36 replies to this topic

[risk_management]

So, if it's so good and you were invested and still invested since 2009 and you are holding stocks, exactly what is it that you are doing here on the board?

He must have made a bundle and retired now. And he must bored to death, post retirement. So he has taken up cheer leading as a day job.

PF sounds like a very bitter former bear.

[PrintFaster]

So, if it's so good and you were invested and still invested since 2009 and you are holding stocks, exactly what is it that you are doing here on the board?

He must have made a bundle and retired now. And he must bored to death, post retirement. So he has taken up cheer leading as a day job.

I am a semi-retired economist.

All my retirement money is in a buy and hold account holding the SPY.

I have smaller accounts I trade for fun, but only make a few trades a month, when the market is either way overbought and way oversold.

I trade based on the Summation Index and McClellan Oscillator, mostly when they get pushed to extremes or are at turning points.

I am much too old and slow to daytrade any longer, my eyes are no good.

[Dex]

"An astonishing 42pc of its tactical portfolio is now in US Treasuries." "Should there be another round of QE/helicopters, we must surely find a better way to inject the money. Today’s method is enriching the uber-elites, with a painfully slow trickledown. The Gini co-efficient of wealth inequality is soaring. The better alternative is to stick the needle straight into the veins of the economy - building roads, railways or nuclear power stations; but that is a subject for another column. " Two good points. Although I think the infrastructure route would be too slow. And, in the USA many of the dollars go overseas. That is the problem with a global economy. A country does not get all the bang for the buck spent.

[Dex]

So, if it's so good and you were invested and still invested since 2009 and you are holding stocks, exactly what is it that you are doing here on the board?

He must have made a bundle and retired now. And he must bored to death, post retirement. So he has taken up cheer leading as a day job.

PF sounds like a very bitter former bear.

PF sound like da_chief to me.

[dasein]

PF sound like da_chief to me.

you must be kidding! maybe you should read what PF says with a little more attention to nuance - bitter bear is not it but more in the right direction is my guess - a retired economist would definitely have an opinion on what is going on, and not just be an awed acolyte.

and he is NOT a follower of Krugman - maybe like Chargaff, maybe a little bitter that there are so many idiots getting nobel prizes these days. I am too, not bitter, more like enraged.

[dougie]

I finally realized that you are pulling our leg

We have already printed our way to prosperity.

We have just witnessed one of the greatest stock market rallies ever recorded.

This has been a once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich and only the Fed Worshippers who stayed the course reaped the benefits.

And not only that, we have been able to do it with massive stimulus and zero inflation.

Bernanke will surely end up being awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics and will go down as the greatest central banker in history.

Most of the gloom and doomer, gold and ammo clutching Zero Hedgers missed out on a great opportunity and they are all kicking themselves.

[arbman]

arbs interesting article tks.

I call it the crack high of crack highs, the bubble of all bubbles the terminator Gov. bubble. Last time we saw something even close to this dilution of currency was Rome and this is larger since its most of the world doing it. It took a while to sink in then but we move at light speed now so what was a few centuries then could be a few decades or less now.

I would love to know the job solution for what robotics and 3D printing will do world wide to them and what to do with the masses of unemployed. An event horizon, a tipping point in the equation is likely a couple decades away but its coming. If I heard of 1 logical solution to address this issue I would not be so bearish way down the line and please do not say some new industries will pop we all know that but to fill this much unemployment gap plus the ever increasing world population to boot, will take nothing short of a miracle to solve the way I see it.

Lets enjoy the high in the meantime. Back to work for me.

Z, some ideas;

http://www.telegraph...the-future.html

I am actually very optimistic about the future, the information is spreading now at very high rates and the technology is advancing even faster. The best is still yet to come for humanity. The energy and healthcare will become significantly cheaper over the next 2 decades and the sustainability issues will be mostly addressed that appear impossible to achieve at the moment...

Of course, the resources are depleting, but it is only a matter of cheaper energy to replace most of them or find alternative or more efficient production methods. There will be new industries because most of the production that depend on the raw materials will have to be supplied from recycled materials or alternative productions (paper etc). These should create new jobs, but they mostly depend on cheaper energy and healthcare costs.

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

[gm_general]

We have already printed our way to prosperity.

We have just witnessed one of the greatest stock market rallies ever recorded.

This has been a once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich and only the Fed Worshippers who stayed the course reaped the benefits.

And not only that, we have been able to do it with massive stimulus and zero inflation.

