40 replies to this topic

[Slothrop]

Z, the problem with singularity-thinking is that it assumes that "faster" is always better. It might be that evolutionary derived human qualities such as patience and contemplation outlast the Watsons of the world.

[zoropb]

Z, the problem with singularity-thinking is that it assumes that "faster" is always better. It might be that evolutionary derived human qualities such as patience and contemplation outlast the Watsons of the world.

S. I am not saying it is better or worse just that is where we are headed. Given the choice many people will want the change if they can afford it and they will be super human compared to our present state. How will those that do not have their ability compete? Nature has always been survival of the fittest and the rest become extinct in time. We are creating our own end and change into a different being. Hey S. they may have patience and contemplation in the chip by then too.

[salsabob]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Yep I agree SB robots in all manner of uses going to change the whole game from now until about 2034 then It gets very interesting as the entire game changes again. The division between the have and have nots will be eclipse by those that can afford the "singularity" (merger of man to machine a new jump in evolution). The nots will be like ants to those that can. All that we think is important now will be useless including food at one point. There is about a 25-40 year window here. Think about what I said as I have for a while and your likely to come to the same logical conclusion... we as humans in our present form will be obsolete once this takes place. How can you or anyone compete against a being with the library of congress in his head working problems in pico seconds or faster. Sprint for an hour at full speed and not break a sweat or stay underwater for 5 hours at a time or more. Lift a car no problem. Live anywhere pretty much including Mars. Powered by a personal power source not food. Dylan's song comes to mind the times they are changing. Evolve or be an Ant in that world.

Possible. But long before we get there, we will have to deal with automation taking away jobs (and robotics is just a small piece of that - just ask all the newly-minted lawyers and accountants that can't find jobs due to expert software providing their services). Most people think you need an R2D2 or some complete takeover of a job to have significant impact on a career sector. Most of what most lawyers and accountants do is in the back room comparing items to standards - perfect routine for a 10-year old computer and child's play for the CPU coming next. You eliminate the 70-80% backroom jobs and the wage pressure on the remaining front room is enormous.
People are concern about all the information collected on their personal lives. That is nothing compared to the amount of information collected by most enterprises today. That data can be collated and analyzed by emerging expert software that is going to displace a lot people from their cubes in the next few years; those that remain are going to be under substantial wage pressures.

Wages have been stagnant for 30 years; under-employment as well. All disguised as off-shoring of jobs which so happen are exactly the jobs that are currently the most easiest to automated. If China/India don't rapidly automate, we will, and overcome their dwindling labor advantage with our transport and energy advantages.

There's no way to stop this even if you wanted to, but it will completely undermine our most basic, if not cherished, assumptions and values. It's already happening but at a relatively very small degree and just that amount is already completely freaking everyone out, people going for each other throats, and most don't have a whiff of a clue of what is really going on – we not only have the wrong tools, but the wrong ideologies and perhaps even values. It sounds like a capitalist wet dream - production without labor costs, but that is due to the nearly sole focus on supply and assumption that demand will not only always be there but that it is insatiable.

Even after China folds, it will take time to recognize the falllacy.

If anyone thinks this isn't going to get away from us just remember the recent "flash crash" was due to automation. Also, there is no way the securitization and derivativization of mortgages at the heart of the 2008 meltdown could have happen without the automated computational force behind it. Anyone have any faith in any human institution in the world of dealing with what is unfolding?

Now let’s all return to our screens and repeat after me – deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem…., …., ….

[dasein]

maybe the most cherished assumption then, is that you have to work to have a living, maybe that is where there will be a change - we suggested this was the change coming in the 60's, that with automation no one will have to work more than 4 hours per day - and what will people do with all that leisure time? it was and is true, we really dont have to work more than 4, or even 2 hours per day with all the productivity we have gained - but the benefits of productivity have not been distributed to all, certainly not to the workers, but only to the few - and not really to the owners of capital either - to the management entrusted with the owners capital and to the politicians entrusted with the welfare of the people, but not to the shareholders and not tothe people - so maybe that will change too? I am just proposing an alternative - since you are saying the basics are going to change. You havent been talking about these two things, which seem the most basic to me.

