108 replies to this topic

[dharma]

Scoreboard year-to-date in percentages -- Agricultural Cattle (lb)....................+12.0% Coffee (lb)...................+36.9% Corn (bu).....................+37.3% Cotton (lb)...................+46.7% Lumber(1000 bd.ft.)....+32.9% Orange Juice (lb)..........+19.7% Soy beans (bu)..............+13.2% Wheat (bu)....................+29.8% take note! dharma

[dharma]

dustin off my buy hat, hourly divergences in xau/hui and i see what miners are in that boat and i buy maybe not today, but we will see what the market offers. will bring it back to 10% cash dharma

[dharma]

hourly divergences in hui from oversold 10% cash and this is where i will sit if and until a better buying opportunity develops. we are not down much from the highs . a fib $34 for gold. 508-512 i have as a gann and fib buy zone. but, these are not like the july lows , which created alot of fear and though it was only -100 for gold, it got folks thinking about 08. i see there are lots of newbies chomping @the bit to enter the gold market. the ones i know havent jumped yet. what # gets them to jump. although seasonally we are in the strong time of year, from now to the end of november is weak. i posted the seasonal chart some days ago. unless a darling gets trashed , this is where i will sit for now. i see gold has turned + for the day. typical action for runs corrections are short in time. not sure if this one is over, however. if you havent looked @stubabys thread, his work is always worth a look. dharma

[dharma]

my sense is 1400 beckons the market. @above the round # the nervous public, who have been waiting to buy will take the leap, and not long after ward will be shown the wood shed.
the game is no longer subtle , it is obvious we are in for competitive currency devaluation. along w/flat out currency devaluation. the fed has stated its intentions. they want to create asset inflation. they are going to screw things up. but, its what politicians are famous for. they cant control their own lives , but yours and mine they know just how we should live.
anyway. its tough sledding in here. gold remains firm and corrections are short in time. gold coughs. the miners get pneumonia. if you think the miners are ready to run w/o the metal. think again. they are not the lead dog , the metal is. today should give clear identification of that fact. what i saw last time is the miners ran only when the thought was secure that the metal was going higher. and when the metal topped, the miners made outlandish profits and went up another 30-40% 9-10 months after the metals topped. if you are in the miners , patience is beyond a virtue. its a necessity. you will be rewarded , but later in the game.
its risky in here. if a miner gets taken behind the woodshed i will greet him there. otherwise. i am using discipline. i want to put the cash to work. but, it is a very tough call.
dharma
bob hoye is considered by some to be an excellent technician. but the piece he includes from art cashin is definitely worth the read
http://www.321gold.c.../hoye101610.pdf

Edited by dharma, 18 October 2010 - 03:04 PM.

[dharma]

this last leg, which appears to have ended on the 14th, seems like it is over. we have crashed through gann angles on my hourly charts. on the dailys they come in @the 486 hui area, over sold on the hourlies. so , now i wait for the buy. the turn is well w/in the orb of venus retrograde. this run was very instructive, there were multiple corrections all short in time and varying degrees of price take downs. the july lows were a mini of what is to come. folks got out early and some folks shorted into it. do your own work. everyone loses their way from time to time. the difference is the pros right their ship quickly. and have learned to listen to the market. so if everyone has moments of losing their way, its no different from you and me. so, you might as well listen to yourself, @least you have the opportunity to learn from your mistakes. if you dont know his thought, then the only thing you can learn is not to listen to him!!!! patience here, let the market sort itself out. i got my buy hat out. but not putting it on yet. the bull wants to have as few riding on his back as possible. these corrections cant let you lose sight of the major trend. if this is a major correction, which if not now , then soon. near 1k can and will be tested. i will go w/my strategy of either buying hourly divergences or if it is larger i will wait for daily oversold divergences. but, i have cash and i want to deploy it. i try and keep a macro view. otherwise the winds are blowing one way or another. i dont get too high or too low. this thing has years to go and i dont want to destroy my nervous system in the process of making a buck. the fed wants a lower dollar. they want a little inflation. i dont intend to fight them. they will get more than they bargained for. the debt is an anchor around the country and for that matter the western worlds neck. as historically been the case, the sovereigns will not pay! dharma, if they do that, how will they sell another bond. easy, the politicians will come w/hat in hand , and this time they will not spend money they dont have, honest we have learned. and then in time it will start all over again. its why as a trader it takes 20 -30 years for most to be worth their salt. they have to trade a complete cycle. there are a few , very few , who get it more quickly. dharma

