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SPX monthly outlook - October, 09


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#11 stanley

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 01:23 PM

Brief updates

( a ) Near term: Tug war between 1083-1132

Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM
“If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158,
There is some tough work for both bulls/bears in the range 1083-1132.”

Since 10/14,
First attempted on Lower bound 1,081.53 on 10/16
First attempted on higher bound 1,100.17 on 10/19
spx1020.JPG

( b ) Status of 109 trading day cycle low

root 11/21/08--04/28/09--(09/28--10/20)

time window
106 days due by 09/28-09
110 days due by 10/02/09 this cycle marked a secondary low on 10/02/09
120 days due by 10/20/09

The low observed on 10/02 was 1,019.95, not lower enough (1000-1014) to trigger an early reversal confirmation.

( c ) Fibonacci Time Zones ( details refer to POST #7)

“There are 1260 (1259) trading days from 10/10/2002 Low to 10/11/2007 High”

from 10/10/02 to 10/11/07, 1259 trading days
from 10/11/07 to 10/19/09, 509 trading days

ratio 0.4043 (0.404 is met, 0.404 + 0.382 = 0.786)
was that it? I don’t know

from 10/11/07 to 03/06/09, 352 trading days
from 03/06/09 to 10/19/09,157 trading days

ratio 0.446
if the ratio is 0.500, it is due by NOV 13

( d ) Half power point (0.707 * 0.707 = 0.5)

1576 * 0.707 = 1114

#12 stanley

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 03:09 PM

Adventurer & Harbinger - Evergreen Marine Corp (EMC) CEO Outlook

Baltic Dry Index
http://en.wikipedia....altic_Dry_Index

archive post Oct 2 2008, 04:53 PM
link
Evergreen Marine Corp (EMC)
Posted Image
CEO Dr Yung-Fa Chang predicted “World economy slow down will drag for 3 years, fall in the valley bottom in 2011 and pick up in 2012”
Dr Chang has good records on predicting the worldwide economy. British Lloyd's daily paper praised Chang’s vision. EMS did not build new ships while competitors rushed building big Container ship. EMS avoided this down trend.

EMC profile:
Asia's largest container shipping company by fleet size.
With more than 240 service locations, EMC covers more than 80 countries with its shipping network. Evergreen's network includes several east-west routes linking Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Mainland China, Korea and Japan with the east and west coasts of the US. It also provides services from Japan, Korea, Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean.

The Ten Largest Container Shipping Companies Visualized
http://gcaptain.com/...ies-visualized/
Posted Image

archive Post Dec 30 2008, 03:42 PM
link
Translated info [ source http://udn.com/NEWS/...1/4667095.shtml (removed) ]
Evergreen Marine Corp CEO Dr Chang in a press interview expressed his view:
“To speculate the economy conditions, you check the container shipping volume first. With good shipping volume, you have good economy conditions. The second half of 2009 will be terrible, as gloomy as 1930. Economy will recover in the second half of 2011 and enter better conditions in 2012. Evergreen perceived this downturn, we did not build any new container ship, and prepared for the worst cases in advance. So far in the second half of 2008, for USA-China route, we outperform the largest container shipping conglomerate MAERSK. Evergreen will issue two months bonus, I expect next year Evergreen will still be profitable but worse than this year.“

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine to build 100 container ships

Asia-Pacific News
Jan 6, 2009, 1:22 GMT
Chang expects the global slump to bottom out in the latter half of 2011 and recovery to begin in 2012.
link

EVERGREEN PLANS TO ORDER 100 SHIPS
19.10.2009
link
As the global financial crisis is coming to an end, Chang said, Evergreen plans to order 100 container ships in 2010. 
"Doing the shipping business is not running a grocery store. You have to have vision," he said
Chang predicted in 2007 that a general economic recovery would not begin until 2012, so Evergreen had not invested in new ships in the past two years. 
Chang, 81, said that in 2008, a French shipping company tycoon invited him jointly to build a 15,000-TEU container ship.
Chang turned down the offer because he knew the time was not right. But now the time had come to expand the fleet.

#13 stanley

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Posted 21 October 2009 - 01:46 PM

What happened to the third (of five) passage of the Saturn-Uranus opposition on September 15?

(from post #1)
---------------
The Saturn-Uranus opposition – 5 alignments in 2008-2010.
(1) 11/04/08 (11/21/08, lagging, low 741.02)
(2) 02/05/09 (03/06/09, lagging, low 666.79)
(3) 09/15/09 (impetus to be observed)
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10
Posted Image
----------------

I am neither an astrologist nor an astrology narrator, here is a quoted commentary from Raymond Merriman, and He “described” what has happened...

