40 replies to this topic

[slupert]

Go back 2o years and look at charts, when sell in may and go away is not valid the rally continues to first week in July.When the market is very bullish its the summer doldrums and lack of participation that cause a pullback rather than anything else, the depth depends on news to drive it.

[pisces]

Fib and Don are very talented Technicians,

And if most were more humble here we could and would learn a lot from them and others. Just as Dozens have thumbed there nose and left over the years because of the same thing. Fib has been saying up, and Don has been saying to the Moon... But hey people!!! Do you see where we are? 1950 and a week ago everyone was calling for 1700.

What is it so hard to give respect when its due? You may not like the messenger but shut up and listen to the message!

Amazing

what is so hard for you to follow them? just be long and stay long and when they disappear on corrections, disappear with them.do you need the rest of us to bow to their arrogance,and beg for a little more info..stop shorting ,its go to the moon,whats so hard about that ??

[pdx5]

In my view there is 6% potential advance remaining in $SPX in 2014. That is when the is likely to come out of hibernation, starving and and in a very bad mood. That is more likely if the advance takes place quickly, like by July.

[fib_1618]

just be long and stay long and when they disappear on corrections, disappear with them.

I can't speak for others, but I don't disappear during corrections. What I do, though, is usually make a post that I'm going to take a break, and for some, they have caught on and have profited nicely from my "non call" of this same upcoming period in the pause in the trend. Others, not so much. Based on the emotionality of platitudes and conspiracies that are witnessed on this, and many other stock market message boards, I have come to the conclusion in the last few years that very few wish to be nudged back into the primary technical trend focus when the grand majority are looking for a decline in prices. It would be like spitting into the wind with no real redeeming value except for the obvious result.

Do remember that I did call the EXACT bottom here back in April when all others were emotionally tied to a top in prices. So I guess it's a matter of picking and choosing my battles.

Oh, and since you decided to share your thoughts on the subject, I wanted to take a moment to thank you publicly, Pisces, for being the main motivator on why I broke out the emoticon barrage of the last several weeks. Your comments that I (and Don) were being "disruptive" to the board helped me to remain focused on my priorities in my attempt to share information, no less, it also provided another great entry point for the long side.

Fib

[pisces]

just be long and stay long and when they disappear on corrections, disappear with them.

I can't speak for others, but I don't disappear during corrections. What I do, though, is usually make a post that I'm going to take a break, and for some, they have caught on and have profited nicely from my "non call" of this same upcoming period in the pause in the trend. Others, not so much. Based on the emotionality of platitudes and conspiracies that are witnessed on this, and many other stock market message boards, I have come to the conclusion in the last few years that very few wish to be nudged back into the primary technical trend focus when the grand majority are looking for a decline in prices. It would be like spitting into the wind with no real redeeming value except for the obvious result.

Do remember that I did call the EXACT bottom here back in April when all others were emotionally tied to a top in prices. So I guess it's a matter of picking and choosing my battles.

Oh, and since you decided to share your thoughts on the subject, I wanted to take a moment to thank you publicly, Pisces, for being the main motivator on why I broke out the emoticon barrage of the last several weeks. Your comments that I (and Don) were being "disruptive" to the board helped me to remain focused on my priorities in my attempt to share information, no less, it also provided another great entry point for the long side.

Fib

sorry don,t remember using the word disruptive lately.

[risk_management]

Fib and Don are very talented Technicians,

And if most were more humble here we could and would learn a lot from them and others. Just as Dozens have thumbed there nose and left over the years because of the same thing. Fib has been saying up, and Don has been saying to the Moon... But hey people!!! Do you see where we are? 1950 and a week ago everyone was calling for 1700.

What is it so hard to give respect when its due? You may not like the messenger but shut up and listen to the message!

Amazing

Let me chime in here if I may.