[zoropb]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Yep I agree SB robots in all manner of uses going to change the whole game from now until about 2034 then It gets very interesting as the entire game changes again. The division between the have and have nots will be eclipse by those that can afford the "singularity" (merger of man to machine a new jump in evolution). The nots will be like ants to those that can. All that we think is important now will be useless including food at one point. There is about a 25-40 year window here. Think about what I said as I have for a while and your likely to come to the same logical conclusion... we as humans in our present form will be obsolete once this takes place. How can you or anyone compete against a being with the library of congress in his head working problems in pico seconds or faster. Sprint for an hour at full speed and not break a sweat or stay underwater for 5 hours at a time or more. Lift a car no problem. Live anywhere pretty much including Mars. Powered by a personal power source not food. Dylan's song comes to mind the times they are changing. Evolve or be an Ant in that world.

Possible. But long before we get there, we will have to deal with automation taking away jobs (and robotics is just a small piece of that - just ask all the newly-minted lawyers and accountants that can't find jobs due to expert software providing their services). Most people think you need an R2D2 or some complete takeover of a job to have significant impact on a career sector. Most of what most lawyers and accountants do is in the back room comparing items to standards - perfect routine for a 10-year old computer and child's play for the CPU coming next. You eliminate the 70-80% backroom jobs and the wage pressure on the remaining front room is enormous.
People are concern about all the information collected on their personal lives. That is nothing compared to the amount of information collected by most enterprises today. That data can be collated and analyzed by emerging expert software that is going to displace a lot people from their cubes in the next few years; those that remain are going to be under substantial wage pressures.

Wages have been stagnant for 30 years; under-employment as well. All disguised as off-shoring of jobs which so happen are exactly the jobs that are currently the most easiest to automated. If China/India don't rapidly automate, we will, and overcome their dwindling labor advantage with our transport and energy advantages.

There's no way to stop this even if you wanted to, but it will completely undermine our most basic, if not cherished, assumptions and values. It's already happening but at a relatively very small degree and just that amount is already completely freaking everyone out, people going for each other throats, and most don't have a whiff of a clue of what is really going on – we not only have the wrong tools, but the wrong ideologies and perhaps even values. It sounds like a capitalist wet dream - production without labor costs, but that is due to the nearly sole focus on supply and assumption that demand will not only always be there but that it is insatiable.

Even after China folds, it will take time to recognize the falllacy.

If anyone thinks this isn't going to get away from us just remember the recent "flash crash" was due to automation. Also, there is no way the securitization and derivativization of mortgages at the heart of the 2008 meltdown could have happen without the automated computational force behind it. Anyone have any faith in any human institution in the world of dealing with what is unfolding?

Now let’s all return to our screens and repeat after me – deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem…., …., ….

Totally agree with your post SB and enjoyed your thoughts as I share many. What I meant by robot is any automation that replaces what a human use to do. The biggest problem in the world now is exploding population. Growth is now a bad thing. As I mentioned in a previous post the division of have and have nots is going to grow exponentially into a liklely not pleasant outcome.

[salsabob]

Z, the problem with singularity-thinking is that it assumes that "faster" is always better. It might be that evolutionary derived human qualities such as patience and contemplation outlast the Watsons of the world.

Mothers generally work for free.


How many jobs where patience and contemplation are the sole process of the job? Again, automation does not have to take over an entire job and certainly doesn't have to have human attirbutes in order to make a substantial dent in an occupational sector job numbers or wage scale.

For example, several major hospitals have installed robots to deliver medicines and food throughout the building. This greatly frees up time of nurses who are very supportive of the automation for it gives them more "face time" to provide that human touch to their patients.