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 19, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
http://www.mmacycles...tober-19,-2009/
[The biggest signature of all is the third (of five) passage of the Saturn-Uranus opposition on September 15...] In the first two passages, the DJIA fell close to 2000 points over the subsequent 3-4 weeks. However, in this third passage, the decline was only slightly less than 500 points, and it lasted all of 7 trading days. It is interesting to note that in this new century, every third year has failed to produce the dreaded “October surprise” to the downside, despite the presence of some rather serious geocosmic signatures that suggested it would. In each case so far, the rally continued into February before a significant decline commenced into March.
You may trace the back issues see how Raymond Merriman narrated the events
weekly archive: http://www.mmacycles...s-for-the-week/

Fair use - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_use

OCTOBER 2009 FORECAST
© 2009 by Richard Nolle
last revised SEP 30, 2009
http://www.astropro.com/homeIE45.html [click FUTURES, slect the month you want to view, click GO]
The Saturn-Uranus opposition is another hold-over from last month, remaining within a few degrees of its September 15 exact alignment all the way into mid-October: social and economic instability are still a major theme this month. .... I’ve already described this alignment’s historic connection with socio-economic instability and influenza epidemics. I’m a bit puzzled at how mild the response to the September 15 exact opposition of these two planets has been, in terms of major financial markets around the world. True, it’s quite possible that the downturn has begun and we just haven’t recognized it as such yet. ......... The thing to remember is that the current Saturn-Uranus opposition remains within a few degrees of exact until about mid-October, and then makes two final passes in 2010. Also, look back at the 1918-1920 swine flu epidemic: same Saturn-Uranus opposition then, same Mars Maximum too. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we’re still in the early phase.

Background information:

The Saturn-Uranus Opposition Series
Published: 28th January 2008
http://www.astrology...turnuranus.html
This article provides technical and thematic information about the series of Saturn-Uranus oppositions that are taking place this year and over the next few years. It gives you all the dates, Signs, degrees, and chart wheels, and interpretations too.

Additional information:

Uranus-Pluto Squares: 2008 to 2019
Published: 30th November 2008
http://www.astrology...ranuspluto.html
This article provides technical and thematic information about the series of Uranus-Pluto squares that are taking place from 2008 throughout the next decade up until 2019. It gives you all the dates, Signs, degrees, chart wheels, and thematic interpretations.

#14 stanley

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Posted 21 October 2009 - 02:33 PM

while (some of the) bears curse the Dollar, Bulls stare at ECRI index

Updated: 10/16/2009 10:35 AM
link
The smoothed, annualized growth rate rose to 27.9% from a revised 27.4% (previously 26.1%). Though the index declined in the last week, it has generally been on the rise recently, indicative of recovery persisting into next year.
please refer to this chart

#15 stanley

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 12:25 AM

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM
“If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158,
There is some tough work for both bulls/bears in the range 1083-1132.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

when index dives below 1083 decisively, the local frame [869:1001] can be applied. The minor FIB point in this local frame is 1075, major FIB point 1046 and 1012.

support: 1074/1075 1066, 1048/1052 ....

The significance of 1034-1066:

Sep 28 2009, 11:53 AM
1065.55= [0.618||1080.15 ::1041.17]
1066.86 = [0.500|| 1001.1::1132.7]
link

Aug 22 2009, 01:37 PM
Synopsis:
(1) major resistance 1034-1065
link

Aug 16 2009, 12:15 PM
Discussions:
(3) The debate is whether primary wave B, major wave c will terminate around 1100-1199, if truncation takes place on major c near 1046-1065 (or (1018-1034)), that is very bearish.
link

spx15mins.JPG

#16 stanley

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 06:49 PM

hi Stanley,

A little Gann?

Connect the major highs or lows from 2007 and 2008 to forward dates. Use 360 Calendar days (good to +/- 5 days IMO).

Examples:

3/14/2007 - 3/17/2008 (low to low)

1/22/2008 - 1/21/2009 (low to low or high)

3/17/2008 - 3/06/2009 (low to low)

7/15/2009 - 7/08/2009 (low to low)

Next dates? There are a few of them.

10/10/2008 - 9/10/2009 (+/-) - (low to high?)

Oh and let's not forget the all-time high 11/10/2007.

10/28/2008

11/04/2008

11/21/2008

and so on.

