indicators wisely.

for those who lack your ability handwriting analysis is pretty cool

[...]

the proof is in the pudding

Actually, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.



But, I heartily agree with your assessment of this thread and the market situation in general and rather doubt that the bulls will think their pudding is very tasty a month or two or six from now.

Beyond the fact that this entire rally has been built on a technical house of cards, from a longer-term perspective, we are facing tremendous disincentives to growth. An entirely different situation from, say, the market low in 1982 when we were emerging from the last major recession with pro-growth policies being enacted like major marginal-rate tax cuts and major regulatory relief.

Now, we have imminent marginal-rate personal income tax increases on the most productive. Capital gains taxes will increase. There are huge new costs (read future taxes) behind any ridiculous "national health" legislation and huge new costs (read current hidden taxes in the form of higher prices) to any ridiculous "cap and trade" energy legislation. Plus yet another pile of useless new financial regulations to stifle innovation.

Add in the desire to tax non-U.S. corporate profits whether repatriated or not. Add in the desire to ignore potential domestic oil and gas exploration and cut incentives to do so. Add in state tax increases all over the map. Add in local tax increases anywhere and everywhere. Even with another tax revolt, all of this stuff is going to happen to greater or lesser degree and none of it is anything but highly deleterious to growth.

Without growth, earnings stink, there's a limit to cost-cutting. If earnings stink, stock prices crater. Even Kudlow would probably admit that there is in process an almost endless stream of depredations to the marginal value of capital investment. End of story.

[BWTrader]

I totally agree with almost everything CLK said, but perhaps not regarding direction. As for me, I'm suspicious about this summer and would not be surprised to see some sort of repeat of the summer of 2000, possibly grinding down isntead of up. Summer of 2000 had only a few good entry points. If you missed them you might as well have spent the summer in Europe sightseeing. BW

[da_cheif]

the proof is in the pudding

Actually, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.



But, I heartily agree with your assessment of this thread and the market situation in general and rather doubt that the bulls will think their pudding is very tasty a month or two or six from now.

Beyond the fact that this entire rally has been built on a technical house of cards, from a longer-term perspective, we are facing tremendous disincentives to growth. An entirely different situation from, say, the market low in 1982 when we were emerging from the last major recession with pro-growth policies being enacted like major marginal-rate tax cuts and major regulatory relief.

Now, we have imminent marginal-rate personal income tax increases on the most productive. Capital gains taxes will increase. There are huge new costs (read future taxes) behind any ridiculous "national health" legislation and huge new costs (read current hidden taxes in the form of higher prices) to any ridiculous "cap and trade" energy legislation. Plus yet another pile of useless new financial regulations to stifle innovation.

Add in the desire to tax non-U.S. corporate profits whether repatriated or not. Add in the desire to ignore potential domestic oil and gas exploration and cut incentives to do so. Add in state tax increases all over the map. Add in local tax increases anywhere and everywhere. Even with another tax revolt, all of this stuff is going to happen to greater or lesser degree and none of it is anything but highly deleterious to growth.

Without growth, earnings stink, there's a limit to cost-cutting. If earnings stink, stock prices crater. Even Kudlow would probably admit that there is in process an almost endless stream of depredations to the marginal value of capital investment. End of story.

u sound just like a guy i knew on CB forum.....zedor....

[Rogerdodger]

This is not a bear market rally

This discussion reminds me of one I often hear in Oklahoma:
Was it a tornado or straight winds?

Who cares when your house is gone!

[atlasshrugged]

my favorite indicator is my own personal BS indicator.

I can spot fraud, liars, and majority of just plain bs. Its become a refined sixth sense for me. In my career in sales and engineering, its allowed me to post consistently high close ratios, walk away from incredibly bad deals, bad customers, and keep things like my home, my investment portfolio, my finances, my family, growing and out of a lot of trouble. Coupled with a very high literacy comprehension rate, testing out of all required college english classes while sophomore in HS,and a comprehensive background in linguistics, its fairly easy for me now to spot patterns in word use, and detect people who are basic fraudsters and liars or just plain bs artists. How people spell, type, their word choices, inconsistency, grammar, coined terms and phrases all lead to a very reliable indicator of how truthful people are, or being, and who can be trusted or not. Having dealt with literally thousands of people in business, thousands of business transactions, I have proven it out time and again. I use it to determine which web-sites, posters, bloggers, are credible, and what companies to choose to do business with.

I also use body language and patterns in speech and tonal changes to detect what is true or not true in conversations. Over the years, What I find amazing is how many people tell so many lies day in and day out, and then themselves actually begin to believe what they are saying is true, or find they can get away with telling so many so called "white lies" where they feel noone will ever detect it or prove them wrong. People who tend to learn how I am, especially in business tend to say much less and are a lot more careful. They become uncomfortable, as they should be, as they often figure out that I am on to them. They will even try to resort to verbal communications, avoid written communications, thinking I can't catch them in their inconsistencies, won't remember what they say, or can't possibly hold them to something later if its not in writing. They couldn't be more wrong which generally ends up in their undoing.

So just sayin' - Be careful of some posters out there. And choose your indicators wisely.

wow...what do you think of me?