22 replies to this topic

[barbu]

SPX week 02/01-02/05

 

Fibonacci/wave extensions projection comes out multiple targets so additional Zoom-in and Fine-Tune process is required. To begin with for this week, i set my preferred target 1967.31-1978.47 for Local wave series  ⓒ, and 1964.39-1978.70 for large “wave” L4/Fibonacci retracements.

 

The intraday/short term resistance are 1946.94, 1950.33, and supports are 1940 +/-, 1935 +/-, 1931-1928, 1920-1915. In weekly basis, 1865-1876 is an obvious support zone  ( see chart: http://forexrainbow....95086466971.jpg),  The local wave   ⓑ “cratered" down to 1872.70 but did not make a “Punch Through”.

 

19 January 2016

Fibonacci retracement 0.236/1788.29  is considered a reasonable gauge. As long as the downward movement is maintained above the 1779-1788 support zone, bull still has the chance assaulting 2069/2070. (To be elaborated, a lengthy discussion is not wroth posting at this moment)

The long term weekly chart gives an overall pictorial view

chart: http://forexrainbow....28165500593.jpg

 

The local wave series ⓐ ⓑ ⓒ is merely a part of “wave” L4.

For me,  L4  will morph into something still not very clear. The hanging key is the time length of this wave, there  is no stringent rule to stick with. Here is my my best guess: :   By combining the already deployed wave structure and the Fibonacci retracement 0.236/1788.29 criteria, a flat expansion that peeks 2K boundary and pokes 1850 would be the most likely outcome, it hangs till the new bear catalyst arrives. imho, Market is the master. Those E-wavers who try to follow the trails are in a rather passive manner.

 

Cycle wise  ( for reference only )

The 33-week +/- cycle marked a Low on 01/20/16 (the projection was 01/15/16, off  2 trading days, market closed on MLK's "I have a dream" on 01/18) , if it recurs with the averaged cycle length 160, is due on 09/02/16 +/-.  If the  200 * π /3 cycle ( 209 Trading day cycle ) recurs with a cycle length 207,  is due on 06/24/16 +/-. The shorter harmonic cycle is very hard to perceive with creditable performance. After i scratched my hairs many times  i dropped the quest efforts,  the only speculation on the table is the irregular 25-38 TD harmonic cycle due on 03/14/16 +/- (use 38), a pure wild guess, thus all.

 

when facts change, i change my mind.

 

Fibonacci retracement

 

Large “wave” (emphasis on Fibonacci relationship, label does not comply with Elliott wave rules)

 

Local wave series ⓐ ⓑ ⓒ  follows wave series ➀ ➁ ➂ ➃ ➄

 

cycles ( for reference only)

[SilentOne]

Hi Barbu,

 

If the 33 week cycle low is in (as you seem to suggest here), that gets you thinking about the larger cycles. If you back it out, we either go up and retest (probably more than once) later in the year with a bullish resolution with new highs eventually, OR, we've already seen the 42 month and 7 year cycle lows in August 2015, and we make lower highs from here onward. A binary type of situation. One is bullish at least into next year, the other fairly bearish as markets do nothing but down and sideways for years. Interesting long term conundrum here.

 

cheers,

john

[gannman]

the problem i have with any bullish scenario is the bank index. it has already taken out the august lows by a good amount and i believe has not finished wave 1 down yet. we will see 

[SilentOne]

gannman,

 

By no means do I think it is an up and out of here move out of a 33 week cycle low (if we've actually seen that). But I follow the $TSX very closely. Stocks under the 200 day moving average were ~13 on Jan. 20th, about the same August 24th, and similar levels in the summer August lows of 2011. We are pretty washed out here on the downside in January.

 

cheers,

john

[barbu]

Hi Barbu,

 

If the 33 week cycle low is in (as you seem to suggest here), that gets you thinking about the larger cycles. If you back it out, we either go up and retest (probably more than once) later in the year with a bullish resolution with new highs eventually, OR, we've already seen the 42 month and 7 year cycle lows in August 2015, and we make lower highs from here onward. A binary type of situation. One is bullish at least into next year, the other fairly bearish as markets do nothing but down and sideways for years. Interesting long term conundrum here.