Let's see how hospital adminstrators look at it. I reduced your job by 20-30%. Hmm, how much more face time do those patients really need? Maybe I could do without a nurse or two on a shift or two?

http://singularityhu...ing-new-robots/

And teachers -

http://news.cnet.com...20026714-1.html

- reduce the need for K-6 grade teachers and see what that does to wages up the scale all the way into post-secondary.

What is your ratio of use of ATM or customer checkout to a patience bank teller or cashier? What direction has been your trend?

Where did those people go? Flipping hamburgers? How long do you think that will last before further automation nearly eliminates most humans in your McDonalds, Taco Bell, KFC? In a highly competitive, cost-cutting environment, it is only a question of who will go first.

Edited by salsabob, 14 April 2011 - 04:07 PM.

[salsabob]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Yep I agree SB robots in all manner of uses going to change the whole game from now until about 2034 then It gets very interesting as the entire game changes again. The division between the have and have nots will be eclipse by those that can afford the "singularity" (merger of man to machine a new jump in evolution). The nots will be like ants to those that can. All that we think is important now will be useless including food at one point. There is about a 25-40 year window here. Think about what I said as I have for a while and your likely to come to the same logical conclusion... we as humans in our present form will be obsolete once this takes place. How can you or anyone compete against a being with the library of congress in his head working problems in pico seconds or faster. Sprint for an hour at full speed and not break a sweat or stay underwater for 5 hours at a time or more. Lift a car no problem. Live anywhere pretty much including Mars. Powered by a personal power source not food. Dylan's song comes to mind the times they are changing. Evolve or be an Ant in that world.

Possible. But long before we get there, we will have to deal with automation taking away jobs (and robotics is just a small piece of that - just ask all the newly-minted lawyers and accountants that can't find jobs due to expert software providing their services). Most people think you need an R2D2 or some complete takeover of a job to have significant impact on a career sector. Most of what most lawyers and accountants do is in the back room comparing items to standards - perfect routine for a 10-year old computer and child's play for the CPU coming next. You eliminate the 70-80% backroom jobs and the wage pressure on the remaining front room is enormous.
People are concern about all the information collected on their personal lives. That is nothing compared to the amount of information collected by most enterprises today. That data can be collated and analyzed by emerging expert software that is going to displace a lot people from their cubes in the next few years; those that remain are going to be under substantial wage pressures.

Wages have been stagnant for 30 years; under-employment as well. All disguised as off-shoring of jobs which so happen are exactly the jobs that are currently the most easiest to automated. If China/India don't rapidly automate, we will, and overcome their dwindling labor advantage with our transport and energy advantages.

There's no way to stop this even if you wanted to, but it will completely undermine our most basic, if not cherished, assumptions and values. It's already happening but at a relatively very small degree and just that amount is already completely freaking everyone out, people going for each other throats, and most don't have a whiff of a clue of what is really going on – we not only have the wrong tools, but the wrong ideologies and perhaps even values. It sounds like a capitalist wet dream - production without labor costs, but that is due to the nearly sole focus on supply and assumption that demand will not only always be there but that it is insatiable.

Even after China folds, it will take time to recognize the falllacy.

If anyone thinks this isn't going to get away from us just remember the recent "flash crash" was due to automation. Also, there is no way the securitization and derivativization of mortgages at the heart of the 2008 meltdown could have happen without the automated computational force behind it. Anyone have any faith in any human institution in the world of dealing with what is unfolding?

Now let’s all return to our screens and repeat after me – deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem…., …., ….

Totally agree with your post SB and enjoyed your thoughts as I share many. What I meant by robot is any automation that replaces what a human use to do. The biggest problem in the world now is exploding population. Growth is now a bad thing. As I mentioned in a previous post the division of have and have nots is going to grow exponentially into a liklely not pleasant outcome.

Yes, I agree. Already happening.

At some point, however, the diminish demand will undermine the global economy and even the very rich won't be able to hid from it. That's when a solution might begin to be contemplated. My favorite is make everyone shareholders and keep them busy with TA and coming to FF for insights.

