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SPX thoughts

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#321 tsharp



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Posted 11 March 2018 - 05:45 PM



Just taking a moment to post a follow-up chart to last week.  This is the SPX Actual weekly chart with the same predicted moves as the chart applet that was lost in my Think or Swim app... not a bad job two years ago!  I still think the SPX needs one more leg down, but as always... time will tell.


Cheers until next time!


Link to SPX Weekly Actual: https://postimg.org/image/64zq7ypk9/



#322 tsharp



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Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:01 PM

Hi all,


On 3/11/18 I posted an update on the SPX progress since the chart I published on 4/9/16. At that time, I suggested the SPX needed one more leg down to complete the present correction.




As of today, that correction is well underway with my three favored targets to complete this correction being: ~2592, ~2462 and if the fecal matter really hits the oscillating blades, even as low as ~2332.


Personally, I favor the middle target of ~2462, which would make wave-a = wave-c, then wave-iv would be complete, with wave-v to go, with a potential target of SPX ~3600.... time will tell.


You can find the updated chart of the SPX through today’s close here: https://postimg.org/image/yznra47rt/



Edited by tsharp, 22 March 2018 - 07:02 PM.

#323 MDurkin



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Posted 23 March 2018 - 02:09 PM

Nice chart.

#324 tsharp



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Posted 01 April 2018 - 09:50 AM

Good morning, and happy Easter to all!


In my last update, I suggested another down leg was likely, citing three targets for the low of the correction: 2591.67, 2461.72 and 2332.11.  The SPX dropped to a low of 2585.89, and then bounced from there.  It's a bit too early for me to declare the correction over, and I do favor a drop to at least the middle target of 2461.72 before the correction is complete and another upward move to the target I cited two years ago, on 4.9.16, of ~3600.


Technically, the correction may be over with the low of 2582.89, so if the SPX moves up from here, the next stop would be the final stop of this bull market run, though I'm open to a wave-B high that could go higher than the ATH of the bull market, though that is something that would still be several years out... time will tell.




Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/y4ec2jt61/

#325 tsharp



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Posted 02 April 2018 - 08:31 PM

Hi all,


My saved charts just suddenly re-appeared, so I thought I'd update the SPX weekly, daily and hourly charts.


On the weekly charts, the slow setting on the momentum indicator shows the bull market is still in tact.  The indicator hit an ATH with the last price peak, and I suspect it will bounce at the lower parallel UTL, which will also be at about the +100 line that defines whether the trend is still upward or downward... time will tell.




Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/6hgbwlx7d/


The Daily SPX is in a down trend, this would define the IT, versus LT trend, with the LT trend still up, and the IT trend being down.  With the weekly chart as a guide, I suspect the zero line on the indicator chart will provide support and a bounce, which would put the IT trend back upward.




Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/404kpgvc9/



The SPX hourly chart is also showing a down trend (ST trend), and would not be a buy until the zero line on the indicator chart is broken to the upside... one would cover shorts when the -100 line is broken.




Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/xfa8yjs6x/




Edited by tsharp, 02 April 2018 - 08:34 PM.

#326 tsharp



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Posted 03 April 2018 - 03:14 PM

Hi all,


As I looked over the charts of the major indices, it seemed clear to me that my suggestion that the LT uptrend is still intact is a correct position, as you will be able to discern by the position of the momentum indicator in the charts below.  The chart for the DJI is not included, as I'm having some issues with the feed on it, and hope to have it resolved soon.






Link to NYA chart: https://postimg.org/image/i8mqrcoi1/







Link to Nasdaq chart: https://postimg.org/image/6ksowf9jd/







Link to RUT chart: https://postimg.org/image/bw7lh5ird/







Link to SOX chart: https://postimg.org/image/ubs2ekrqx/






Link to BKX chart:  https://postimg.org/image/oovpgw761/

#327 tsharp



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Posted 15 April 2018 - 11:25 AM

Hi all,


For over a month I have been looking for lower-lows to complete wave-c:iv.  I had three targets, basis the SPX: 2591.67, 2461.72 and 2332.11 for the completion of wave-c:iv, with the first being hit several weeks ago, with the low of 2585.89, though I still favored the second lower target of 2461.72.


On the FF board I recently pointed to the rising wedge formation, suggesting the possibility of it breaking downward to complete the wave-c:iv, though it is also possible, from a fractal perspective, that wave-c:iv was complete at the 2585.89 low, but from a momentum perspective, I think the price needs to drop lower and perhaps create a divergence of momentum against price.


In Friday's trading, the price did actually break downward from the rising wedge and closed below the same.  Then a few hours later, we learned that a missile strike began in Syria, so it seems there will be a continuation of the downward break from the rising wedge, especially in light of what happened last April, when the first round of missile strikes took place.


Below I included the daily and week S&P 500 futures charts for the April 2017 period, when the first missile strike took place.  You will notice the market, as is the case now, was already in a downtrend, and for the week following the strikes, intensified the downward pressure, which was over by the following week.


The bottom line from my perspective is that the correction could be done from a fractal point of view, but from a momentum point of view, I think the market needs to drop to a lower-low and perhaps create a positive divergence against the momentum line.  On the daily SPX chart, perhaps a drop to the lowest trine of Andrew's Fork would be a good target.


The IT trend is still in place, as every momentum indicator on the daily and hourly SPX chart continues to be in a position to support further downward price movement... if the alternate fractal count I showed as a possibility is in play, then we will also continue to see higher volatility with large price swings in both directions until the corrective action is completed... as always, time will tell.






Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/tgom6yp2x/





Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/41lhwfj1l/




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/si3nqo6ux/




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/8orjy0ymx/




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/mifwn7gzd/




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/h7102jscp/

#328 tsharp



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Posted 21 April 2018 - 04:03 PM

Just a few words and a couple older charts I've shown a time or two over the years...


First the weekly SPX with my preferred fractal count.  I do not think the corrective action is over quite yet, as I would like to see a bit more balance between the previous wave-ii (fuchsia) - which was a running correction lasting about six months - and the present wave-iv... so creating a bullish flag for a bit longer would create better symmetry between the two... just how I see the fractal world.




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/okgfow4a1/


Then the montly SPX with an ATR setting showing that a CIT would take place this month with a closing below ~2633 - wave-iv is a great place to create confusion on both sides of the bull/bear market aisle, so I would not be surprised to see that happen, then the resumption of the bull market upward to the ~3600 level... as always... time will tell.




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/bt29immux/

#329 tsharp



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Posted 25 April 2018 - 09:43 AM

Hi all,


Just thinking out loud here with one of the possible scenarios I have on the back burner.  Under this scenario the volatility continues, but the correction takes another couple of months to play out... time will tell.




Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/3nzvimg49/

#330 tsharp



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Posted 27 April 2018 - 11:00 AM

There was a RH&S formation that could have taken the SPX back up to the ~2700 range, but it appears to have failed today, so my best guess scenario is a continuation of the corrective wave-iv to a low of ~2462, basis the SPX.





Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/v2771iol5/