 

cheers,

john

 

Hi John

 

Thank You for sharing your thoughts

 

The  “conundrum” also has been reflected by the following E-waver

http://investorshub....ge_id=119829558

 

As far as a trader’s concern, i am focusing on those trad-able swings, for examples: from 2116/2081 to 1812, and then from 1812 to a possible middle to high 1900 target. imho. a capture rate  30-50% of the full swing would be a very good trade.   

 

 

 

29 January - 11:01 AM

The current active wave ⓑ seems still has some ambiguity,

 

29 January  - 05:04 PM

he middle way between 1905  and 1973 is 1939, so the next big show is  the “battle of Middle way”

 

31 January - 07:08 PM

The intraday/short term resistance are 1946.94, 1950.33, and supports are 1940 +/-, 1935 +/-, 1931-1928, 1920-1915. In weekly basis, 1865-1876 is an obvious support zone

 

The local wave ⓑ ambiguity can be removed if the session low 1920.30 establishes itself as  a Terminal (not necessary the “Low” in whole sequence). Coincidentally, the 0.500 wave extension is 1920.01 (see chart), a good proof wave ⓑ is a meaningful label.

 

currently, the upward local waveⓒ is active. Assume the wave apex is 1940.24, in case wave moves below 1899.45-1895.03, then the waveⓒ is terminated.

 

 

[SilentOne]

And I will add this. Check out the monthly hammer the $TSX has on its chart here. At best I would be neutral and all in cash, not short. Since I have been all in cash of late (with the except of the miners), I have had to take some risk. GLGT.

[SilentOne]

Yes Barbu,

 

That is really good analysis by POKERSAM. It sums up what I see in our cycle work. I don't know what the outcome will be but I am willing to follow price and not try to predict which way it all go.

 

cheers,

john

[barbu]

02/01/16 SPX after close

 

closed at the middle way:  1939.38  (  (1905  + 1973)/2 = 1939  )

 

Session high 1947.20,

local wave ⓒ 0.786 @ 1947.06.

Aiyaaya .... , just shy one Fib. step to the preferred target (1.00 1967.31 ~ 1.118 1978.47)

 

imho: Bulls might  have luck for another ½ to 1½ sessions,  let's see

 

the resistance is 1940 +/- and 1946.93-1964.39 ( in this chart: http://forexrainbow....50717712720.jpg )

 

[barbu]

02/02 In session

 

02/01 05:20 PM

Bulls might  have luck for another ½ to 1½ sessions,  let's see

 

02/01  12:22 PM

in case wave moves below 1899.45-1895.03, 1894.53,  then the waveⓒ is terminated.

 

- Ongoing Waveⓒ retraces 50% and struggles

- In case index moves below 1894.53,  then the waveⓒ is terminated and wave may morph into a different structure.

- The critical support zone is 1865-1876 ( see chart: http://forexrainbow....95086466971.jpg),

[barbu]

Hi Barbu,

 

If the 33 week cycle low is in (as you seem to suggest here),  ........

 

cheers,

john

 

Hi John

 

There were evidences that a 33 +/- calendar week cycle (159 +/-  TD cycle) did not make  a dominant Low around its adjacent cycle marks. The shorter harmonic cycle can produce a  significant Low shortly afterwards.  08/09/11, 04/02/12 are good examples. see chart:  http://forexrainbow....85117720974.jpg

As i mentioned on 01/31, after i scratched my hairs many times  i dropped the quest efforts, the open speculation on the table is the irregular 25-38 TD harmonic cycle due on 03/14/16 +/- (use 38), and 02/24/16 (use 25). We can defer the decision till 03/14 +/-.  The cycle projection is fascinating, for middle term (~3 months), counting from 01/20, the Gann 90 degree is due in late April/16, it  may produce another significant Low, However, before it transpires, it is an open speculation.