Posted 01 July 2015 - 01:53 PM
Again we end the month of June with the price getting close to the 10 SMA but no close below it like I expected. However, June's candle was typical of the type of candle I saw at the tops of 2000 & 2007 and the next months candle, or July's closing candle, could be a possible Short signal long term. What has to happen is we get a candle on July 31 that closes below the Monthly 10 SMA. So two scenarios pop out at me. For this to happen I think we need to see the SPX selloff more and recover into July 31 but close below the 10 SMA. The second possibility is that we are going to bounce here in July much like August 2000. Either can happen but the key will be to either scenario is which was we go from here. If we start dropping below the daily 200 to like 2020 or 2000 or even 1977, then we know the first idea is in play. If we start heading up and the 200 was support, then #2 is in play.
In either case, the odds at this point in time and IMHO, are that we have maybe 6-8 weeks before the real move down starts to take place. It could be early August or September but no way to tell until it sets up.