[zoropb]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Yep I agree SB robots in all manner of uses going to change the whole game from now until about 2034 then It gets very interesting as the entire game changes again. The division between the have and have nots will be eclipse by those that can afford the "singularity" (merger of man to machine a new jump in evolution). The nots will be like ants to those that can. All that we think is important now will be useless including food at one point. There is about a 25-40 year window here. Think about what I said as I have for a while and your likely to come to the same logical conclusion... we as humans in our present form will be obsolete once this takes place. How can you or anyone compete against a being with the library of congress in his head working problems in pico seconds or faster. Sprint for an hour at full speed and not break a sweat or stay underwater for 5 hours at a time or more. Lift a car no problem. Live anywhere pretty much including Mars. Powered by a personal power source not food. Dylan's song comes to mind the times they are changing. Evolve or be an Ant in that world.

Possible. But long before we get there, we will have to deal with automation taking away jobs (and robotics is just a small piece of that - just ask all the newly-minted lawyers and accountants that can't find jobs due to expert software providing their services). Most people think you need an R2D2 or some complete takeover of a job to have significant impact on a career sector. Most of what most lawyers and accountants do is in the back room comparing items to standards - perfect routine for a 10-year old computer and child's play for the CPU coming next. You eliminate the 70-80% backroom jobs and the wage pressure on the remaining front room is enormous.
People are concern about all the information collected on their personal lives. That is nothing compared to the amount of information collected by most enterprises today. That data can be collated and analyzed by emerging expert software that is going to displace a lot people from their cubes in the next few years; those that remain are going to be under substantial wage pressures.

Wages have been stagnant for 30 years; under-employment as well. All disguised as off-shoring of jobs which so happen are exactly the jobs that are currently the most easiest to automated. If China/India don't rapidly automate, we will, and overcome their dwindling labor advantage with our transport and energy advantages.

There's no way to stop this even if you wanted to, but it will completely undermine our most basic, if not cherished, assumptions and values. It's already happening but at a relatively very small degree and just that amount is already completely freaking everyone out, people going for each other throats, and most don't have a whiff of a clue of what is really going on – we not only have the wrong tools, but the wrong ideologies and perhaps even values. It sounds like a capitalist wet dream - production without labor costs, but that is due to the nearly sole focus on supply and assumption that demand will not only always be there but that it is insatiable.

Even after China folds, it will take time to recognize the falllacy.

If anyone thinks this isn't going to get away from us just remember the recent "flash crash" was due to automation. Also, there is no way the securitization and derivativization of mortgages at the heart of the 2008 meltdown could have happen without the automated computational force behind it. Anyone have any faith in any human institution in the world of dealing with what is unfolding?

Now let’s all return to our screens and repeat after me – deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem, deficits are the problem…., …., ….

Totally agree with your post SB and enjoyed your thoughts as I share many. What I meant by robot is any automation that replaces what a human use to do. The biggest problem in the world now is exploding population. Growth is now a bad thing. As I mentioned in a previous post the division of have and have nots is going to grow exponentially into a liklely not pleasant outcome.

Yes, I agree. Already happening.

At some point, however, the diminish demand will undermine the global economy and even the very rich won't be able to hid from it. That's when a solution might begin to be contemplated. My favorite is make everyone shareholders and keep them busy with TA and coming to FF for insights.

There ya go!

[salsabob]

Just to note - Google employs about 24,000 people, Facebook about 2000, and Twitter 450. Anyone see a trend? Any guess how many people GM employed at its peak? And without getting too convoluted, can someone explain how this relates to the federal deficit?

[pdx5]

My motto is to learn from actual history. History teaches is what actually worked and what did not.
Why repeat the same mistakes and suffer the same consequences by ignoring history?

Right now I am looking at which countries are doing OK. Where unemployment has actually shrunk
in the last 2 years while ours is stagnant. So I found this gem:

How Unemployment was defeated

The crux of what they did is they implemented a free market reform agenda called "Agenda 2010" which
included tax cuts, unemployment benefits cuts and less strict labor regulations. Are we heading in that
direction? Or we will choose to ignore ACTUAL history?