Fib gets lots of flak here but I think most of that is undeserving. The message, except emoticons, might not be here lately but he has shared this principles long time ago. One only has to search this board for it. And nowdays when politely asked, he'll elaborate further. There might me some arrogance sprinkled occasionally but almost every poster here does it, especially when successful. Who really cares about that? The ideas and principles are given for free and you are free to test them further. See if they work or not for yourself. What's not to like about that? I think I said this before but if you take some of Fib's ideas, combine it with Terry Laundry's and add some of your own stuff, it's sufficient to tilt the odds well in your favor. That applies to short term trading since I pretty much trade like you.

I was tempted to play short last week and I think I made a single bearish post here. By the time morning arrived I changed my mind and never actually went short. I must say that even though I missed the signal to go long this last advance, Fib's principles were in the back of my mind and they prevented me to short and pretty much kept my account intact.

As for the other fella, I don't know how did he entered the conversation. He has his own board and I challenge you to peruse that board and find anything of value to your trading. You'll have really hard time going through that cesspool. If a person has been in this business for decades and is still searching for respect, then there must be something terribly wrong. I'd think that if anyone had any value, respect would've found them one way or the other long time ago.

BWTFDIK

[claire]

<<Let me chime in here if I may. Fib gets lots of flak here but I think most of that is undeserving. The message, except emoticons, might not be here lately but he has shared this principles long time ago. One only has to search this board for it. And nowdays when politely asked, he'll elaborate further. There might me some arrogance sprinkled occasionally but almost every poster here does it, especially when successful. Who really cares about that? The ideas and principles are given for free and you are free to test them further. See if they work or not for yourself. What's not to like about that? >> I agree, and I'm sure I speak for many lurkers here.

[robo]

The Mystery Grows: Goldman Finds That Virtually Everyone "Sold In May"


The great mystery of the endlessly levitating market continues to confound everyone, even Goldman Sachs. Because while the market soared in May (and has continue to surge in June) contrary to the sell in May mantra, when peeking beneath the market's covers, Goldman has found that most investor groups did just as they are supposed to do for this time of the year: they sold!

From Goldman's David Kostin:

While many investors puzzle over the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields to 2.6% alongside the S&P 500 at an all-time high, recent data suggest they moved flows in the same direction. Mutual fund, futures, and ETF data show a shift away from stocks and towards bonds during the past month. Pension funds have also sold stocks and bought bonds in 1Q. Equity market performance supports a pro-risk stance offset by a muted return outlook given high current valuations.

US equity flows have weakened during the past month with outflows from US equity mutual funds totaling $10 billion since April 30. The outflows have been broad-based with all categories affected other than Equity Income funds. The preference for yield is also evident in continued strong flows into taxable bond funds as well as outperformance by stocks with high dividend yield. Small-cap funds have experienced the largest outflows consistent with Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500 by 625 bp YTD (5.9% vs. -0.3%).

Flows are also weaker in relative terms as both bond and international equity funds continue to receive inflows. During the past five weeks $12 billion was withdrawn from ICI domestic equity mutual funds. Meanwhile, $7 billion moved into international equity and $11 billion flowed into taxable bond funds. Both hybrid and municipal bond funds also had inflows. Lipper fund flow data shows a similar but less pronounced trend with $8 billion of outflow from domestic funds in May of which $7 billion was small cap funds.
The combination of fund flows has pushed our Rotation Index to its lowest level since June of last year.



http://www.zerohedge...d-goldman-finds

[pdx5]

Bonds are safer than stocks at the moment only because economy is likely to stay in doldrums for 2 quarters. This is the biggest divergence...IMHO...bonds rising and stocks rising at the same time. It is like shooting bullets from both ends of the pistol.

[Dex]

Bonds are safer than stocks at the moment only because economy is likely to stay in doldrums for 2 quarters.

This is the biggest divergence...IMHO...bonds rising and stocks rising at the same time. It is like shooting bullets from both ends of the pistol.

It's good to see that others don't look at just stocks.