40 replies to this topic

[Echo]

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839

congrats to you........really cool seeing it in Jan. I saw it just a few days ago and posted here under the title ''sp projection''.
As you can see I expect the same as you

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/8j9vb

Thank you. Yes, I think I posted this a few times.

No response, sigh.

Does the analog hold good, if you use weekly and monthly charts? I think that is important for the context because there is a difference in how the weekly and monthly internals/ externals are behaving in the 2 time periods you are comparing. Since this is your thread, I will let you tell us if the same analog holds good when viewed from the weekly and monthly context. TIA.

Too bad you passed up the opportunity to post a chart with some of your thoughts SP. At least you didn't call fellow posters "fools" like you did in the gold thread, lol.

[Echo]

A consideration, Doc, fwiw. This ledge may, in its entirety turn out to be an inverted one-which would signal a last run to a higher high before any meaningfull correction (I'm not saying the small drop here is over, I don't beliueve it to be.) Some considerations that would support this take being the height of summation, the lack of damage to the 5 and 10 percent indicators relative to depth-and the way the volume MCO's show the selling hasn't got much steam. This would coincide with what "my stuff" is saying. Just a thought...

securelstmile-Your work is some of the best here-truly enjoyed your blog as well-much love and praise, from my corner!

Hey Spooky,
There is enuf liquidity around for your scenario, for sure. Or is there??? The action of gold is saying that there may not be nearly the liquidity around now that there was a few weeks ago. I think gold is saying: be careful. I am not in favor of predicting crashes, too rare. A more likely scenario is a deeper drop this week, getting the NYMO STO to 5 or 10 and then the bounce.

Doc

[Echo]

Doc- here's your chart, btw:

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66533434857&a=167856033&r=1361758208507.png

Hey D,

Good to hear from you. Looks like you laid it out real nice. Now let's see if what we were both seeing comes to fruition. This is a tough business and this market is especially tough to make CIT calls in real time. Let's see how it turns out. Best to you and all your trades.

Doc

[Echo]

I will throw out one more reason we could be more like April-May 2010 than any other time. This is a chart I made up many many years ago. It works best at extremes AFTER confirmation crossing a short ema and an SAR. The ratio has only been up to +45 once before in the past 12 years. That was at the end of April 2010. We just dropped below the 6e and the SAR gave a sell on Thursday. Will it be different this time?????
Enjoy. Isn't TA fun?
Doc

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAS...5&listNum=1

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI:$QQV&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p96246603393&a=294017025&r=1361772387473.png

[Echo]

Here is the 12 year history. BTW, the Feb 2012 peak around +40 was a royal fail due to AAPL forging ahead and nearly doubling by its peak. Also the Dec 2007 bottom at -45 was a royal fail as the world credit markets were set to fail.

Doc, who doesn't blank/white out his indicator settings like some do...

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI:$QQV&p=D&yr=12&mn=2&dy=0&i=t19257075178&a=294017025&r=1361772758948.png

[securelstmile]

Nice indicator Doc. Thanks for sharing it. Last year aapl did well but the small caps did not. This year the small caps are leading which I think is more to the positive side of the ledger than having a single leader. I really do not think the 12 analog will continue for the rest of the year. As crazy as this sounds, I think it is not bullish enough. As previous posted via my blog I think Tick, Gold and Transports point to 89 as a real possibility. After we see new highs a move no lower that 1470-1480 or so then like in 89, the real rally in equities starts. To be fair, I have other things which lead me to this conclusion which I do not share. I appreciate your view.

[Echo]

Nice indicator Doc. Thanks for sharing it.

My pleasure.

Last year aapl did well but the small caps did not. This year the small caps are leading which I think is more to the positive side of the ledger than having a single leader.

This smallcap performance may be reaching an end soon if the RUT:RUI is any guide.

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT:$RUI&p=D&yr=20&mn=10&dy=0&i=p57414111226&a=62895778&r=1361806588322.png

I really do not think the 12 analog will continue for the rest of the year. As crazy as this sounds, I think it is not bullish enough. As previous posted via my blog I think Tick, Gold and Transports point to 89 as a real possibility. After we see new highs a move no lower that 1470-1480 or so then like in 89, the real rally in equities starts.

It would be a first time in history for the SPX not to trade lower than the close of the previous year for 2 years in a row.

To be fair, I have other things which lead me to this conclusion which I do not share.



I appreciate your view.

[IYB]

I will throw out one more reason we could be more like April-May 2010 than any other time. This is a chart I made up many many years ago. It works best at extremes AFTER confirmation crossing a short ema and an SAR. The ratio has only been up to +45 once before in the past 12 years. That was at the end of April 2010. We just dropped below the 6e and the SAR gave a sell on Thursday. Will it be different this time?????
Enjoy. Isn't TA fun?
Doc

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAS...5&listNum=1

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI:$QQV&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p96246603393&a=294017025&r=1361772387473.png

Another very cool and incredibly timely indicator from the Stock Doc! Thanks VM Doc. Your input here is always VM appreciated. And I've added it to my growing list....

Here, btw, is an update of the analog I've been showing of what would now be April 30, 2010:

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2010-02-01&en=2010-04-30&i=p48896203203&a=219265881&r=9071.png

....versus today, February 25, 2013 (intra-day):

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p40334764613&a=270840190&r=1361818920302.png

[SemiBizz]

Best indicator of all...

[securelstmile]

After initially posting this analog at the new years gap...I have now abandoned it for my 89 analog as I have been waiting to do. The fit is amazing, gold, trannies, I guess we shall see. Amazing the 20% drop in gold fits just so perfectly, then when the market pulled back then gold had the slightest of rallies just like now. Best to all.