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#11 TechMan

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Posted 10 October 2015 - 09:58 AM

What concerns me is that whether any weakness, is very short term in nature or intermediate term that warrants another trip to the bottom of the range.


That's the question.

I had commented about a likely 2-3 days of setback due to heavy resistances between SPX 2000 and 2035 in my last thread. Friday's Doji Star is a sign of that. Had it not been for the lack of volume (participation), Friday could easily have been a down-day. AAPL rallied 2.39% and contributed 9% of the NDX volume had also helped lift the market.

So, I can see the merits of selling Friday's close. I can even see a likely 1% - 2% selloff on Monday and/or Tuesday. But those VST moves are for my day-trading accounts. I'm more interested in getting the confirmation of whether or not it's going back to another 6% trading range like the previous 6 months except at the lower level. A new trading range means a likely retest of 8/24/15 low 1867.

#12 TechMan

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Posted 10 October 2015 - 05:40 PM

We all know that AAPL is the #1 component of the Nasdaq 100 along with the other 4 large techs that make up about 30% of its ETF, QQQ. As AAPL goes, so goes the market. So, pardon me for keeping track of AAPL in my recent threads. Its performance is yet another reason that's prompted me to cash out.

AAPL is the only top 5 components of the NDX that shares the same characteristics as the major indices like the SPX, Dow, & NYA of having a negative 100-200 DMA crossover with a flat or declining 200-day SMA.

The only time AAPL has a negative 100 & 200 SMA crossover since 2009 bottom was nearly 3 years ago, on 1/24/2013. Yes, it's post earnings, but its 200-day SMA had already been in decline. AAPL continued to sell off and lost 24% in the next 3 months. It took almost 10 months to repair this technical damage.


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Edited by TechMan, 10 October 2015 - 05:49 PM.


#13 cycletimer

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Posted 10 October 2015 - 05:49 PM

Guess what Dave! You'll have an extra long a weekend like the rest of us, Monday the market is closed for Columbus Day! My case from the Racenswood wine club arrived today (from a recent trip to Sonoma) and my weekend will be very relaxing.....


Banks are closed, but the market is open on Monday.


That's right. Stock market and futures are open, but bond market is closed.

Anyway, Ravenswood Winery's one of my favorites. I know you must've had a great time there. Good for ya.


Open Monday? My Bad. I assumed everything was closed..... had I known that I would have purchased October puts versus Novembers! I'll pick up some Oct on Monday. Anyway, yes Dave, Ravenswood was terrific. In NAPA we toured the "Castle" in the upper Northern region and it was spectacular. In Sonoma it was Ravenswood and Buena Vista (joined that wine club too, very expensive but so yummy!).
Of all the Cabernets my favorite store-bought Cab is 14-Hands.
You ever tried it?

#14 TechMan

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Posted 10 October 2015 - 06:00 PM

Oh yeah, 14 Hands Merlot. I'm a Merlot guy, I know, I know... Anyway, good luck with your puts, bubba. I may join you on Monday. I've done virtually nothing for those big gains over the past 2 weeks. I'm missing those overnight moves of 40-60 points and quick reversals. It's time to bring 'em back on Sunday night. :=) Have cash and ready for some fast money.

#15 TechMan

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Posted 11 October 2015 - 09:34 AM

For the opener tonight, both Tokyo and Shanghai are near the top of their recent ranges (Nikkei 18430 & SSEC 3200) while the Yen's in consolidation.


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Edited by TechMan, 11 October 2015 - 09:39 AM.


#16 TechMan

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Posted 11 October 2015 - 07:23 PM

Well, Tokyo's off line tonight - Sports Day holiday. ============= At this point, this is just my technical "hunch" that's yet to be validated. SPX may not be able to close above 2017.

#17 Bearearns

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Posted 11 October 2015 - 09:27 PM

We all know that AAPL is the #1 component of the Nasdaq 100 along with the other 4 large techs that make up about 30% of its ETF, QQQ. As AAPL goes, so goes the market. So, pardon me for keeping track of AAPL in my recent threads. Its performance is yet another reason that's prompted me to cash out.

AAPL is the only top 5 components of the NDX that shares the same characteristics as the major indices like the SPX, Dow, & NYA of having a negative 100-200 DMA crossover with a flat or declining 200-day SMA.

The only time AAPL has a negative 100 & 200 SMA crossover since 2009 bottom was nearly 3 years ago, on 1/24/2013. Yes, it's post earnings, but its 200-day SMA had already been in decline. AAPL continued to sell off and lost 24% in the next 3 months. It took almost 10 months to repair this technical damage.


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the red line is an oscillator? Thanks

#18 TechMan

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Posted 11 October 2015 - 10:56 PM

the red line is an oscillator? Thanks


Yes. I should've noted that.


=====================


Shanghai's breaking out: +3.38%. Looks like that's given futures a lift right around the time Shanghai opened. Not much going on after that burst.

Tough loss for the 9ers. Could've been 2-3 instead of 1-4. Big difference. Raiders could've won it today too. No fun for the Bay Area sports fans.

#19 salam

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Posted 12 October 2015 - 06:26 AM

Oh yeah, 14 Hands Merlot. I'm a Merlot guy, I know, I know...

Anyway, good luck with your puts, bubba. I may join you on Monday. I've done virtually nothing for those big gains over the past 2 weeks. I'm missing those overnight moves of 40-60 points and quick reversals. It's time to bring 'em back on Sunday night. :=) Have cash and ready for some fast money.



One of my favorite Reds is from Lebanon, Chateaux Musar...at least 5 years old are ready to drink.


I'm 1/3 short at 2019 Entered today.

I'm expecting a retest in the 1990 area then a move back during the Fed shenanigans to 2020-45
I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#20 TechMan

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Posted 12 October 2015 - 10:12 AM

As though Friday volume's not low enough, both the Nasdaq and the NYSE volume so far has been lower than Friday by 20%-30%. I'm assuming machines have done majority of trading so far today. Without volume, it's too unpredictable. Good luck, Salam.