We are rolling into a very long bear market. Death by a thousand cuts ...
Hi John
I wrote the following comments (see re-post) , i kept a hook due to its political sensitivity, details has been "self-censored", You wait & see.
In essence:
(1) The nature law can not be altered forever
(2) history was a series of causal chains interacting with each other (E.H. Carr),.....
(3) chickens come home to roost
Posted 13 December 2015 - 02:44 PM
12/12/15 SPX weekend
http://www.traders-t...is/#entry737072
"Fundamental" analysis, observed
11/04/15 11:49:24 AM with Edit
Hot Soak: The engine remains hot for a period of time after it is turned off
Two of the major engines to drive the stock bull market since 2009
(i) QE is behind us.
(ii) China 4 trillion stimulus package (2008-2012) is behind us. the “Hot Soak” phenomenon dragged another 2 years. in reality, China entered the deleveraging cycle since 2012, their leaders warned “painful” time ahead honestly.
China Minister of finance says: The next 5 years will be a painful period for the reform of Chinese economy, and the main goals need to be achieved by 2020. http://europe.chinad...nt_21794795.htm
China’s Premier Li Keqiang has ruled out the use of quantitative easing as a policy to help stimulate growth in the world’s second-largest economy. http://readynews.org...15/id32517.html
On November 9, 2008, China launched a 4 trillion Yuan (US$ 586 billion) economic stimulus package. As of November 15, 2008, it was revealed that the central government would only provide 1.2 trillion Yuan of funds. The rest of the funds will be reallocated from the budget of provincial and local governments (this was the root cause of the problems) After 2 years and 4 months, the National People's Congress endorsed China’s 12th Five-Year Plan on March 14, 2011 said China will take steps to cool off its red-hot economy (bubbles)by increasing domestic consumption and de-emphasizing exports. However, these strategic adjustments came in the tough period when China has to deleverage its 4 trillion Yuan economic stimulus aftermath, meanwhile, met with a series of international slowdown, in particular in Euro zone. China is an emerging nation, economic plans are the primary driving force moving the nation ahead, monetary policy is conducted for dealing with short term tactics.
in essence:
- stock bull market dual engines were in shutdown mode, The QE “Hot Soak” works at its finest Crescent moment. Bulls' only hope is the QE hot money flows back to the US stock market continuously. Fictitious Economy cycle is about how to “move” capital according to a predetermined strategic time table, However, China is "pulling" USD's leg with his deliberative tactic maneuver. Let’s see what will happen ....
Edited by barbu, 05 February 2016 - 11:56 AM.