Bernanke will surely end up being awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics and will go down as the greatest central banker in history.

Most of the gloom and doomer, gold and ammo clutching Zero Hedgers missed out on a great opportunity and they are all kicking themselves.

A five year old could understand that stocks aren't wealth. They aren't money unless you sell them. If you sell them someone else has to take some money they already possessed and put it in the market. If enough people try to sell them the rest will have their stock prices devalued. It's just a wealth transferal system. You can't get ahead of the game for a majority of people in the game.

Zero inflation is pure bunk. The CPI is as phony now as a $12 bill. Look at the average cost of groceries since say 2007, I used to pay maybe $80 a week for myself, now it is regularly $140. Look at a chart of the price of the average automobile over that time. Plus now the multiplier of the cost of a house vs. the average disposable income has never been higher. To look at a number from the government and pretend its true when you see otherwise with your eyes is disingenuous.

Edited by gm_general, 30 May 2013 - 12:15 PM.

[zoropb]

arbs interesting article tks.

I call it the crack high of crack highs, the bubble of all bubbles the terminator Gov. bubble. Last time we saw something even close to this dilution of currency was Rome and this is larger since its most of the world doing it. It took a while to sink in then but we move at light speed now so what was a few centuries then could be a few decades or less now.

I would love to know the job solution for what robotics and 3D printing will do world wide to them and what to do with the masses of unemployed. An event horizon, a tipping point in the equation is likely a couple decades away but its coming. If I heard of 1 logical solution to address this issue I would not be so bearish way down the line and please do not say some new industries will pop we all know that but to fill this much unemployment gap plus the ever increasing world population to boot, will take nothing short of a miracle to solve the way I see it.

Lets enjoy the high in the meantime. Back to work for me.

Z, some ideas;

http://www.telegraph...the-future.html

I am actually very optimistic about the future, the information is spreading now at very high rates and the technology is advancing even faster. The best is still yet to come for humanity. The energy and healthcare will become significantly cheaper over the next 2 decades and the sustainability issues will be mostly addressed that appear impossible to achieve at the moment...

Of course, the resources are depleting, but it is only a matter of cheaper energy to replace most of them or find alternative or more efficient production methods. There will be new industries because most of the production that depend on the raw materials will have to be supplied from recycled materials or alternative productions (paper etc). These should create new jobs, but they mostly depend on cheaper energy and healthcare costs.

I am actually not bearish at all about the future, I am in the da_chief category about the perma-bull 3 of 3 up...

arbs no doubt for the haves that can hold on to it awesome! its the bulk I am talking about the have nots.
How long have I been saying cheap oil coming and cheap energy in general? a while now. It all gets cheaper for those left with these new jobs and some bank but so many more will not have jobs to pay for the little all this new stuff cost no matter how cheap. I think we become more of a socialist, welfare, policed world to keep the have nots in line. The haves will have so much they will have to pay for the rest and hope they can keep the have nots at bay until the tech is so strong it will not be a problem to police them. The demographics and time are against utopia. I really hope I am wrong this time.

[AChartist]

You have no idea, I have no idea, it could be alot more sinister than imagined. I have a monthly peak in June, three months down and final monthly awith qtrly peak in 1st qtr 2014, April as of now. Sure they think they right translate it to tv (s)elections. This 3 month dip is probably overlord jawboning to rescue treasuries from a weekly head and shoulder. It may be shallow for stocks in alternation with flash crash wave. Have you read through the stealth taxations targeted uniquely at median income labor, they won't even know about it to Apr 2014. My coworker learned that obamacare for his wife in 9k affordable premium per head per year, they don't know about that yet either. I have shut down all economic activity possible by these principals. Apparently consumers are doing same by external force, not aware of the right reasons. No new money in 401k, deferring income into confiscation. Less directly, they may even force "qaulified" gov accounts to buy treasuries into the terminal phase. No debt. Do not contract with them = kangaroo court of British Accreditation Registry (BAR) attorneys. No renting property from the tax authority. Prepare an offshore sanctuary. Accumulate real money coins coming up as scheduled in 3rd week June. Now I am putting my money in the private mutuals until that is funded to an allocated level. This could be good or bad, it is not the same as too big to jail protected class, it is a protected elite class on the other hand. It is an allocation. Coins have been too expensive to date and not moving with the paper fraud, I hope for a new attack in the next 2-3 weeks. I do fear they will naked short sell the miners into bankruptcy to scoop up the pieces into one big box pseudo gov nationalization, I only refer to the real deal that goes in the mattress.