36 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

[pdx5]

A five year old could understand that stocks aren't wealth. They aren't money unless you sell them. If you sell them someone else has to take some money they already possessed and put it in the market. If enough people try to sell them the rest will have their stock prices devalued. It's just a wealth transferal system. You can't get ahead of the game for a majority of people in the game.

Zero inflation is pure bunk. The CPI is as phony now as a $12 bill. Look at the average cost of groceries since say 2007, I used to pay maybe $80 a week for myself, now it is regularly $140. Look at a chart of the price of the average automobile over that time. Plus now the multiplier of the cost of a house vs. the average disposable income has never been higher. To look at a number from the government and pretend its true when you see otherwise with your eyes is disingenuous.

Agree whole heartedly.

Note to PF: You have 20-20 hind-sight for the past 5 years!
Now will you forecast the next 4 to 5 years for the SPX? TIA!
May be you can also see the future as well as you can see the past?

Edited by pdx5, 30 May 2013 - 02:39 PM.

[Sentient Being]

The problem with bubbles is that they burst. I'm mostly long and have been for a long time. My timing is almost always poor. but Am worried about when to head to the door in this market. Possibly sooner than later and then get back in if I get it wrong. Gold is looking nice past few days but no proof the bottom is in yet in my opinion. This isn't the first time on this long trend down it's bounced up to the falling moving averages but it is a very energetic bounce. I'd like to get back into Gold when it's a good long term bet. If the stock market is going to keep flying and the QE keeps raining down.....not much fear there to push people to Gold.

[gm_general]

The problem with bubbles is that they burst. I'm mostly long and have been for a long time. My timing is almost always poor. but Am worried about when to head to the door in this market. Possibly sooner than later and then get back in if I get it wrong.

Gold is looking nice past few days but no proof the bottom is in yet in my opinion. This isn't the first time on this long trend down it's bounced up to the falling moving averages but it is a very energetic bounce.

I'd like to get back into Gold when it's a good long term bet. If the stock market is going to keep flying and the QE keeps raining down.....not much fear there to push people to Gold.

I thought gold was overvalued, I still do. But if gold were to go down until late August, seasonally, that is a good time to buy. That is my only takeaway of value from Arch Crawford. I would be looking at slabbed $20 gold pieces then, just because I collect coins. I sure wish I had scarfed them up in 2000 or so when I was considering it. Coins prices are through the roof now. I did buy a bunch of slabbed Morgan silver dollars in the highest mint state I could reasonably afford. It was a good investment and I enjoy having them.

[da_cheif]

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

675 ono...... after 9000 pts up ur still laffing at the bull eh........

[da_cheif]

http://www.telegraph...rolls-over.html

and thats bullish.......rite?

[nimblebear]

arbs interesting article tks.

I call it the crack high of crack highs, the bubble of all bubbles the terminator Gov. bubble. Last time we saw something even close to this dilution of currency was Rome and this is larger since its most of the world doing it. It took a while to sink in then but we move at light speed now so what was a few centuries then could be a few decades or less now.

I would love to know the job solution for what robotics and 3D printing will do world wide to them and what to do with the masses of unemployed. An event horizon, a tipping point in the equation is likely a couple decades away but its coming. If I heard of 1 logical solution to address this issue I would not be so bearish way down the line and please do not say some new industries will pop we all know that but to fill this much unemployment gap plus the ever increasing world population to boot, will take nothing short of a miracle to solve the way I see it.

Lets enjoy the high in the meantime. Back to work for me.

Z, some ideas;

http://www.telegraph...the-future.html

I am actually very optimistic about the future, the information is spreading now at very high rates and the technology is advancing even faster. The best is still yet to come for humanity. The energy and healthcare will become significantly cheaper over the next 2 decades and the sustainability issues will be mostly addressed that appear impossible to achieve at the moment...

Of course, the resources are depleting, but it is only a matter of cheaper energy to replace most of them or find alternative or more efficient production methods. There will be new industries because most of the production that depend on the raw materials will have to be supplied from recycled materials or alternative productions (paper etc). These should create new jobs, but they mostly depend on cheaper energy and healthcare costs.

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

The information we see or learn about is worthless. particularly if it comes from anything related to the internet, TV, or any other form of 'modern' communication technology.

Face to face is still when and where all business/endeavor/life-result truly gets done.

There has been plenty of information available so as to solve every single one of man-kinds problems. Actually 100 times more than enough.

The trouble is, like energy, it needs to be harnessed.

More than 80% of the worlds population is still living at poverty levels. Billions dont even have access to sustainable food or water sources. The population continues to increase.

If anything, not only have we not perfected the ability to harness information to be used wisely, we've gone backwards in terms of effective communications and face to face dealings.

The distractions are many, but mostly revolves around the cell phone and the internet.

Information however, is used as a weapon, is used to manipulate, and used to concentrate power in the hands of the few, versus the many.

Always, there is reason for hope and optimism. Truly there is no other choice.

But until we even come close as a collective citizen population of the world, to admitting we are collectively are creating more problems, than we even dare solve, any present optimism is a delusion, designed to prevent you from simply taking your own life. Its called survival of the human species.

We are not presently doing a stellar job of that. At least not for the majority of the world's populace.

Americans are so completely self centered, and me driven, that there is simply no way our culture will be the catalyst for any real change. It will have to come from outside of this culture,and likely be thrust upon us. The majority of the blame for that, is the financial powers, the richest of the rich, and the elitist governments who are controlled by them.

[NAV]

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

675 ono...... after 9000 pts up ur still laffing at the bull eh........

No i am not laughing at the bull. I am laughing at the sentiment swings the market runs produce.

[arbman]

arbs no doubt for the haves that can hold on to it awesome! its the bulk I am talking about the have nots.
How long have I been saying cheap oil coming and cheap energy in general? a while now. It all gets cheaper for those left with these new jobs and some bank but so many more will not have jobs to pay for the little all this new stuff cost no matter how cheap. I think we become more of a socialist, welfare, policed world to keep the have nots in line. The haves will have so much they will have to pay for the rest and hope they can keep the have nots at bay until the tech is so strong it will not be a problem to police them. The demographics and time are against utopia. I really hope I am wrong this time.

Have nots? I would not phrase it this way. How do you compare the way people lived about 30 years ago to now? 100 years ago to 30 years ago and 200 years ago to 100 years ago? People live longer, they produce more, they consume more, many things that was not even possible are available on the internet for online ordering.

I am just trying to say, you have no idea how much better it will get. How the majority will continue to benefit, and I don't believe there will be an army of unemployed people either. The standard of living appears to be going down because we are depleting the resources, but we also find the ways to substitute them, and many issues that seem like terminal problems are getting solved.

There will be a new engineering field in 20 years, it will be called the 'sustainability engineering', it will be about consuming more efficiently and 100% recycling, every company will employ them: to cut the costs... The world population will also stop increasing in 40-50 years... Not because of famine, but people refusing to have more than 2 kids... The bottom line is the education is still the key and you can gain access to knowledge easier than ever... Just my 2c...

[NAV]

How do you compare the way people lived about 30 years ago to now?

Let's be objective.

30 years ago -

There were less stents in peoples' hearts, no artificial knees and hips
60 million Americans were not living on anti-depressants
One income family could make ends meet
Lesser failed marriages
Lesser (or no)incidences of school shootings
Lesser number of Sociopaths in the society

they consume more, many things that was not even possible are available on the internet for online ordering.

Oh yes, they have more gadgets to display to their friends ---- iProgress !!

Edited by NAV, 30 May 2013 - 10:31 PM.