Hurst 40 week low dead ahead. Price should revisit the 20 month MA minimum.

cheers,

john

Hello John,

I speculate that 40-week low could be a secondary event. There is some good built-up around the 980-1000 range, strong barriers in 880-920. The immediate support is around 1050. To be bearish, bears need to taking out the 1K mark. However, you can see there are not much nested zones in between 1100-1200; therefore, 1150 may well be bulls’ next assault target; The time ratio for the Upper one is 0.406, just in the numerical margin of 0.404. The Lower one indicates a possibility to reach 0.5 (Nov 13 +/-). In essence, if the index can dive below 1K (1000-1014) before that date, we probably will get the trend reversal early confirmation. In the mean time, let us see if there is any strong catalyst can etching out those barrier quickly. [0.404+0.382=0.786]

Happy times ahead

Stanley


SPY volume by price
(Remember, these are very subjective measures)
pbv.JPG

SPX Fibonacci time ratio
ratio.JPG

#17 stanley

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Posted 23 October 2009 - 03:54 PM

------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 21 2009, 09:25 PM
When index dives below 1083 decisively, the local frame [869:1101] can be applied. The minor FIB point in this local frame is 1075, major FIB point 1046 and 1012.
Supports: 1074/1075 1066, 1048/1052 ....
-------------------------------------------------------------

How long those can Bulls hold up the minor support 1074/1075?
-- First attempt 22-Oct-09 1,074.31
-- Second attempt 22-Oct-09 1,075.49
Short term RSI show some divergence, see if it will propagate to longer term [refer to the chart]

The last two Saturn-Uranus opposition alignments [2008-2010] falls in between two important Bradley turn dates, 03/01/10, and 08/10/10. Refer to The 2010 Bradley Siderograph in this Free Amanita Newsletter - http://www.amanita.a...ewsletter-e.pdf

The Saturn-Uranus opposition – 5 alignments in 2008-2010.
(1) 11/04/08 (11/21/08, lagging, low 741.02)
(2) 02/05/09 (03/06/09, lagging, low 666.79)
(3) 09/15/09 (insignificant @ at this writing)
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10

SPX1023.JPG

#18 SilentOne

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Posted 23 October 2009 - 08:15 PM

hi Stanley, I saw these Bradley charts the other day. The source is Amanita's annual forecast (2009). I'm not an astrologer, but what do you see in these charts? Next year figures something big. What is out there that will cause the biggest signatures since the 1930s and 1870s? That last Saturn-Uranus opposition is in play I would imagine. We just had one in Sept., the third of five in this series. The next one arrives in July next year as you have shown. The next 18 month Hurst cycle low comes in about August 2010. It shows an interesting alignment with my Hurst cycle stuff. Have a nice weekend. cheers, john Bradley_Long_Term.png Bradley_2010_What_s_coming.png

Edited by SilentOne, 23 October 2009 - 08:22 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#19 stanley

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Posted 24 October 2009 - 05:45 PM

hi Stanley,

I saw these Bradley charts the other day. The source is Amanita's annual forecast (2009). I'm not an astrologer, but what do you see in these charts? Next year figures something big. What is out there that will cause the biggest signatures since the 1930s and 1870s? That last Saturn-Uranus opposition is in play I would imagine. We just had one in Sept., the third of five in this series. The next one arrives in July next year as you have shown. The next 18 month Hurst cycle low comes in about August 2010. It shows an interesting alignment with my Hurst cycle stuff.

Have a nice weekend.

cheers,

john

http://traders-talk....-1256346700.png
http://traders-talk....-1256346733.png


Hello John
Me too, I am neither an astrologer nor an astrology narrator, When comes to speculation, I bear neutral stance on these astro events. From what I have read, there are negative planetary aspects in 2010, June 5/6, July 30/31, August 6/7. December 13 Link, in particular, the Grand Cross on August 6/7.

Part (I) The Quest for PI based multiples

US Stock Market "monumental" dates:

* Black Monday, October 19, 1987
* Millennium Internet peak (SPX), March 24, 2000
* First 4 year cycle low since millennium, October 10, 2002
* The apex of Great Reflation, October 11, 2007
* The first Trough since the Great Reflation, March 6, 2009

The trading days in between these monumental dates can be obtained by downloading the Yahoo historical into a spreadsheet [ http://finance.yahoo...om/q/hp?s=^GSPC ]

By converting the trading days into PI based multiples, a set of whopping numbers pop off!
For example, there are 3144 trading days from Black Monday to millennium Internet peak (SPX), equals 1000 * PI [ 3.14159265... ]
pi.JPG

These PI based multiples are within the numerical margin of the following Fibonacci numbers
1 2 3 5 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597 2584 4181 6765 .......

