21 replies to this topic

[jmicou]

NYA stopped Friday at confluence of calcs and the DT line from the 11/3/15 high and just below the 200 DEMA. In arithmetic, the TL from 2009 & 2011 is coming up to meet the DT from the 2015 high around 10400 where another confluence is, along with the 2007 high of 10387, and could be the bull/bear line, unless the bear were to assert itself before then.

Next week is FOMC & quad witching. Could get interesting.

If above the aforementioned area, then P3 in 2015 with ABC bear with broken TL and 2011 Andrews Pitchfork down to the 2016 low for P4, thus P5 up. Otherwise, another leg down for a lower low. Breadth has been bullish.

Tom McClellans call is based on Eurodollar COT 1 year offset. It inverted in 2011. Is there a common theme with the ECB in 2011 & 2016? Could there be another inversion?

[tsharp]

I agree with SemiBizz, there is not a bear market here.  

 

I find the analogy on McO forced, though it doesn't hurt to at least consider those possibilities.  

 

The cited Jan '09 hits were when the SPX was still 39%ish off it's ATH (1,547 vs 944) - clearly a bear market situation.

 

Last week's hit was at a time with the SPX in the 5%-6% off the ATH (2135 vs 2022) - not a bear market by my way of thinking.

 

Will we see another corrective wave down?  Sure... markets do not move in linear fashion, but are dynamic and take on the path of fractal growth, so we will have more corrections going forward, but I suspect we will continue to see higher-highs and higher-lows, in bull market fashion.

 

FWIW, just as an aside, the market behavior of last week seemed so reminiscent of the market action of the late 90s... just my two cents worth. 

[NAV]

It's a bear market by my definition on the SPX. If the CBs decide to throw a few more trillions we can very well reverse that trend. But monthly trends don't turn on a dime. Be patient if you are an investor. For a trader, all these discussions are meaningless anyway. 

Edited by NAV, 12 March 2016 - 02:13 PM.

[alexnewbee]

 

 

Show me the BEAR MARKET.. then we'll worry about some kind of capitulation to a rally.

RUT is still in bear since 2015, BKX is in bear since 2007! 

SPX and NDX probably not yet, or it is just teddy bear..

[SemiBizz]

You're slipping, you forgot the DJT, XOI, SOX, and I am sure there are others, I just don't follow all of them.

 

The SPX and Nasdaq are not in a bear market by the classic definitions of such... and -

 

We're not in a bear market until the entire market is in harmony.

 

Now my memory is pretty good though, and I do recall the RUT and DJT led this market up with new all time highs...

 

So we'll see if the rest of the pile finally let's go or not.

[alexnewbee]

 

We're not in a bear market until the entire market is in harmony.

 

Now my memory is pretty good though, and I do recall the RUT and DJT led this market up with new all time highs...

 

cannot be, there will be bull somwhere exactly as there is still bear in BKX since 2007, there was a reason why I named it

that is true, we have to wait what will develop out of this.

[Iblayz]

Actually, I find it rather strange that Tom McClellan would use something that has nothing to do with market breadth to argue against what market breadth is saying. I have listened to him talk about that deal and how it has worked in the past but.......even though it won't surprise me to see the market turn down in late March/early April.......I don't believe that it will turn down right now into a low the first week of April.

[tommyt]

Either way, until the Mc Osc goes through 0 and the summation turns, we probably wont get any real down that one should position for. We are on the back side after topping out on the Mc Osc, where it makes a lower highs and price makes higher highs.

[Iblayz]

I just don't see a reversal (that sticks) right now. In fact, it won't surprise me to see highs on the 14th AND the 22nd. That's not a prediction yet.....just an expectation based on the data that I see.

 

 

Now expecting a high on the 15th and if that price is penetrated, looking at the 29th intraday. 

 

 

I said both of the above. The first one was March 8th and the second one was Friday the 11th. I am going to play like Donald Trump here and disavow that second statement. I am expecting a high tomorrow (14th) with an attempt to sell it on Tuesday. With recent strength in mind, I expect that attempt to fail or, if it doesn't, to leave enough evidence of higher prices afterward. Either way, I will worry about the next date after this one and the behavior around it. I will say this......I am not convinced that the work on the downside is done. To me, it's just a matter of when the next turn comes and from where....and the big one (turn that is) probably won't be the next one.       

Edited by Iblayz, 13 March 2016 - 07:48 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

From the posts above, I read that just about everyone here is bullish...

As the Greed Index is at the level of the late 2015 top.

http://money.cnn.com...fear-and-greed/