[stubaby]

this last leg, which appears to have ended on the 14th, seems like it is over. we have crashed through gann angles on my hourly charts. on the dailys they come in @the 486 hui area, over sold on the hourlies. so , now i wait for the buy.
the turn is well w/in the orb of venus retrograde. this run was very instructive, there were multiple corrections all short in time and varying degrees of price take downs. the july lows were a mini of what is to come. folks got out early and some folks shorted into it. do your own work. everyone loses their way from time to time. the difference is the pros right their ship quickly. and have learned to listen to the market. so if everyone has moments of losing their way, its no different from you and me. so, you might as well listen to yourself, @least you have the opportunity to learn from your mistakes. if you dont know his thought, then the only thing you can learn is not to listen to him!!!!
patience here, let the market sort itself out. i got my buy hat out. but not putting it on yet. the bull wants to have as few riding on his back as possible. these corrections cant let you lose sight of the major trend. if this is a major correction, which if not now , then soon. near 1k can and will be tested. i will go w/my strategy of either buying hourly divergences or if it is larger i will wait for daily oversold divergences. but, i have cash and i want to deploy it.
i try and keep a macro view. otherwise the winds are blowing one way or another. i dont get too high or too low. this thing has years to go and i dont want to destroy my nervous system in the process of making a buck. the fed wants a lower dollar. they want a little inflation. i dont intend to fight them. they will get more than they bargained for. the debt is an anchor around the country and for that matter the western worlds neck. as historically been the case, the sovereigns will not pay! dharma, if they do that, how will they sell another bond. easy, the politicians will come w/hat in hand , and this time they will not spend money they dont have, honest we have learned. and then in time it will start all over again. its why as a trader it takes 20 -30 years for most to be worth their salt. they have to trade a complete cycle. there are a few , very few , who get it more quickly.
dharma

dharma:

Thanks for your words and thoughts! I always learn something!

For me personally, I love corrections - and I always watch and wait - looking for those resisting the downdraft and exhibiting "relative strength" - noticing those that where extremely overbought pull back to long-term trendlines and hold. I always watch what I own, but really broaden my horizons during these periods searching for pehaps some new leaders emerging. Corrections are as important to bull markets as are impulse waves higher in my book!



stubaby

[dharma]

this last leg, which appears to have ended on the 14th, seems like it is over. we have crashed through gann angles on my hourly charts. on the dailys they come in @the 486 hui area, over sold on the hourlies. so , now i wait for the buy.
the turn is well w/in the orb of venus retrograde. this run was very instructive, there were multiple corrections all short in time and varying degrees of price take downs. the july lows were a mini of what is to come. folks got out early and some folks shorted into it. do your own work. everyone loses their way from time to time. the difference is the pros right their ship quickly. and have learned to listen to the market. so if everyone has moments of losing their way, its no different from you and me. so, you might as well listen to yourself, @least you have the opportunity to learn from your mistakes. if you dont know his thought, then the only thing you can learn is not to listen to him!!!!
patience here, let the market sort itself out. i got my buy hat out. but not putting it on yet. the bull wants to have as few riding on his back as possible. these corrections cant let you lose sight of the major trend. if this is a major correction, which if not now , then soon. near 1k can and will be tested. i will go w/my strategy of either buying hourly divergences or if it is larger i will wait for daily oversold divergences. but, i have cash and i want to deploy it.
i try and keep a macro view. otherwise the winds are blowing one way or another. i dont get too high or too low. this thing has years to go and i dont want to destroy my nervous system in the process of making a buck. the fed wants a lower dollar. they want a little inflation. i dont intend to fight them. they will get more than they bargained for. the debt is an anchor around the country and for that matter the western worlds neck. as historically been the case, the sovereigns will not pay! dharma, if they do that, how will they sell another bond. easy, the politicians will come w/hat in hand , and this time they will not spend money they dont have, honest we have learned. and then in time it will start all over again. its why as a trader it takes 20 -30 years for most to be worth their salt. they have to trade a complete cycle. there are a few , very few , who get it more quickly.
dharma

dharma:

Thanks for your words and thoughts! I always learn something!

For me personally, I love corrections - and I always watch and wait - looking for those resisting the downdraft and exhibiting "relative strength" - noticing those that where extremely overbought pull back to long-term trendlines and hold. I always watch what I own, but really broaden my horizons during these periods searching for pehaps some new leaders emerging. Corrections are as important to bull markets as are impulse waves higher in my book!



stubaby

that's what i mean by its all part of the process. corrections replenish and revive the bull.
thanks for the kind words. i watch the 200 ma 89ma, 55, 34, etc i watch fib retracements in addition . and of course i watch the wilder 9bar rsi.
the most profitable part of the bull lies ahead. rampant speculation. those who traded the nasdaq in 99-00 saw it 1st hand
stocks that never made a nickel were selling beyond valuations, and they never made a red nickel!
what do you value gold in the ground?
do your own work . most will lead you astray. few have a clue! i am a tick on the bulls back!

dharma

Edited by dharma, 19 October 2010 - 11:14 AM.

[dougie]

it appears for the moment that the bond vigilantes reined things in

[dougie]

the selling could also be over of course
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI...amp;a=211489672

[stubaby]

the selling could also be over of course
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI...amp;a=211489672

Dougie:

Short-term damage done with that "big red candle" - expect a short bounce 2-3 days and then down towards 50% FIB to complete - bounce should be respectable in size in order for C Wave to knock out the final weak holders. Let's see who those "relative strength" leaders are on the downsize - watching and watching.

stubaby