There are 1259 trading days (400 * PI) from 4 year cycle low date (10/10/2002) to the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/2007). Half of 1259 is 629, adds it to 1259 equals 1888, equals 600 * PI

629 trading days (200 * PI) from the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/07) maps to April 13, 2010 ( I may miss a few days due to holidays)

There are 112 trading days from the Millennium Internet peak (SPX 03/24/2000) to the reaction high in September 1, 2000, From that day, market headed to the 4 year cycle low, October 10, 2002. 112 is in the range of the 109 trading day cycle. So, adds 109/100 trading days to April 13, 2010, it maps to September 17, 2010
Millennium.JPG

Discussions:
Long PI based multiples seems having some magic. When comes to astro expenditures, as mentioned by Richard Nolle: don’t expect an event will occur on the exact Astro aspect date.

( a ) The Saturn-Uranus opposition – 5 alignments in 2008-2010.
(1) 11/04/08 (11/21/08, lagging, low 741.02)
(2) 02/05/09 (03/06/09, lagging, low 666.79)
(3) 09/15/09 (insignificant @ at this writing)
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10

( b ) Bradley turn dates - Important: 03/01/10, 08/10/10, secondary 09/11/10, 09/30/10.



Question: “What is out there that will cause the biggest signatures since the 1930s and 1870s?”
Part (II) The Grand Cross and An Alignment for Our Times

A1.JPG
The particular setting (Declination off, Medium terms Off. Long term On, W=5) applied by the above chart may focus on extracting and highlighting the long-term planets effect. (see info Insert)

Info Insert:
Constructing The Siderograph - http://gamma.dhs.org...es/bradley.html
S = W ( L + D ) + M
Where: M is the sum of the (m)edium terms, L is the sum of the (l)ong terms, D is the average of the sum of the (d)eclinations, and W is a factor used to add extra (w)eight to the long-term planets (Bradley suggests W=4).”

The Grand Cross
on August 6 of seven planets as Venus joins the alignment, and the Moon moves into Cancer

quoted info: - source http://en.wikipedia....oss_(astrology)
“In astrology, a grand cross is said to occur when four planets are all separated from each other by square aspects (90 degrees apart). A grand cross can also be viewed as two oppositions (180 degrees apart) separated from each other by a square. In a grand cross, there is one planet in each astrological element (fire, earth, air and water) but all the planets are in signs of the same modality or quality.”
“This aspect resembles another grand cross that occurred during the 1930s “
“One particular example of a cardinal grand cross will occur in summer 2010 when Pluto, Uranus and Jupiter and Saturn and Mars will be at 0-3º Capricorn, Aries and Libra, respectively, while inner planets transit at 0-3º Cancer.”


quoted info – source http://www.hermes3.net/2010.htm
“The Crosses of Summer, 2010 There are two powerfully transformative planetary alignments in the summer of 2010. A T-Cross on July 30, in the fiery dog days, of six planets -- the Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Pluto -- all forming a very "difficult" and "stressful" set of 90° squares and 180° oppositions in the cardinal signs of Aries, Libra and Capricorn. A Grand Cross on August 6 of seven planets as Venus joins the alignment, and the Moon moves into Cancer”
The Grand Cross chart: http://www.hermes3.n...ndCross2010.jpg
(To respect the Copy Right, hot link disbaled)

To aid reading the above chart, I have complied an astro symbol chart
Lunar node: Posted Image
astro_syymbols.JPG

quoted info: source http://www.users.glo...wood/agenda.htm
“August 6-7, 2010: A cardinal grand cross is formed, involving Jupiter-Uranus in Aries, Pluto in Capricorn, the Moon in early Cancer, and Venus joining Mars and Saturn in early Libra. The Sun at 15° Leo makes stressful aspects (45°/135°) to the entire grand cross.”

An Alignment for Our Times:
The Saturn, Pluto, Uranus Alignment of 2010
by Bill Streett 1/13/04
http://www.astrology...0alignment.html

Discussions:
I think, in retrospect, if double dip or a renewed slump does transpire in 2010, it certainly correlates with the negative astro aspects.

Feldstein Sees Renewed U.S. Slump After ‘Improvement’
http://www.fundmaste...recovery-ahead/
Feldstein suggested the economy will contract into next year, and that the pattern of economic turnaround will be more of a seesaw than what he called “a beautiful symmetrical W.”

All quoted infos: abide Fair use, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_use

#20 stanley

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Posted 26 October 2009 - 02:32 PM

-------------------------------------------
Oct 23 2009, 12:54 PM
How long can those Bulls hold up the minor support 1074/1075?
-------------------------------------------

Bears paw down the minor support 1074/1075, intraday low 1065.39 @this writing

supports 1066, 1048/1052, 1034, 1012.

1053.5 [0.5||1440:667]
http://indexcalls.co...75170_thumb.jpg
1046.2[0.236||1101:869]

refer to Post #15 for the significance of 1034-1066

near term critical zone 1048-1052

early trend reversal confirmation 1000-1014, with margin down to 990