40 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Doc- here's your chart, btw:

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66533434857&a=167856033&r=1361758208507.png

[securelstmile]

A consideration, Doc, fwiw. This ledge may, in its entirety turn out to be an inverted one-which would signal a last run to a higher high before any meaningfull correction (I'm not saying the small drop here is over, I don't beliueve it to be.) Some considerations that would support this take being the height of summation, the lack of damage to the 5 and 10 percent indicators relative to depth-and the way the volume MCO's show the selling hasn't got much steam. This would coincide with what "my stuff" is saying. Just a thought...

securelstmile-Your work is some of the best here-truly enjoyed your blog as well-much love and praise, from my corner!

Thanks spooky, I actually did this the other day for someone. The first decent 1-3% dip after a high nysi is attained 950 or so, is more often than not..a V.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYS...amp;a=293723563

[thespookyone]

A consideration, Doc, fwiw. This ledge may, in its entirety turn out to be an inverted one-which would signal a last run to a higher high before any meaningfull correction (I'm not saying the small drop here is over, I don't beliueve it to be.) Some considerations that would support this take being the height of summation, the lack of damage to the 5 and 10 percent indicators relative to depth-and the way the volume MCO's show the selling hasn't got much steam. This would coincide with what "my stuff" is saying. Just a thought...

securelstmile-Your work is some of the best here-truly enjoyed your blog as well-much love and praise, from my corner!

Thanks spooky, I actually did this the other day for someone. The first decent 1-3% dip after a high nysi is attained 950 or so, is more often than not..a V.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYS...amp;a=293723563

Nice take, thx. Always love to talk internals. I'm never one to look for things to be "different this time"-I've never found it to be a paying proposition. And, if we do indeed V out of it, it may well create the inverted ledge type structure I envision, twt.

[securelstmile]

A consideration, Doc, fwiw. This ledge may, in its entirety turn out to be an inverted one-which would signal a last run to a higher high before any meaningfull correction (I'm not saying the small drop here is over, I don't beliueve it to be.) Some considerations that would support this take being the height of summation, the lack of damage to the 5 and 10 percent indicators relative to depth-and the way the volume MCO's show the selling hasn't got much steam. This would coincide with what "my stuff" is saying. Just a thought...

securelstmile-Your work is some of the best here-truly enjoyed your blog as well-much love and praise, from my corner!

Thanks spooky, I actually did this the other day for someone. The first decent 1-3% dip after a high nysi is attained 950 or so, is more often than not..a V.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYS...amp;a=293723563

Nice take, thx. Always love to talk internals. I'm never one to look for things to be "different this time"-I've never found it to be a paying proposition. And, if we do indeed V out of it, it may well create the inverted ledge type structure I envision, twt.

Yes, I would also like to see more days where the tick starts high closes low. I am not as bullish as I was a few months ago but I am not willing to short either. I have a few things on the old check list that need to be crossed off. Thank you for your take!!! Much appreciated.

[Echo]

Check out analog to late April 2010 falling off the NSYI ledge.

Doc

Hi Echo, what does your Hurst cycle say these days? Similarity to April of 2010 is that the earth was hit by meteorites, is there anything else? Nevertheless we will crash soon or later, oh yeah , it could be just next week.

I have not talked much about Hurst cycles lately. The phasing the past couple years has been very difficult. Airedale was able to work through the difficulties with countless hours of intermarket and sector phasings that I just don't have the time for. Plus he was the master at it RIP. Silentone and I have struggled with it but it hasn't worked out as neatly as we had hoped. Even Arbs 70wk cycle gone usurped and now he's going with the 50wk.

I also think that the primary reason why cycles have been FUBAR lately is the enormous liquidity the world central banks have wildly thrown on the aftermath of the 2008-9 crash trying to soften the blow. Lets face it, we are in uncharted territories for liquidity injection far in excess of what we saw even with the Y2K non-event. When the Fed injects $85B a month kicking the can down the road, quite frankly, it kicks the cycles in the butt too. For example, the Oct 2011 low came way too early IMO from a Hurst point of view. Then the June 2012 low was fine, but the anticipated Jan-Feb 2013 low came when? Nov? Dec31? Still to come?

Bottom line, there is a time and a place for every tool and right now, IMHO, cyclical analysis is overwhelmed by a tsunami of world CB intervention with unheard of liquidity. There will come a time again when Hurst cycles will become more useful again. I will keep an eye on it.

Doc

[Echo]

I think a drop to 1470s is a possibility to test the break out neck line and reset the breadth oscillators.

So, I can definitely think of a deeper pull back next week, but find it less likely scenario, maybe more sideways...

I have roughly zero percent odds to decline below 1470s... Unless we get some extreme event... Of course...

You don't think the events of this week might qualify as an extreme event, lol?
The Italian vote or the sequester perhaps???
Doc

[q4wer]

Thank you Doc. I understand cycle work has been somewhat tough lately. Many many methods that I have been tracking have been frustrating actually. Best to your trading!

[Echo]

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc

Doesn't Hurst cycles call for a 40 week low in three to six weeks?

If you ignor all previous RECENT cycle length for the 10, 20, 40wk cycle and envision that after the June 2012 40wk low that the Nov 2012 low was a late late late late 20wk low (coming in at 23wks), then we could expect a 40wk low at the end of March, we are 14wks along so far...
As I said, I think the Hurst cycles are FUBAR for now...

Doc

ps FUBAR of course means: Following Under Bernanke And (the) Reserve.....

[Echo]

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc

Thanks Doc, 2010 is a possibility as is anything. I am always open to all the possibilities but I have other things that point to us not seeing a major decline until much later this year. My tick analysis shared on my blog is one but there are others as well. But the market is fluid and I never marry an analog and always have a few in the wings in case things change.

If this is 2010 by my look at trin and nymo this is last Wednesday. You can see we would still see a new high.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Thanks for your point of view. It is always valuable to me.

My pleasure and appreciate your point of view too.

Two reasons why we March 2012 might not fit right here now.
One, AAPL was going bonkers then and kept it up till early April, but it is not now.
Two, The NYSI had climbed to 1300, a bit more strength than the 1000+ we got this time. Plus you got a big ledge this time and it looks like we are falling off...


Anyway, food for thought.

[Echo]

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc

Thanks Doc, 2010 is a possibility as is anything. I am always open to all the possibilities but I have other things that point to us not seeing a major decline until much later this year. My tick analysis shared on my blog is one but there are others as well. But the market is fluid and I never marry an analog and always have a few in the wings in case things change.

If this is 2010 by my look at trin and nymo this is last Wednesday. You can see we would still see a new high.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Thanks for your point of view. It is always valuable to me.

One more look with 21 ema tick.

Note that 2010 tick also rocketed higher but fell off way before the flash crash.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Present day, we haven't seen that yet.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Excellent observation. Also the cum NYAD had a close encounter of the third kind with its 19e on Thursday and bounced instead of slicing through. SC messed up my bullseye, but there it is back in 2010.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...&listNum=12

That is why caution is increased if that breaks along with the 21e on SPX cash. Lets watch this in real time going forward. To be sure, is the can is kicked down the road some more, more highs are definitely possible...
Doc

Edited by Echo, 25 February 2013 - 12:15 AM.